Science

LongTomH

(8,636 posts) Tue Dec 23, 2014, 04:07 PM Dec 2014

Can Elon Musk and SpaceX put humans on Mars before NASA?

Space Exploration Technology's founder and CEO, Elon Musk dreams big; he's already established his own electric car company, solar power company and the most successful private launch company in the world. For years, his really big dream has been to put humans on Mars before NASA? NASA's current plans are for a manned mission by 2035; Musk says he can do it by 2026:

Elon Musk, speaking to CNBC about how the future of humankind is rather closely tied to our ability to get off this planet, is “hopeful that the first people could be taken to Mars in 10 to 12 years” — with SpaceX rockets and spacecraft, of course. This lines up with some of his previous comments about establishing a Mars colony in the 2020s. Meanwhile, NASA recently announced that it would try to put a human on Mars in 2035 — and only if it can secure the necessary funding and carry out a number of important milestone missions beforehand. Tantalizingly, Musk also spoke about SpaceX going public on the stock market — perhaps to raise the necessary funds to fly (and establish a colony?) on Mars.

Musk, CEO of SpaceX and Tesla, has long been an advocate of setting up a Mars colony. Way back in early 2012 he said he’d worked out a way of sending an “average person” on a round-trip to Mars for $500,000. His tune seems to be a little more muted now, but his new estimate of 10-12 years — before 2026 — is still fairly optimistic. To get there, SpaceX would probably use the Falcon Heavy launch vehicle (basically the Falcon 9 but with two huge booster rockets stuck onto it), and a variant of the recently announced manned Dragon spaceship. NASA’s Mars mission would use the Orion spacecraft (which is finally almost ready for testing), and the new Space Launch System (which isn’t expected to be ready for a few years yet).

SpaceX is already testing a reusable rocket to make space transport more economical, a must for large scale Mars colonization.

A privately-funded Mars mission is a big order; but, Musk will not have to deal with the 'cost-plus' pricing that makes everything NASA does more expensive:

......prices are expected to rise significantly in the next few years, according to defense department officials. Why? Musk says a lot of the answer is in the government’s traditional “cost-plus” contracting system, which ensures that manufacturers make a profit even if they exceed their advertised prices. “If you were sitting at an executive meeting at Boeing and Lockheed and you came up with some brilliant idea to reduce the cost of Atlas or Delta, you’d be fired,” he says. “Because you’ve got to go report to your shareholders why you made less money. So their incentive is to maximize the cost of a vehicle, right up to the threshold of cancellation.”

Note that bit about "the threshold of cancellation!" Anyone remember what happened to Bush I's Moon-Mars initiative? Projected costs kept going up, until the eyes of Congress glazed over, and the whole project was cancelled.

3 replies

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Can Elon Musk and SpaceX put humans on Mars before NASA? (Original Post) LongTomH Dec 2014 OP

I do not know if it wil be private or another country but I would bet anything CBGLuthier Dec 2014 #1

Bush I's "battlestar galactica" moon mars thing never had a chance. Warren DeMontague Dec 2014 #2

Unlikely. Such an endeavor will likely take half the planet working together Warpy Dec 2014 #3

CBGLuthier

(12,723 posts)

1. I do not know if it wil be private or another country but I would bet anything

Reply to LongTomH (Original post)

Tue Dec 23, 2014, 04:12 PM

Dec 2014

that NASA does not go to Mars first. The days of America leading the voyage into space are gone. This nation does not have the will to do it. Once we had the guided missile tech that the space race was an excuse to develop we stopped innovating.

Warren DeMontague

(80,708 posts)

2. Bush I's "battlestar galactica" moon mars thing never had a chance.

Reply to LongTomH (Original post)

Tue Dec 23, 2014, 04:46 PM

Dec 2014

It wasn't a question of costs going up, they were ridiculous right out the gate, so the proposal was never really taken seriously.

I think NASA is on the right track now because they are doing what they should have done, focusing on building capabilities that we've been sorely lacking, most importantly a heavy lift rocket.

But I wouldn't underestimate Mr. Musk, and if nothing else he'll be lighting a fire under NASA's ass.

I don't care who gets there first, I'm just glad humanity is moving again. It's about time.

Warpy

(111,282 posts)

3. Unlikely. Such an endeavor will likely take half the planet working together

Reply to LongTomH (Original post)

Tue Dec 23, 2014, 05:03 PM

Dec 2014

I'm beginning to wonder if Musk is bipolar, honestly. Ideas that grandiose generally result from at least hypomania.

What he might do is manage to create a shuttle capable of ferrying equipment up to an orbital space dock for assembly into a vessel capable of reaching Mars and then returning. However, he doesn't have the resources (or the time) to create the whole thing.

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