2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHmmm...on REAL CLEAR POLITICS' own map, OHIO is no longer in play...Obama/Biden has 265 EV
He can lose Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, New Hampshire and Iowa and still win.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html
groundloop
(11,522 posts)yet President Obama has been ahead in every single poll, including the R leaning polls, for the past 2, 3, or 4 weeks.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)That's a big lead in some states. Seems to me it should be something like 3 or 4%.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)with the new Q/NYT/CBS poll.
TexasCPA
(527 posts)but the media tends to use them as a source.
They use 5% as the cutoff of toss up to leans.
Stuart G
(38,445 posts)Toss Up (82) according to REal Clear Politics.....Obama..265
Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
Iowa (6)
Nevada (6)
North Carolina (15)
Virginia (13)
.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)That is indeed a huge development on THAT site. They've had OHIO as a Toss-Up all year. Other sites like Huff Po and some of the others have often had Ohio in Obama's column, but never RCP.
LiberalFighter
(51,084 posts)Let's play some mind games with the opposition on this.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Just posted by Zach Wolf of ABC:
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Elections/fullpage?id=17012629
JaneQPublic
(7,113 posts)...as opposed to RCP's new total of 265 for Obama.
ABC still has WI as tossup, which is totally unreasonable, in light of recent polling (by pollsters other than ABC's), and they have NC as leaning GOP rather than a tossup.
muriel_volestrangler
(101,361 posts)making it 347-191.
JRLeft
(7,010 posts)dmallind
(10,437 posts)Obviously it depends on closeness but assuming, as we probably can, that all 3 are within a few points either way, which is likely to deliver results first?
While mathematically Romney is still in the race losing any of them, practically speaking my hardly out-on-a-limb take is that once I see any of them called blue it's time to go home smiling (I'll be at the bar when results start coming in).
JaneQPublic
(7,113 posts)His leads in the three states you mentioned, according to RCP averages, are as follows:
VA = 4.5
FL = 3.1
NC = 1.0
So, if 5.0 points is the lead RCP requires to move a state out of toss-up status, then VA is getting pretty darn close.
brooklynite
(94,727 posts)...it stretches into Central Time Zone, and after the 2000 fiasco (the calling, not the counting) they'll hold off to be safe.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)I think Obama will win VA handily. He'll have a tougher time in NC and FL with the voter suppression. His leads are also not as healthy in those states.
Adenoid_Hynkel
(14,093 posts)LakeErieLiberal
(37 posts)But we must stay committed and use this polling evidence that people still considering Romney are not mainstream and get even more voters into the Obama camp. People need to know that the Democratic Party's policies put a floor under the recession that the Republican's caused and that they're the one's who will keep making things better as we go forward.
Nobody but the 1% trying to buy this election has any business voting for this republican party so we've got to keep fighting even though things look good.
This brand of Republicans will do anything to try to obtain power...even if it means intentionally attempting to tank the economy as we have seen.
yellowcanine
(35,701 posts)lights out for Mitt on election night. At that point NC and Florida would be icing on the cake.