Clinton-Sanders Battle in Iowa May Be Decided by O’Malley Supporters.

'Martin O’Malley has rarely broken above 5 percent in Iowa polls, but on caucus night he could be the most popular person in the room — or, rather, his supporters will be, as activists for Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders desperately try to scoop them up.

The arcane rules of Iowa’s Democratic caucuses mean that most O’Malley supporters will be ruled “nonviable” if he does not get 15 percent support at a caucus; his supporters will then be up for grabs by another candidate. With polls showing the race between Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Sanders narrowing to a near tie, O’Malley supporters, along with attendees who enter their neighborhood caucuses undecided, could swing the results.

“The most coveted person in Iowa politics is an undecided person or the O’Malley nonviable folks,” said Kevin Geiken, a Democratic strategist in the state.

Both the Clinton and Sanders campaigns, which have spoken to nearly every potential caucusgoer in the state by now, know who is supporting Mr. O’Malley and, more important, who their second choice is. After an initial count at each of the 1,681 caucus sites, supporters of Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Sanders will get a chance, in an often emotional and chaotic scene, to woo O’Malley supporters if they make up less than 15 percent of the people in the room.

“They could certainly have an impact if this race is as close as the polls suggest,” said Grant Woodard, who was an Iowa operative for Mrs. Clinton in 2008. “My experience is that it is mostly a personal-relationship situation in that people will go to whichever corner they see the most faces they recognize.”

It is unclear whether Mrs. Clinton or Mr. Sanders has more backing among O’Malley supporters. In interviews, backers of Mr. O’Malley appeared divided, with perhaps a small edge to Mrs. Clinton.

“I have a feeling and assumption it’s Hillary,” said Taylor Van De Krol, the Democratic chairman of Jasper County, who has endorsed Mr. O’Malley.

Unlike the Republican caucuses, where all votes are counted equally, the Democrats’ Iowa caucuses are more complex. Caucusgoers gather in groups for each candidate during a 30-minute alignment period. If a group does not reach the 15 percent threshold, its members must realign with a different candidate or sit out the final head count.

Mr. Geiken, a consultant who trained organizers for both Mr. Sanders and Mr. O’Malley on what to expect on caucus night, showed some a video of how a savvy precinct captain for Barack Obama in 2008 coaxed nonviable supporters of Joseph R. Biden Jr. into the Obama corner.

The Sanders campaign plans to brief its precinct leaders on ways to appeal to an O’Malley supporter, said Pete D’Alessandro, the Iowa campaign coordinator. For example, if an O’Malley supporter is wearing a pro-environment button, a Sanders supporter would describe the Vermont senator’s opposition to a proposed oil pipeline across Iowa, which Mrs. Clinton has not taken a stand on.

Mr. D’Alessandro floated another argument that may be the most potent of all: Supporting Mr. Sanders would lengthen the nominating contest, giving Mr. O’Malley more time in the race to push his causes. “If I was a Martin O’Malley supporter,” he said, “by coming over to the Bernie Sanders group, that elongates the process.”

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In the end, the arguments that may be the most persuasive with O’Malley supporters are the ones they cited in interviews for rejecting one of the two alternatives. Democrats who said Mr. Sanders was their second choice pointed to Mrs. Clinton’s “baggage” of past scandals.' >>>

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/23/us/politics/clinton-sanders-omalley-iowa-caucuses.html?