Sports
Related: About this forumThe Microsoft Engine That Nailed The World Cup Is Predicting Every NFL Game
Here Are Its Picks For Week 1
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft-engine-nailed-world-cup-143528755.html
The predictions come from a model by Bing Predicts that takes into account 2013 results, offensive and defensive stats, margin of victory, location, weather, and public sentiment (which is meant to help identify real-time factors, like injuries)....
Cortana did well at the World Cup, and even picked Germany over Brazil in the semifinal when other statistical models had Brazil as the heavy favorite. So if you're the gambling sort, it might be wise to take these picks into account....
Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks Seahawks win (74.2% chance)
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons Falcons win (61.4% chance)
Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams Rams win (67.4% chance)
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers Steelers win (70.2% chance)
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Philadelphia Eagles Eagles win (75.4% chance)
Oakland Raiders at New York Jets Jets win (62.9% chance)
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens Ravens win (59.8% chance)
Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears Bears win (64.4% chance)
Washington Redskins at Houston Texans Texans win (51% chance)
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs Chiefs win (64.4% chance)
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins Patriots win (61.4% chance)
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Buccaneers win (56.6% chance)
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys 49ers win (68.8% chance)
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos Broncos win (77.8% chance)
New York Giants at Detroit Lions Lions win (61.4%% chance)
San Diego Chargers at Arizona Cardinals Cardinals win (58.2% chance)
joeybee12
(56,177 posts)like for the World Cup?
a kennedy
(29,663 posts)Vikings, Miami, Bengles, Bills, Titans win that I know of...... So what's that average?
Me thinks it ain't all that great.
JonLP24
(29,322 posts)to create any meaningful model. I'm curious what statistics this model uses and how they're weighed, it could be incredibly flawed aside from using 2013 results.
JonLP24
(29,322 posts)I think Brian Burke's probability model is the best out there of any sport. This is what he uses and weighs ONYPPA 1st, DNYPPA 2nd.
Offensive net passing yds per att
Offensive rushing yds per att
Offensive interceptions per att
Offensive fumbles per play
Defensive net passing yds per attempt
Defensive rushing yds per att
Team penalty yds per play
Home field advantage
http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2009/01/how-model-works-detailed-example.html
Countless times he explains why he doesn't weigh turnovers heavy -- http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/26/sports/football/week-4-game-probabilities-better-outlook-for-giants.html?ref=sports&_r=0
At the 5th Down Blog he waited until week 4 before coming out w/ them because you need large enough samples from this season to have a meaningful model. The 5th Down Blog is no more (it was the best site for NFL news & analysis) he is at a new location but has probabilities out already. He uses 2013 but w/o a model based on this season it isn't worth much.
http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/93106928/week-1-nfl-picks-statistical-model-will-leitch#!bQb3WM