2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumCBS Poll-Bernie Edges Clinton In Iowa
It's real. It's damn real!
Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)Polls mean nothing...remember? Within the margin of error, means jack shit,remember?
pinebox
(5,761 posts)Check it!
How does a candidate who has 99% name recognition lose a massive lead in IA to a candidate who had a 3% name recognition? The same way she lost to Obama. Bernie is going to take Iowa & when it happens Hillary supporters are going to freak out. Mark my words.
Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)You ask inane questions as if you just landed on a gotcha moment.
I never expected Hillary to get 99% or 100% of any vote simply because of name recognition. How dumb is that premis?
cali
(114,904 posts)What could be more inane than this? Thinkin in the Bernie pine box is your specialty.
Hillary may get the nomination, but she is not likable enough to assure a win in November, even against a pig like tRump.
God I wish this was twitter lol You know EXACTLY what I would say right now if it was lol
Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)You'll be needing it.
cali
(114,904 posts)corrupt Hillary will be the nominee. And that she'll lose in November. That's when we'll all need Kleenex.
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)That would destroy us in November, up and down the ticket.
pinebox
(5,761 posts)you've lost the argument.
I posed an actual question to you. You're unable to answer it. That's fine. I get it. You're candidate is underwater.
You miss the point. Hillary has a 99% name recognition. People know who she is. Bernie was at 3% name recognition. Much like Obama, people didn't know who he was. he's a fresh face in an otherwise stale political environment where people are sick and tired of politicians.
Hillary is a - 27. Bernie is a +26.
Enthusiasm gaps matter.
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)pinebox
(5,761 posts)libdem4life
(13,877 posts)pinebox
(5,761 posts)libdem4life
(13,877 posts)Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)So how come polls matter to Bernie supporters today?
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)in their candidate's favor. Why? Because that's all we have...inelegant as it seems. That's the way American politics roll.
MrMickeysMom
(20,453 posts)They've always come with a margin of error. They've always been taken for the moment, and they never stopped supporters like me from engaging in our campaign. We continue to do what we do, because there are more and more who are understanding who Bernie Sanders is.
His message is consistent. He is not rude in delivering that message, nor his he threatened. Discussing the issues and what it takes removes any threat from everyone because we are at stake in the the center of all those issues.
pinebox
(5,761 posts)I didn't. Nice try though. Project much? Should I bring some slides with my Kodak?
Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)I find the hypocrisy of employing data, suddenly getting kudos and recs for any polling data, that has widely been rejected for months, truly fascinating.
pinebox
(5,761 posts)You mean like those online polls all the Sanders supporters rejected? Oh wait....
Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)pinebox
(5,761 posts)cali
(114,904 posts)I will also repeat something I said years ago here: Her support is a mile wide, but not so deep.
FreakinDJ
(17,644 posts)All your Wall St $Money and 1%er friends and still that little insignificant Jew from Connecticut is edging you out
Oh My ...
He's from New York and Vermont. Not Connecticut.
thereismore
(13,326 posts)I am for Bernie but please enough of shit polls.
pinebox
(5,761 posts)"Check it!
How does a candidate who has 99% name recognition lose a massive lead in IA to a candidate who had a 3% name recognition? The same way she lost to Obama. Bernie is going to take Iowa & when it happens Hillary supporters are going to freak out. Mark my words"
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)Anyone who has been here for longer than a few hours knows the poll flip-flops. Both sides champion their "good news".
Glad you're for Bernie...every reaction is under a microscope, especially here. We can cheer the ones we like and ignore the ones we don't.
I choose to cheer...and hope.
thereismore
(13,326 posts)Recursion
(56,582 posts)It's one of the weirder methodologies I've seen, but that in itself doesn't make it bad.
thereismore
(13,326 posts)Go Bernie go! The SC shifts are great.
Robbins
(5,066 posts)Men-Bernie 51%(+4) Clinton 43%(-1)
women-Clinton 47%(-7) Bernie 44%
18-29-Bernie Bernie 74%(+3) Clinton 14%(-14)
30-44 -Clinton 50%(-4) Bernie 47%(+1)
45-64-Bernie 48%(+4) Clinton 46%(-4)
65+ Clinton 61%(+2) Bernie 28(-5)
Very Liberal-Bernie 64%(+9) Clinton 33%(-11)
Liberal-Bernie 47%(+1) Clinton 47%(-3)
Moderate-Clinton 55%(-5) Bernie 36%(+1)
Self identified dems-Clinton 52%(-1) Bernie 40%(-2)
Self indenified independents-Bernie 67%(+13) Clinton 24%(-16)
and this as well as NH and SC polls polled those who had been to caucus or voted in primary before.so it poential is leaving out some of bernie's supporters.
thereismore
(13,326 posts)JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)B Calm
(28,762 posts)Le Taz Hot
(22,271 posts)The only "older women" I know who are voting for Shills are Yellow Dog Democrats who would vote for Trump if Das Party told them to. The rest of us have retained our minds and regularly engage in independent thought and are going' for Bernie.
in_cog_ni_to
(41,600 posts)to win this. Bernie is going to be our nominee.
PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE
in_cog_ni_to
(41,600 posts)Now we know why the shitstorm has started. Internal polling must be in the toilet.
Be prepared for a massive onslaught of attacks on Bernie this week.
Go Bernie!
We're going to win! 99% > 1% ....
PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE
demwing
(16,916 posts)Last edited Sun Jan 24, 2016, 02:20 PM - Edit history (1)
I want Bernie to win, and believe he will, but this poll would get laughed at if it supported Clinton, and each of us knows it.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)If I'm reading this right it basically fell out of their screening process for a focus group series. So, over 1700 people, which would normally be great, but they don't come from a probability sample.
B Calm
(28,762 posts)he wins the first two states I don't see anything stopping him!
senz
(11,945 posts)Strong polls, weak polls, they all point that way.
Thanks for a good OP, pinebox!