2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumObama Mulls Competing for Arizona
Obama Mulls Competing for Arizona
President Obama's campaign is considering competing in Arizona, the AP reports.
"Obama looked at competing in Arizona in 2008, but decided against it because of the support there for home state Sen. John McCain, the GOP nominee. Obama still won 45 percent of the vote."
"This year, Obama's team talked early on about running in Arizona, which offers 11 electoral votes, but it never did. Now, with an internal Democratic poll showing Obama narrowly leading Romney, Obama's team might make a play for the state that has seen a 160,000 increase in voter registrations by Democratic-leaning Hispanics over the past four years."
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/09/26/obama_mulls_competing_for_arizona.html
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Can win fairly comfortably without it.
SoonerPride
(12,286 posts)Then hit them all over the place. They are supposedly strapped for cash. Spreading them thinner by making them defend more turf makes their ad buys in the usual toss ups less potent.
Xipe Totec
(43,890 posts)And about playing as a team, supporting other Democratic candidates.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)the Rethugs will commit.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)But we don't have infinite resources to spend everywhere.
Romney's group seems to be narrowing their focus to a handful of battleground states - I say, work the math and make sure to win the ones we are already winning - which should be enough to do the job.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)yellowcanine
(35,701 posts)Arizona is personal for Hispanics and a strong Obama there, even if it ends up falling short, could energize Hispanics in places like New Mexico, Nevada, North Carolina and Florida and help put Obama over the top in those states.
Chipper Chat
(9,687 posts)downticket candidates. We need that Senate majority maintained. And TURN THE HOUSE! Relegate Cantor and Boehner to the basement.
K Gardner
(14,933 posts)still_one
(92,394 posts)grantcart
(53,061 posts)BeyondGeography
(39,379 posts)No sense hitting the same 5-6 states over and over again for a whole month when you've already built double-digit leads in some of them. At the very least, it'll help drive turnout down ballot.
robertpaulsen
(8,632 posts)Going there would not only shore up his own support, but also help Richard Carmona, who is rapidly closing the gap against Jeff Flake. A direct endorsement would be encouraging and might increase our Senate majority. Might also be a good idea to pay a visit to Gabby Giffords, thank her for all her support.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)Texas Lawyer
(350 posts)The most recent poll in Arizona is from earlier this month by Purple Strategies (which has a notorious pro-R house effect) and even this R-biased poll gave Romney only a 3% lead over the President (which is within the 4% MoE). Despite the fact that it was his home-state, McCain carried Arizona by only 8.5% (and Romney does not enjoy the home field advantage that boosted McCain).
There is no recent public presidential polling in Indiana, but the President carried Indiana in 2008.
A PPP poll earlier this month gave Romney only a 5% lead, and the Romney campaign has fallen considerably since then.
Second, there are real down-ballot prizes to be won in Arizona, Indiana and Montana.
Earlier this month, a PPP poll put Democratic Senate candidate Richard Carmona just one point behind flaky Republican Jeff Flake. This is a potential Democratic pick up in the Senate. In addition, AZCD-1 and AZCD-9 are races worth watching, and we could use some coattails in the races for these two open seats.
When Tea Party nutjob Richard Mourdock beat traditional Republican Senator Richard Lugar, this race became competitive and Democrat Joe Donnelly is a terrific candidate. There hasn't been much polling, but the little polling there has been puts this race tied or within the margin of error. This is another potential Democratic pick up in the Senate. INCD-2 and INCD-8 are two close races where we are slight underdogs who could use some down-ballot magic.
Montana Senator Jon Tester is in a closely-fought contest to hold this seat against a challenge from Denny Rehberg. This is an important Senate seat for us to hold. Montana's statewide Congressional seat (currently held by Rehberg) is another competitive race where we could use a boost.
Could the President win Arizona, Indiana and Montana? Definitely!
But don't forget that there are also three competitive Senate races and five competitive House races in those states, and we need those votes to pass the President's agenda after he wins.
smorkingapple
(827 posts)Many NE'rs move out there too which will also help and it's surrounded by blue states mostly. Very good chance to lock down southwest for a long time.
fujiyama
(15,185 posts)I mean, what's the point, whether you lose it by 5 or lose it by 7, I still think it would be a long shot.
But, if the Senate candidate there feels Obama's presence would be useful in winning the seat, then it may be worth a trip!
Personally I'd say put the money toward fighting voter suppression in FL, OH, NV, IA, CO, WI, VA, NH, and even NC. While I don't see him losing those states (except for NC maybe), there's plenty of chicanery the GOP can and likely will pull. While I see Obama is pulling away in most of those states, it's obvious that NC is still very close - but still likelier I think to go blue this cycle than AZ.
center rising
(971 posts)TroyD
(4,551 posts)Bill Clinton is the only Democrat to win Arizona since Harry Truman in 1948.
Grown2Hate
(2,013 posts)couldn't HURT. FIRED UP!