I especially liked Pew because I truly trust their work.

and have indepth analysis of their numbers.

I was thinking back to 1976. In that time they have picked the wrong pop vote winner twice and hugely overestimated the eventually winner's margin several times.

Every other poll had Reagan up comfortably. Of course, now the right quotes that one Gallup poll as proof Reagan was behind the ENTIRE race and then surged past Carter at the very end to a huge win.

It didn't happen like that. Carter led in early '80, but lost his lead in May and Reagan then opened up a 30 point or so lead of his own prior to, and a bit after, the Republican Convention. Carter climbed back into the race, albeit still trailing, after the DNC in August that year, and the race remained a 5-7 point race for much of the remainder of the campaign until the debate ... when Reagan, yes, did get a bump (but he was never behind in most polls ... just that one Gallup).

All these people who say 2012 is like 1980 lack historical analysis.

That one poll keeps their hope alive that Romney can do something no challenger has been able to do - overtake an incumbent late in the game. Every other incumbent who lost was behind far before September & October ...

H.W. Bush was behind after mid-July and never took the lead again.

Carter, as I've mentioned, was behind from May until the election.

Ford was down for pretty much all of '76, made a huge comeback and lost narrowly.

It's not easy defeating an incumbent. Defeating an incumbent when you're down in the polls in September is almost unheard of. As much as people say Obama will make history if he wins because of the unemployment rate, Romney is now at the point where he'll make history with a win because he's just not positioned like the last three challengers who defeated an incumbent.

Based on anecdotal and factual information. Things felt all wrong...

I simply plan to be there on the first day of early voting to vote for Obama. I plan to continue my efforts to get as many unregistered voters registered up until the deadline, and I plan to do whatever I can to get those registered voters to the polls.

We must NOT take anything for granted. The hard work can stop (for a minute or two) the day AFTER the election. But not until then.

I notice Obama leads quite impressively in important swing states. But i do notice Rass and Gallup are in the MOE. So i am confused what these national polls mean when i figure the state polls are the only important ones. What am i missing?

Last edited Thu Sep 20, 2012, 11:03 PM - Edit history (1)

We needed that reminder.

Wasn't Gallup the one that attended the fundraiser in Ohio, and pledged his support to help Bush get elected in 2004?

OBAMA BY A LANDSLIDE!!!

I am not concerned in the least. For decades pollsters have made their living by force-feeding us photo-finish horse races for their own profitable prime time entertainment.

Trepidation is the pollster's natural occupation. I doubt the crap out of them. Obama wins.