Religion

Warren Stupidity

(48,181 posts) Fri Nov 6, 2015, 08:27 AM Nov 2015

THE PROBLEM WITH PEW’S SCIENCE & RELIGION POLL

In which religion gets a special exemption for analysis by polling:

The Cubit has recently discussed, at length, the inherent limitations of polls and surveys when it comes to religious belief. Some of the nuts-and-bolts methodological limitations are relevant here—in particular, the poll obscures the views of religious minorities, and it doesn’t report its response rate, which means we don’t know how many people just ignored the pollsters outright (judging by comparable Pew polls, the non-response rate was probably around 90%).

But the main issue with this survey has to do with the way the central questions were formulated.

Most popular polls, like Pew studies, are conducted over the phone using a list of simple multiple choice questions. Many forms of public opinion are accurately predicted this way, including voting behavior, because they are easily distilled into multiple choice questions. “Are you voting for Hillary/Sanders or Rubio/Christie next week?” is a straightforward question.

Religious beliefs, on the other hand, are fuzzy. They’re dynamic and complicated. It isn’t unusual for Americans to fall one way on an ethical issue when discussing it at church and then, in another context later that week, shift a few degrees over. Polls can’t capture this flexibility.

http://religiondispatches.org/the-problem-with-pews-science-religion-poll/
There, isn't that special?

7 replies

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Highlight:

THE PROBLEM WITH PEW’S SCIENCE & RELIGION POLL (Original Post) Warren Stupidity Nov 2015 OP

Reasonable Doubts podcast!! longship Nov 2015 #1

I liked their suggested headline for this: bvf Nov 2015 #2

LOL that's perfect. n/t trotsky Nov 2015 #3

The authors seem rather easily surprised: muriel_volestrangler Nov 2015 #4

One more problem with Pew Brettongarcia Nov 2015 #5

but of course that is all that polls do: they measure how people respond to poll questions Warren Stupidity Nov 2015 #6

religion gets a special exemption for analysis by polling Yorktown Nov 2015 #7

longship

(40,416 posts)

1. Reasonable Doubts podcast!!

Reply to Warren Stupidity (Original post)

Fri Nov 6, 2015, 08:48 AM

Nov 2015

Dr. Luke Galen, one of the cohosts, is a research psychologist and professor who has studied and spoken about this for years.

On the podcast, sadly no longer being produced, Dr. Galen takes on this very topic in a semi-regular segment entitled "God thinks like you".

Fortunately, the podcast archive is available. It is one of the best podcasts I've heard on religion, albeit from an atheist perspective. They really get into things, like Christianity, Islam, Buddhism, etc. Their series on the Bible is pretty much dead on. They tackle textual criticism fairly completely. And yes, they do it all with a sense of humor.

I highly recommend it.

Here: http://freethoughtblogs.com/reasonabledoubts/

Oh, almost forgot. R&K

bvf

(6,604 posts)

2. I liked their suggested headline for this:

Reply to Warren Stupidity (Original post)

Fri Nov 6, 2015, 11:19 AM

Nov 2015

"Someone Prompted a Small Sample of Americans to Choose One of Two Options Signifying the Relationship Between Science and Religion, and You Won’t Believe What Happened Next!"

Great encapsulation of a really dumb poll.

trotsky

(49,533 posts)

3. LOL that's perfect. n/t

Reply to bvf (Reply #2)

Fri Nov 6, 2015, 11:29 AM

Nov 2015

muriel_volestrangler

(101,355 posts)

4. The authors seem rather easily surprised:

Reply to Warren Stupidity (Original post)

Sat Nov 7, 2015, 10:13 AM

Nov 2015

Pew also reported two surprising aspects of these general views.

First, although most Americans apparently believe religion and science to be in conflict, far fewer think that their own religious beliefs conflict with science.

Really? That surprises them? That's basic human nature - to think that your own beliefs, opinions and understandings are consistent, but to be able to see the conflict or inconsistencies that others may have. This is as surprising as a poll in which people tend to say they're a better than average driver.

Second, the least religiously observant are most likely to say that science and religion are in conflict.

Again, this is because they are looking at it from an objective point of view - it's not their own religious views they're trying to make look rational.

In simpler terms, Pew has given us a narrow, skewed insight into how a select subset of Americans respond to leading questions, posed by strangers, over the phone.

Hey, where did 'skewed' come from? The article has been arguing that the questions are too general, or too specialised, or too binary, and now, they've just called the insight 'skewed' for no reason at all. And no hint as to which direction they think it 'skews'. Though, by their later use of "the media often focus on stories about religion and science in conflict, amplifying the voices of militant atheists and creationists", they look like the kind of arseholes who want to smugly say "we're the correct middle; it's everyone on both sides of us who are wrong and shrill, by definition".

Brettongarcia

(2,262 posts)

5. One more problem with Pew

Reply to Warren Stupidity (Original post)

Mon Nov 9, 2015, 05:36 AM

Nov 2015

It takes respondents at their word. If say 50% say they attend church regularly, Pew doesn't go to the churches on Sunday, to find out respondents are lying.

Warren Stupidity

(48,181 posts)

6. but of course that is all that polls do: they measure how people respond to poll questions

Reply to Brettongarcia (Reply #5)

Mon Nov 9, 2015, 08:19 AM

Nov 2015

We can extrapolate from those answers to how people actually behave, but really statistical polling across the board is at best a very imperfect model of human behavior. Things get a bit more interesting if the same questions are asked over long periods of time using the same polling methodology. If 10% fewer people claim to attend church regularly, regardless of their actual church attendance, that in itself is interesting.

Yorktown

(2,884 posts)

7. religion gets a special exemption for analysis by polling

Reply to Warren Stupidity (Original post)

Mon Nov 9, 2015, 07:31 PM

Nov 2015

I would like to give practical examples of how stupid and dishonest it is to claim special rules for polling of religions. It is a well known fact that poll results are 'twisted' by what respondents think will make them look good.

• socially acceptable behavior gets overrated.
Practical examples: soap and toothpaste. Their use is systematically over-declared.

• socially less acceptable behavior gets underrated.
Practical examples: beer, wine and spirits. Their use is systematically under-declared,
heavy users being few and far between to volunteer the fact.

In polling too, religion asks for special privileges? Why am I not surprised?

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