2016 Postmortem

Alfresco

(1,698 posts) Fri Jan 22, 2016, 06:05 PM Jan 2016

Today's Nate's 538 2016 Primary Polls-Only Forecast: Iowa-Hillary-72%, Bernie-28%

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-democratic/#polls-only

16 replies

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Today's Nate's 538 2016 Primary Polls-Only Forecast: Iowa-Hillary-72%, Bernie-28% (Original Post) Alfresco Jan 2016 OP

WOW! workinclasszero Jan 2016 #1

Remember, this is CHANCE of winning, not votes. randys1 Jan 2016 #2

72% chance workinclasszero Jan 2016 #3

I thought, and could be wrong, it was in the 80's last week randys1 Jan 2016 #4

It was 65-35 Monday. Alfresco Jan 2016 #7

Wasnt it over 80 a week ago? randys1 Jan 2016 #8

He has two models dsc Jan 2016 #16

Wow is right! 85% in the polls-plus model! Bleacher Creature Jan 2016 #5

That's it exactly Stuckinthebush Jan 2016 #6

Actually Bill Clinton lost both Iowa and NH in 1992 and went on to Thinkingabout Jan 2016 #9

Awesome! k&r DesertRat Jan 2016 #10

K&R. Go Hillary! lunamagica Jan 2016 #11

K&R Lovin it! MeNMyVolt Jan 2016 #12

Bump this mutha. :-) Alfresco Jan 2016 #13

Your wish is my command! MoonRiver Jan 2016 #14

:-) Alfresco Jan 2016 #15

workinclasszero

(28,270 posts)

1. WOW!

Reply to Alfresco (Original post)

Fri Jan 22, 2016, 06:08 PM

Jan 2016

Boom!

randys1

(16,286 posts)

2. Remember, this is CHANCE of winning, not votes.

Reply to Alfresco (Original post)

Fri Jan 22, 2016, 06:08 PM

Jan 2016

Carry on - I realize most here know that but just in case.

And I believe her CHANCE was higher a week ago.

Here is NH

guess what

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/new-hampshire-democratic/#polls-only

What I would LOVE would be all of us supporting who we want and not fighting, not EVER promoting rightwing garbage about either candidate.

Hey, I can dream

workinclasszero

(28,270 posts)

3. 72% chance

Reply to randys1 (Reply #2)

Fri Jan 22, 2016, 06:10 PM

Jan 2016

and from Nate also.

randys1

(16,286 posts)

4. I thought, and could be wrong, it was in the 80's last week

Reply to workinclasszero (Reply #3)

Fri Jan 22, 2016, 06:11 PM

Jan 2016

Alfresco

(1,698 posts)

7. It was 65-35 Monday.

Reply to randys1 (Reply #4)

Fri Jan 22, 2016, 06:25 PM

Jan 2016

randys1

(16,286 posts)

8. Wasnt it over 80 a week ago?

Reply to Alfresco (Reply #7)

Fri Jan 22, 2016, 06:29 PM

Jan 2016

Doesnt matter, but I am pretty sure it was.

dsc

(52,170 posts)

16. He has two models

Reply to randys1 (Reply #8)

Sat Jan 23, 2016, 11:34 AM

Jan 2016

the one that was over 80 was polls plus which counts endorsements and other things along with polls.

Bleacher Creature

(11,258 posts)

5. Wow is right! 85% in the polls-plus model!

Reply to Alfresco (Original post)

Fri Jan 22, 2016, 06:12 PM

Jan 2016

Because of the way the rest of February and March plays out, IA and/or NH were always just bonuses for HRC. If she loses both, it's going to create a lot of buzz and hurt her momentum, but the numbers would still be in her favor. For Bernie, he needs to win BOTH. If he loses IA, it's only a matter of time until it's over.

Stuckinthebush

(10,847 posts)

6. That's it exactly

Reply to Bleacher Creature (Reply #5)

Fri Jan 22, 2016, 06:21 PM

Jan 2016

A loss for Clinton in IA and NH is a set back but not devastating since her super Tuesday lead with an additional plus with super delegates.

Sanders, however, is simply screwed. He can win both IA and NH and will still go down.

The arithmetic is very favorable to Clinton.