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geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
Mon Nov 25, 2013, 12:11 AM Nov 2013

It's official: Tom Brady is just flat out a better football player than Payton Manning.

Tonight's game should end that debate for good.

Manning gets spotted a 24 point lead by the opposing team's fumbles, and he's still not good enough to beat Brady.

Broncos may be the first team in NFL history to lead a game by 24 points and wind up losing it by 24.

For whatever reasons, Brady's teams win tough games, and Manning's teams implode in them.

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It's official: Tom Brady is just flat out a better football player than Payton Manning. (Original Post) geek tragedy Nov 2013 OP
sssshhh....this game is not over yet. NRaleighLiberal Nov 2013 #1
Broncos have no defense out there without Rodgers-Cromartie. geek tragedy Nov 2013 #2
Nope, that goes to the Houston Oilers blowing it against Buffalo in Jan. 1993. TexasTowelie Nov 2013 #3
Warren Moon was another guy who put up huge numbers except when geek tragedy Nov 2013 #4
Every time this debate comes up pipi_k Nov 2013 #5
Brady is a top 5 of the modern era geek tragedy Nov 2013 #6
Pretty much... pipi_k Nov 2013 #8
Flacco is on his way, I think. geek tragedy Nov 2013 #10
Hey - where's Bart Starr? TBF Jan 2014 #12
I don't consider Starr to be of the modern era. geek tragedy Jan 2014 #13
I see - yes that makes sense. TBF Jan 2014 #14
I would take Favre over Starr any day. n/t Goblinmonger Jan 2014 #15
And here's some fighting words for you Goblinmonger Jan 2014 #16
Oh dear ... TBF Jan 2014 #17
He has numbers on his side Goblinmonger Jan 2014 #18
Let's not forget, brady is the only QB ever in NFL history, to be 100 games over .500 DrewFlorida Nov 2013 #7
I just read that pipi_k Nov 2013 #9
The interesting thing about the number of championships JonLP24 Jan 2014 #11
Thought I'd kick this for today's game fishwax Jan 2014 #19
Look for Brady to light them up, big time. geek tragedy Jan 2014 #20
Of course, what I meant to write is that with the injury to NE's top QB geek tragedy Jan 2014 #21
I was worried when Rodgers-Cromartie went down fishwax Jan 2014 #23
and I almost gagged when they showed horseface, elway, holding the AFC trophy..... a kennedy Jan 2014 #22
Kick. Should #18 just retire after this humiliation? nt geek tragedy Feb 2014 #24
Maybe if it was any other team JonLP24 Feb 2014 #25
Seahawks defense is good, but not THAT good. geek tragedy Feb 2014 #33
1 game on the road which was their second straight week JonLP24 Feb 2014 #35
They were certainly a great defense, but 85 geek tragedy Feb 2014 #36
I also add the 2002 Bucaneers JonLP24 Feb 2014 #37
Pssst...the Seahawks beat Brady, too.... Wounded Bear Feb 2014 #26
they did, but... pipi_k Feb 2014 #28
Brady kept the Pats in that game, as opposed to Pick-Six Peyton nt geek tragedy Feb 2014 #32
Tom Brady IS the better quarterback. Rockholm Feb 2014 #27
I saw Eli's face pipi_k Feb 2014 #29
Joeybee and I discussed this recently - TBF Feb 2014 #30
I wonder how much of it is Belichick. geek tragedy Feb 2014 #31
Maybe so - TBF Feb 2014 #34

NRaleighLiberal

(60,015 posts)
1. sssshhh....this game is not over yet.
Mon Nov 25, 2013, 12:13 AM
Nov 2013

Definitely a tale of two halves. very strange game. Most points are being scored into the stiff wind!

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
2. Broncos have no defense out there without Rodgers-Cromartie.
Mon Nov 25, 2013, 12:19 AM
Nov 2013

They're lost.

And Manning throws the ball ten yards away from his receiver if a defender gets within 5 yards of him because he's afraid of getting hurt. They quite honestly should bench him until those ankles heal. He's just awful tonight.

TexasTowelie

(112,233 posts)
3. Nope, that goes to the Houston Oilers blowing it against Buffalo in Jan. 1993.
Mon Nov 25, 2013, 01:32 AM
Nov 2013

It was 28-3 at half and Houston scored another TD early in the third when the Oilers blew the 32 point lead and the Bills won in overtime 41-38.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
4. Warren Moon was another guy who put up huge numbers except when
Mon Nov 25, 2013, 02:17 AM
Nov 2013

it counted.

Patriots appear to be the best team in a mediocre conference

pipi_k

(21,020 posts)
5. Every time this debate comes up
Mon Nov 25, 2013, 11:47 PM
Nov 2013

and Peyton Manning fans want to name HIM the best QB ever, I want to scream.

What I would say, with all due respect to Manning, is that he and Brady are two of the best QBs ever.

Although if it ever really came down to picking one over the other...I wonder what would happen if the stats and wins and other factors were presented devoid of identifying details. No names attached to either record. Decide on the stats and facts, not on a sense of name or team loyalty.

One player has been five times to the Superbowl in 12 years, won three.

Won how many...ten? AFC East Championships in 12 years. On track to probably win AFC East for the 11th time.

Had one near-perfect season. I still think 18 - 1 is better than the Dolphins' 16-0.

And...last but not least...one QB did all that mainly surrounded by players who were virtual nobodies before they played with him. Look at what he's been able to accomplish with all the rookie players this year. Look at all the times the team around him has changed.

One QB has managed to win games and do great things with so little.

If I'm not being influenced by the name, I pick the guy who has done all that.

Read down to the very bottom of the list and the name says "Brady".

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
6. Brady is a top 5 of the modern era
Tue Nov 26, 2013, 01:17 AM
Nov 2013

Manning is probably closer to top 10.

Top 5, imo, are Brady, Montana, Favre, Elway, Aikman. Guys who could and did win under any circumstances.

Then comes Manning, Marino, Young, Brees. Maybe Roethlisberger or Aaron Rodgers.

pipi_k

(21,020 posts)
8. Pretty much...
Wed Nov 27, 2013, 12:54 PM
Nov 2013

How I would call it, too.

I think a lot of people get too wrapped up in stats...passing yards, whatever.

For me, it's the ability to win under very difficult circumstances.

How many of the other "greats" have had some excellent weapons at their disposal.

Just last year, for example, after the Ravens won the SB, the pundits were all but pronouncing Joe Flacco an elite QB.

And this year, their new darling is Cam Newton.

I say bullshit to that. A QB doesn't become elite because he won a Superbowl. He doesn't become elite because he's had a great season. He doesn't even become elite when he beats Tom Brady in a home game (as Newton did).

A QB becomes elite over the course of years when he wins through adverse conditions and circumstances.

In the case of the newer/younger generation of QBs...if, someday, they do the same thing Brady has done, then and only then are they elite.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
10. Flacco is on his way, I think.
Wed Nov 27, 2013, 03:45 PM
Nov 2013

9-4 postseason record with most of those on the road.

Newton is, to use the cliche, a rising star.

TBF

(32,064 posts)
12. Hey - where's Bart Starr?
Fri Jan 3, 2014, 09:29 AM
Jan 2014

I'd never let my hubby know it (he's a Marino and Brady fan) but they are 2 of the best ever. Favre? Eh. This Packer fan would rather add the amazing Bart Starr to your list!

Some stats from wiki: He was named the Most Valuable Player of the first two Super Bowls and earned four Pro Bowl selections. He was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame and Green Bay Packers Hall of Fame in 1977. He won the league MVP award in 1966. Starr has the highest playoff passer rating (104.80) of any quarterback in NFL history and a playoff record of 9–1. Starr's career completion percentage of 57.4 was an NFL best when he retired in 1972. Starr also held the Packers' franchise record for games played (196) for 32 years, through the 2003 season.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
13. I don't consider Starr to be of the modern era.
Fri Jan 3, 2014, 11:38 AM
Jan 2014

I don't disagree with any of your points--just think he belongs in the group of Unitas, Baugh, etc.

 

Goblinmonger

(22,340 posts)
18. He has numbers on his side
Fri Jan 3, 2014, 04:56 PM
Jan 2014

More Pro Bowls. Almost 2x the pass yardage. More than 3x the rushing yards (Fran is 4th all time?). Basically identical completion % and passer rating. When Fran retired he held pretty much every major passing record (completions, yards, & TDs). Main difference is Super Bowl titles which just means Starr had a better team around him.

DrewFlorida

(1,096 posts)
7. Let's not forget, brady is the only QB ever in NFL history, to be 100 games over .500
Tue Nov 26, 2013, 11:21 PM
Nov 2013

In my biased opinion Tom Brady is, without doubt, the greatest quarter back of all-time.

pipi_k

(21,020 posts)
9. I just read that
Wed Nov 27, 2013, 12:58 PM
Nov 2013

this morning.

As much as I don't like judging by stats alone, if the stats match the performance/wins, then I think they should also be part of the equation.

Oh, and another thing I found out...for teams coming back from a 24/0 deficit, before Sunday it was like 5 out of over 500 games. Now it's 6.

JonLP24

(29,322 posts)
11. The interesting thing about the number of championships
Thu Jan 2, 2014, 02:00 PM
Jan 2014

Is I think Brady is a better QB after he won the Super Bowls (first two, third one is when he started becoming elite).

Pats had an awesome D those years.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
20. Look for Brady to light them up, big time.
Sun Jan 19, 2014, 04:38 PM
Jan 2014

Rodgers-Cromartie is injured. New England put up 34 points in the half he missed earlier this year.

Broncos are in trouble.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
21. Of course, what I meant to write is that with the injury to NE's top QB
Sun Jan 19, 2014, 05:57 PM
Jan 2014

that Manning would light them up and the Patriots were in trouble.

fishwax

(29,149 posts)
23. I was worried when Rodgers-Cromartie went down
Sun Jan 19, 2014, 08:05 PM
Jan 2014

I think that was the biggest issue with the Broncos in the second half back in New England. They just couldn't find a way to adjust. Just like last week they couldn't recover when Chris Harris went out. So when R-C was down in this game I was worried. Fortunately (from my perspective) he came back.

Anyway, I'm happy to see Manning and the Broncos avenge the regular season loss.

And I'm sure Brady and the Patriots will be back next year, as usual.

a kennedy

(29,672 posts)
22. and I almost gagged when they showed horseface, elway, holding the AFC trophy.....
Sun Jan 19, 2014, 07:21 PM
Jan 2014

Will never forget the Super Bowl in 1997.

JonLP24

(29,322 posts)
25. Maybe if it was any other team
Sun Feb 2, 2014, 10:06 PM
Feb 2014

He faced probably the baddest defense since the 2000 Ravens, or '85 Bears, or '91 Eagles. Not only that they were first in rushing and 2nd in conference in offensive yards per pass attempt. Even when receivers made catches they were drilled right away. To top it off he had an average defense with him and I don't know why people underrate Russell Wilson but he has plenty of experience against top flight pass defenses playing in the NFC West as well as facing Carolina and New Orleans who improved under Ryan defensively.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
33. Seahawks defense is good, but not THAT good.
Thu Feb 13, 2014, 11:06 AM
Feb 2014

They got lit up by Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton, and lost at home to Arizona.

The truth about Manning is that he's a bad quarterback if he's going up against a good, healthy defense, especially if it's high stakes. He pads his numbers against mediocre and bad defenses. Rotisserie quarterback who doesn't have the arm strength to make passes against tight coverage and tries to rely on trickery.



JonLP24

(29,322 posts)
35. 1 game on the road which was their second straight week
Thu Feb 13, 2014, 07:39 PM
Feb 2014

I don't think losing at home to Arizona is a good example of their defense isn't that good. They forced 6 turnovers in that game and pretty much held them in check except for Andre Ellington (Cards are like the 2010 Chiefs who handed it off more to Thomas Jones while Jamal Charles was leading the league in rushing - handing it off more to someone who isn't there best running back). It was the Cardinals defense that won that game who also finished t-5 (San Francisco) in defensive yards per pass attempt who was playing as well as anyone in the NFC at the time.

It was also Seattle's only loss at home in the past 2 seasons.

When Seattle's defense isn't making mistakes and flying all over the place and hitting like they were things start to snowball and that is when they take over. They defeated SF at home by a combined 71-16 score who had 24 wins in 2 seasons.

They would have a lot more scores that look like this Super Bowl result if they didn't have play two top 5 pass defenses in division as well as in-conference. They held Carolina on-the-road to 7 but since Carolina's D is solid, they only scored 12.

on edit

Manning went 26/39, 377 yards, 9.6 YPA and 3 TDs - 0 Ints in a conference championship game against the #1 pass defense NYJ (as well as #1 overall defense).

Next season, Jets weren't as good but still top 10 he went 18/26, 225 yards, 8.65 YPA, 1 TD - 0 INT. They didn't win but he didn't have what I'd consider a bad game. He destroyed a top 10 pass D in back-to-back years (Denver) in the post-season. People downgraded those victories for some reason but no one else shredded them as well as he did. Does he struggle against top defenses? Yes but so does any QB. Brady has struggled against top defenses (2009 obvious example) as well as some average ones but it is interesting the Brady's numbers are better in his last 16 playoff games (8-8) than his first 10 (10-0).

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
36. They were certainly a great defense, but 85
Thu Feb 13, 2014, 07:47 PM
Feb 2014

Bears and 2000 Ravens were just another level of dominance. Ravens won the Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer.

I think it was more a case that Manning&Co were overrated, with their numbers inflated by running up the score on inferior opponents. Brees and Kap both did a lot better than Manning did in the postseason against the Hawks.

JonLP24

(29,322 posts)
37. I also add the 2002 Bucaneers
Thu Feb 13, 2014, 08:26 PM
Feb 2014

I meant as best since but may not be greatest ever or as great as them. Kaepernick & Brees has more experience against their D but they looked bad against them as well. Kaepernick went 13/28, 127 yards, 4.5 YPA, 0 TDs, 3 Ints (before I say more Kaepernick threw 11 picks this year - 5 to 5 different teams and 6 to the Seahawks).

Kaepernick was 15/29, 175 yards, 6.0 YPA, 1 TD - 1 INT. He was 19/36, 244 yards, 6.8 YPA, 1 TD - 1 INT in his match-up the season before.

Even if you include the playoff, he has been held well below his career and regular season averages in every matchup.

In Drew Brees' first matchup against the Seahawks he went 23/38, 147 yards, 3.8 YPA, 1 TD - 0 Int

Also you have to factor no-one is going to be mistake free on defense at all times as they were in the SB.

-----

The person's statistical analysis I trust most compared the defenses, he talks about the advantages and drawbacks of this comparison using the expected points added but when it comes football, he knows what kind of stats to toss in the garbage (YPC when running backs are often put in plays designed for short yardage and goalline situations so he created a Run Success Rate % state which is based more on if they run improved their down and distance - but third backs lead this category which has that as a drawback(Team SR% is more meaningful)) and what to use to start the conversation.

From what I can tell he comes to the same conclusion as you. They are probably the best defense since the 2009 New York Jets.

2013 Seahawks Defense: In the Conversation for Best Ever?

Back to the Seahawks. Their 2013 defensive EPA, including the entire postseason, was -5.9 points per game. (Negative numbers are good for defenses.) The 2000 Ravens' was -12.9, and the 2002 Bucs' was -10.6, both much better than SEA. But those are the raw EPA numbers, unadjusted for season.

When we adjust for season, things look a lot better for the L.O.B., but not that much. In fact, there are several defenses that come in ahead of Seattle's 2013 squad after adjusting for season. Besides the 2000 BAL squad and the 2002 TB squad, BAL '03, '06, and '08 all finish ahead of SEA. PIT '08 does as well. last year's CHI defense was only a hair behind, and the '09 NYJ defense is right there too. And this year's CIN defense wasn't very far behind SEA. To put things into perspective, the distance between the 2000 BAL defense and the 2013 SEA defense, accounting for era, is about the same as the difference between this year's SEA defense and this year's BUF defense, a very good group but not in the conversation for best ever.

Adjusting for season helps level the playing field, but it's still not completely fair to SEA. [As a Baltimore fan, I wanted to stop right there. But in fairness I had to take the next step.] The Seahawks faced a number of great offenses, including DEN (of course), NO (twice), ATL, IND, SF (3 times) and CAR. Accounting for strength of offensive schedule paints a different picture.

<snip>

BAL posted a -30 EPA vs NYG, holding their offense scoreless in the 2000 SB. Think about that for a second. That means the defense alone created 30 points of net score differential. TB posted -25 EPA vs OAK in the 2002 SB, but some of that was 'trash time' stuff. SEA notched just -16 EPA vs DEN, as its offense did the rest. Still, -16 is amazing against an offense that otherwise averaged +15 EPA per game.

It's just too bad we don't have the numbers prior to 1999. I'd love to see how defenses like the '85 Bears would rank, plus the 1914 Pottsville Maroons, and all the other great defenses I'm ignorant of. I'd also love to see how the sport as generally evolved across the decades.

Are the 2013 Seahawks defense the best ever? Of course not. Should they be in the conversation. Definitely not. Unless you're a sports talk radio host, then of course you put them in the conversation! Line 2, you're on the air...

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2014/02/2013-seahawks-defense-in-conversation.html

pipi_k

(21,020 posts)
28. they did, but...
Thu Feb 6, 2014, 12:19 PM
Feb 2014

the score was 24 - 23

Not a blowout embarrassment on the biggest football day of the entire season against what people were touting as "The BEST offense in the NFL".


Rockholm

(4,628 posts)
27. Tom Brady IS the better quarterback.
Wed Feb 5, 2014, 11:54 AM
Feb 2014

Peyton Manning is always portrayed as the "everyman" while Tom Brady is the "golden boy." The reality is that Manning was a #1 draft pick, is football royalty and is revered in Louisiana, Colorado and I would have to guess, Indiana.
Tom Brady was a Michigan QB, drafted #199. His family is solidly middle class from California. Brady was in the right place at the right time and he has been richly rewarded. I think Brady is hated nationwide because his WINS, is handsome, has a gorgeous wife and family.
It is a shame that he is reviled while Manning is celebrated.
Manning sucks. Always has and always will. He may have the numbers, but not the victories. His smug demeanor and grumpy puss when things don't go his way is laughable. Just as was Eli's mug towards the end of the game.
Just my two cents.

pipi_k

(21,020 posts)
29. I saw Eli's face
Thu Feb 6, 2014, 12:29 PM
Feb 2014

toward the end of the game and tried to put myself inside his head...


"OMG...my poor brother!!! Getting his ass kicked so badly!!!


MUWAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! Who still has more rings, Bro??? Neener, neener!!!"


TBF

(32,064 posts)
30. Joeybee and I discussed this recently -
Fri Feb 7, 2014, 08:53 AM
Feb 2014

Peyton Manning and Wes Welker are crazy fundies.

Tom Brady on the other hand was a strong Clinton supporter and married the model Gisele - who is very into environmental issues. Not even a contest. He's not only a great quarterback, he's a cool person.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
31. I wonder how much of it is Belichick.
Thu Feb 13, 2014, 10:55 AM
Feb 2014

If Brady were playing for someone like Tony Dungy, he'd probably be a lot better liked.

TBF

(32,064 posts)
34. Maybe so -
Thu Feb 13, 2014, 11:14 AM
Feb 2014

I don't know much about Belichick other than the winning record & perpetual scowl on his face! lol

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