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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNate Silver has never claimed that Sanders would beat Trump.
That is all.
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Nate Silver has never claimed that Sanders would beat Trump. (Original Post)
sufrommich
Jan 2016
OP
immoderate
(20,885 posts)1. Nevertheless...
--imm
Electric Monk
(13,869 posts)3. Here's what Nate Silver actually said
"Weve got an unpopular set of presidential candidates this year Bernie Sanders is the only candidate in either party with a net-positive favorability rating but Trump is the most unpopular of all. His favorability rating is 33 percent, as compared with an unfavorable rating of 58 percent, for a net rating of -25 percentage points. By comparison Hillary Clinton, whose favorability ratings are notoriously poor, has a 42 percent favorable rating against a 50 percent unfavorable rating, for a net of -8 points. Those are bad numbers, but nowhere near as bad as Trumps.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/
That reads to me like he thinks Sanders beats Trump easily in the General, when you parse it down.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511030814
tk2kewl
(18,133 posts)6. for him to say so outright would probably be bad for business
jkbRN
(850 posts)4. I guess he doesn't want to read that part in all of the polls
Where sanders outperforms trump by a much wider margin than HRC
mythology
(9,527 posts)11. Actually they disregard them in general
MineralMan
(146,331 posts)5. That's true.
But someone, somewhere apparently said that he said that. That's good enough, I suppose. It is now a meme. Memes are the currency of politics, it seems.
99Forever
(14,524 posts)7. Why should I give a shit?
Cuz I don't. That is all.
progressoid
(49,999 posts)8. OK?
Gothmog
(145,563 posts)9. You are correct
Turn CO Blue
(4,221 posts)10. Hey, I try to stay neutral, but your implied premise is unfounded.
Let's ignore the identity of D nominee entirely.
If Trump becomes the R nominee, in the general Trump will HAVE to get 48 to 52% of the Latino/Hispanic vote next November to win a presidency. Period.
THERE IS NO OTHER PATH TO THE WHITE HOUSE FOR TRUMP. 48% OF LATINOS/HISPANICS.
Trump has 82 to 90% strong UNFAVORABLES with Latinos/Hispanics of both genders.
Immigration and path to citizenship is the number one issue for Latinos/Hispanics. By a wide margin. Period.
Trump as the R nominee guarantees Dems the White House. We already know this. The Repubs know this, and have conceded the WH.
The Senate races are more important by a factor of a million, but do you see any DUers posting about key Senate races?
_____________________________________________
I like Hillary. I like Bernie. I would crawl ten miles over broken glass to vote against Trump or Cruz.
John Poet
(2,510 posts)12. So when did Nate take his last poll... ?
Some people take polls, and other people just talk about them.