2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumRace Ratings Chart for 2012 House Elections
Examples:
Colo.6-Coffman (R) is listed as Tossup
Ill.-8-Walsh (R) is listed as Likely Democratic
Fla.-18-West (R) is listed as Leans Republican
http://www.rollcall.com/politics/race-ratings-chart-2012-house-elections.html
dsc
(52,166 posts)which is hardly a sure thing, that would give us 18 seats. But after that it is tough sledding. We would have to also win all of the Democratic leaners and over half of the GOP leaners. That is a tall order.
Tx4obama
(36,974 posts)Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball - House Chart: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2012-house/
Election Projection HOUSE Map: http://www.electionprojection.com/2012elections/house12.php
Note: the newest changes are listed on the right side of the page.
Real Clear Politics HOUSE Map: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/house/2012_elections_house_map.html
Response to TroyD (Original post)
littlemissmartypants This message was self-deleted by its author.
ProgressiveEconomist
(5,818 posts)According to the Times, 158 seats are solidly Democratic and 26 lean Democratic. If Democrats should win all 184 of those solid and leaning Democratic seats, they'd still need at least 34 more to reach 218 for a majority.
Those 34 additional seats would have to come from the 22 tossup districts and 33 Republican-leaning districts listed below. The Times has a sentence or two detailing the situation in each of the 81 seats in play. Losing any of the 26 districts that lean Democratic would add to the minimum 34 needed from tossup and lean-R districts to put Nancy Pelosi back in the Speaker's chair.
81 SEATS IN PLAY
26 Leaning Dem.
22 Tossup
33 Leaning Rep.
From http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/ratings/house
"A New York Times analysis of the most competitive House races in the 2012 election.
At least 218 seats needed for majority
191 Current Democratic seats
241 Current Republican Seats
158 Solid Democratic
196 Solid Republican
81 SEATS IN PLAY
26 Leaning Dem.
22 Tossup
33 Leaning Rep.
22 seats Tossup
Arizona 1st
Arizona 2nd
California 7th
California 41st
California 52nd
Connecticut 5th
Florida 26th
Georgia 12th
Illinois 12th
Iowa 3rd
Michigan 1st
Minnesota 8th
New Hampshire 2nd
New York 1st
New York 11th
New York 24th
New York 27th
North Carolina 8th
Ohio 6th
Ohio 16th
Pennsylvania 12th
Utah 4th
33 seats Leaning Republican
California 10th
California 21st
California 36th
Colorado 3rd
Colorado 6th
Florida 2nd
Florida 10th
Florida 16th
Florida 18th
Illinois 13th
Indiana 8th
Iowa 4th
Michigan 3rd
Michigan 7th
Michigan 11th
Minnesota 2nd
Nevada 3rd
New Hampshire 1st
New Jersey 3rd
New York 18th
New York 19th
New York 22nd
New York 23rd
North Carolina 11th
North Carolina 13th
Ohio 7th
Pennsylvania 6th
Pennsylvania 7th
Pennsylvania 8th
Texas 23rd
Virginia 2nd
Wisconsin 7th
Wisconsin 8th
Race profiles by JENNIFER STEINHAUER, JONATHAN WEISMAN, EMMARIE HUETTEMAN, ASHLEY SOUTHALL, SARAH WHEATON, IAN LOVETT, MONICA DAVEY, KIRK JOHNSON, JADA SMITH, RAYMOND HERNANDEZ, JENNIFER MEDINA, STEVEN YACCINO, ROBBIE BROWN and MALIA WOLLAN"