Korean economists present dire consequences for South Korean economy in 20 years

if the country does not accept 300,000 immigrants per year

This is a very fascinating post about a video on Youtube on the problems the Korean economy could face due to a shortage of people due to the high number of elderly.

I'll translate by summing up their points as much as I can.
Problem:

By 2017, South Korea's population will start decrease for the first time ever.

By 2020, if South Korea continues the same policies doing nothing, the South Korea's economic growth (even with generous forecasts of global growth rate of over 3% average), will fall by over half to 1% range (we are only 5 years away from this scenario). This is due to the fact the very rapidly aging population tend to save instead of spending. With more and more population fail to spend, the domestic economy shrinks due to lack demand. Lack of demand leads to job losses and lower economic growth, which in turn leads to more loss of demand, which in turn leads to lower growth, and this spiral continues. South Korea is exactly in the same position as Japan in 1994. The situations of Korea of 2015 and Japan 20 years prior is eerily similar. Japan also debated with immigration back then, and chose not to allow immigration. The price they paid was over 20 years of little economic growth and astronomical national debt.

With more elderly population, South Korean government's tax collection becomes unstable, while at the same time their spending costs rise exponentially due to rapidly rising social welfare and healthcare needs of the increasingly burdensome elderly population.
South Korea's new era of lower growth period of 2% range in 2015 was no fluke. South Korea's exports to other nations may have been effected by global economic slowdown this year, however, for a while now, South Korea's spending on domestic economy has been disintegrating due to lack of demand as the population rapidly ages. This lack of demand from the domestic population is the real cause of current economic malaise. And if nothing changes fast, the consequences of economic collapse in some industrial and service sectors will mean that Koreans haven't seen how much worse it could get (they can hardly cope with the current 2% growth rate, how will they react when the growth rate goes down to 1%?). Some of the most hard hit industries will be construction, real estate, and education. With fewer people needing and buying homes, there will be empty homes leading to serious prices declines and asset meltdowns which could cause a severe economic crisis in South Korea since many Koreans are highly leveraged due to home assets. Private education will also be hit hard, as the number of children declines, there will be far less need for schools and after hour private lessons. These will combine to form a serious chain linked effect on other service sector industries in the economy.

Proposed Fixes:

There have been proposed fixes to remedy this situation. That includes putting more women and older workers back to work. The economists agree that this will help somewhat, but it's far too inadequate to resolve the demographic crisis South Korea is facing today.

Another proposal is for South Korea to increase and expand the number of current temporary guest foreign worker system. Again, this is inadequate to solve South Korea's problems. Bringing in temporary low skilled guest workers who are forced to leave after few years in South Korea means that these workers have no stake in the Korean economy. Therefore after South Korea has trained them, South Korea will lose these workers who may end up going back to their countries and become competitors against South Korean businesses. Much more importantly, since these guest workers cannot bring their families to Korea and live together, these immigrant workers will not spend any of their earned money on the Korean economy. Instead, they send their incomes out of Korea to enrich their home nations. So the result is that South Korea temporarily solves some of the production problems due to labour shortages, however does not solve the most fundamental problem which is lack of domestic demand in the economy. Instead, the foreign guest workers remain foreign due to the fact that they don't feel the need to integrate into Korean society when their stay is only temporary. This leads to cultural conflicts and ill feelings between they and the Korean natives.

So what's the answer that's remaining?

Open door immigration. So how many people do South Korea need? Well, if South Korea imports 100,000 new permanent residents per year, that's a nice start, however... it may delay a little, however is not nearly enough to stop the economic decline. So what if they double the number to 200,000? This number results in better economic conditions for South Korea down the road, than compared to importing only 100,000 people. However the economic decline still continues, although the decline is not as steep. So then what about importing 300,000 people per year? Then finally the predicted economic figures show the Korean economy starts to overheat a little, since that's a tad too many people all at once.

In summary, this is the suggestion by the economists.

Start slow by allowing 100,000 new permanent residents per year in the first couple of years. Then within few years, double the quota to 200,000 permanent residents per year. Then wait few more years, and increase the maximum to 300,000 per year to reach South Korea's optimum number to reach stable population and demographic levels to ensure continued healthy economic growth rate for the country. However doing absolutely nothing and continuing on the current policies will inevitably lead to economic and demographic collapse of South Korea.

Will the people of South Korea be accepting of these immigration changes? Many Koreans are against open door immigration. They ask why they have to take in more people when there are no jobs available. They say that Koreans will end up competing with new immigrants for the few jobs that are available. However, they do not take into consideration the spark to the domestic demands that these newcomers will bring with them. They will need housing, they will need to eat, they will need clothes, shoes, shampoos, books, games, TV's.. every consumer goods you can imagine. Without demand, number of Korean businesses will also shrink, and with shrinking companies, number of good jobs will also shrink. The refusal to allow immigration (outside of marriage immigrants) is costing this country huge. Yet the Korean governments (doesn't matter if rightwing or leftwing) are afraid to touch this issue due to the wrath of the voters. Just look at the way how the loud minority in the labour reacted when the new labour reform plans were announced. There were massive demonstrations and riots with cries of revolution. And the most opposition against immigration comes from South Korea's powerful militant labour unions who are dead set against infusion of new workers that could compete against them. They and their leftist supporters have been the most hardline when it comes to opposing immigration. And they will once again rise up in the streets if any Korean government dares to liberalize immigration. However I get the feeling this issue and conflict will surface in the future, next after they've resolved the labour reform issues. It's coming.

https://www.reddit.com/r/korea/comments/3w6au9/korean_economists_present_dire_consequences_for/

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