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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumSanders cuts Clinton's Lead by 17% in South Carolina: Clinton 47%, Bernie 28%
https://www.docdroid.net/vOFfb2x/scnd-poll-11516-1.pdf.htmlThe South Carolina New Democrats release the results of their survey of Democrats on the eve of the
Presidential Debate which found Clinton leading Sanders 47% to 28% with OMalley at 2% and 22%
undecided.
This is significant lead for Clinton but Sanders is closing fast, said Phil Noble, President of the SC New
Democrats, If Shakespeare is right and whats past is prologue then Im not sure Id sleep too well if I
were Clinton.
The last South Carolina poll published by Real Clear Politics was a Dec 17, 2015, CBS/YouGov poll that
found Clinton with a 36 point lead with Clinton at 67%, Sanders at 31%, and OMalley at 2%.
At this point about 45 days prior to the 2008 Democratic Presidential Primary, Clinton was 8% ahead of
Obama in a CCN poll and the actual vote was 55-26%, a 29 point Obama margin.
Among key subgroups, the results of the poll were as follows:
-African Americans voters are expected to make up 60% of the primary electorate: Clinton 54%,
Sanders 18% and OMalley 2%.
- White voters are expected to make up 40% of the primary electorate: Clinton 39%, Sanders 44%,
and OMalley 2%
- Women voters are expected to make up 60% of the primary electorate: Clinton 48%, Sanders
32% and OMalley 2%
- Men voters are expected to make up 40% of the primary electorate: Clinton 37%, Sanders 44%
and OMalley 3%.
Not surprisingly, Democrats least favorite Republican presidential candidate was Donald Trump at 58%
and their second least favorite was Ted Cruz at 22%.
SC Democrats are much more optimistic about the direction of the country (59% right track, 25% wrong
track) than they are about the direction of South Carolina (21% right track, 55% wrong track).
We believe this poll gives a good snapshot of the state of the race in South Carolina today, said John
Thevos, Research Director of SC New Democrats who managed the survey. Most of all, it shows that
things can change very quickly in the Palmetto State and the primary on February 27 could well surprise
lots of folks. Stayed tuned, said Thevos
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Sanders cuts Clinton's Lead by 17% in South Carolina: Clinton 47%, Bernie 28% (Original Post)
shiriu
Jan 2016
OP
John Poet
(2,510 posts)1. That's a major improvement.
Nice to see some movement there, and the statistical dead heat in Nevada---
the times they are a-changin' !
Gore1FL
(21,224 posts)2. While I doubt that SC or NV are winnable for Sanders, he doesn't necessarily have to win in either.
He just has to not lose badly. Numbers like this could tighten more on the heels of successful IA and NH contests.