2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumAnother Iowa Poll, another Clinton lead-Clinton 52% -Sanders 43%
SURGE 10 DAYS BEFORE THE CAUCUS. CRUZ AND SANDERS FALTERING AT
FINISH.
In a new, statewide Iowa poll, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have surged to 9 and 10
point leads in Iowa with just 10 days before the first in the nation voting begins. Clinton
receives 52% of the vote and Sanders at 43%. Trump leads his Republican rivals with
33%, followed by Ted Cruz at 23%, Marco Rubio (14%), and Ben Carson (9%) round out
the top four with the rest of field under 6%; Rick Santorum -- who won the 2012 Iowa
GOP Caucus with 25% of the vote -- has less than 1% of Iowans this time around, and
Mike Huckabee who won the 2008 Iowa Caucus is at 2%.
The survey began January 18, the day after the latest Democrat debate, and concluded
January 20, the day following Sarah Palins endorsement of Donald Trump.
At this point, while both Trump and Clinton have significant leads in their own primaries
the electorate appears volatile, and it is still up in the air as to who will win said Henry
Krause, a Senior Political Communication major at Emerson College, who helped
oversee the project. The data fluctuated on the three days of polling on both sides with
Clinton holding a 14 point lead on Monday, dropping to 9 points on Tuesday and was at
1 point, 48% to 47% on Wednesday. Trump also say variability over the three days
watching a 13 point lead on Monday drop to 4 points on Tuesday and rebounding on
Wednesday to 12 points 35% to 22% over Cruz.
http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_542e7f5df4e14162851de1c77b0df5f4.pdf
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)But...but...the bernie revolution....???
Must be a conspiracy
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)Do you think he peaked too soon ?
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)We will know in 10 days time DSB.
mhatrw
(10,786 posts)The data fluctuated on the three days of polling on both sides with Clinton holding a 14 point lead on Monday, dropping to 9 points on Tuesday and was at 1 point, 48% to 47% on Wednesday.
MineralMan
(146,325 posts)It's a power surge!
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)MineralMan
(146,325 posts)riversedge
(70,285 posts)Bjorn Against
(12,041 posts)"The data fluctuated on the three days of polling on both sides with Clinton holding a 14 point lead on Monday, dropping to 9 points on Tuesday and was at 1 point, 48% to 47% on Wednesday."
If that trend continues Hillary is in big trouble.
HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)Don't ruin their fun.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)Don't tell anybody those subsamples consist of 86 people and are virtually meaningless, by themselves
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)Which is why they are taken over multiple days. Try again.
riversedge
(70,285 posts)book_worm
(15,951 posts)Clinton leading by 14 on Monday and by only 1 on Wednesday.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)Thank you in advance.
Respectfully,
DSB
NorthCarolina
(11,197 posts)Hope you enjoy it!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511042110
Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)
Name removed Message auto-removed
William769
(55,147 posts)MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)I'm trying to decide if they want a Republican in the WH, or just a primary horse race. Either way, the CNN/ORC, demonstrably flawed, "poll" keeps getting trotted out, despite results from other reputable polls, like this one, showing Hillary ahead.