2016 Postmortem

Cali_Democrat

(30,439 posts) Fri Jan 29, 2016, 06:34 PM Jan 2016

Politifact: Bernie's claim that he polls better against GOP candidates than Hillary Clinton is false

Bernie Sanders says he polls better against GOP candidates than Hillary Clinton
By C. Eugene Emery Jr.

In the runup to the Iowa caucus, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has repeatedly said he has a better chance of beating the eventual Republican nominee in the Nov. 8 general election than fellow Democratic rival Hillary Clinton.

"Almost all of the polls that -- and polls are polls, they go up, they go down -- but almost all of the polls that have come out suggest that I am a much stronger candidate against the Republicans than is Hillary Clinton," he told voters during a Jan. 19 town hall meeting in Underwood, Iowa.

<...>

Our ruling

Sanders said, "Almost all of the polls that have come out suggest that I am a much stronger candidate against the Republicans than is Hillary Clinton."

The NBC News/Wall Street Journal national poll released before Sanders' statement supports his claim for Trump, but it has no data against Cruz or Rubio. Earlier polls say he doesn't outperform Clinton at all against Cruz, Rubio or Bush, and the narrow races combined with the margins of error make his contention even more dubious.

Beating Clinton in only two of eight hypothetical matchups is far from "almost all."

The statement is not accurate, so we rate it False.

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/jan/26/bernie-s/bernie-sanders-says-he-polls-better-against-gop-ca/

16 replies

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Highlight:

Politifact: Bernie's claim that he polls better against GOP candidates than Hillary Clinton is false (Original Post) Cali_Democrat Jan 2016 OP

" Beating Clinton in only two of eight hypothetical matchups is far from "almost all." " MADem Jan 2016 #1

Politifact has been wrong lately.. Health Wagon Jan 2016 #2

ha ha. riversedge Jan 2016 #14

Considering what kind of week it's been, and all that we've learned, I can't say I'm surprised. NurseJackie Jan 2016 #3

Yup. nt Cali_Democrat Jan 2016 #5

This was my finding on that two days ago Jarqui Jan 2016 #4

Thank You! bvar22 Jan 2016 #6

Thank you. H2O Man Jan 2016 #7

Politifact should be renamed to Politifalse. n/t ljm2002 Jan 2016 #8

We conclude because it is true that it is FALSE! mhatrw Jan 2016 #9

This is false. The polls clearly demonstrate CoffeeCat Jan 2016 #10

completely agree - and here's a link to polling report.com which gathers the polls together karynnj Jan 2016 #13

Pollingreport.com would say polifacts is wrong - look at their main page for the latest results karynnj Jan 2016 #11

Politicifact is wrong jfern Jan 2016 #12

this lie has been repeated so often that Sanders and fans believe it and live by it. riversedge Jan 2016 #15

It's not a lie. The polls clearly spell out those GE match-ups CoffeeCat Jan 2016 #16

MADem

(135,425 posts)

1. " Beating Clinton in only two of eight hypothetical matchups is far from "almost all." "

Reply to Cali_Democrat (Original post)

Fri Jan 29, 2016, 06:36 PM

Jan 2016

The devil, as always, is in the details!!!!!

Health Wagon

(99 posts)

2. Politifact has been wrong lately..

Reply to Cali_Democrat (Original post)

Fri Jan 29, 2016, 06:37 PM

Jan 2016

It is all of it - in a major blowout

riversedge

(70,307 posts)

14. ha ha.

Reply to Health Wagon (Reply #2)

Fri Jan 29, 2016, 08:26 PM

Jan 2016

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)

3. Considering what kind of week it's been, and all that we've learned, I can't say I'm surprised.

Reply to Cali_Democrat (Original post)

Fri Jan 29, 2016, 06:41 PM

Jan 2016

Cali_Democrat

(30,439 posts)

5. Yup. nt

Reply to NurseJackie (Reply #3)

Fri Jan 29, 2016, 06:51 PM

Jan 2016

Jarqui

(10,130 posts)

4. This was my finding on that two days ago

Reply to Cali_Democrat (Original post)

Fri Jan 29, 2016, 06:42 PM

Jan 2016

Last edited Fri Jan 29, 2016, 08:10 PM - Edit history (1)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1084489

Real Clear Poll of Polls (bold name is better)

National
Trump vs. Clinton +2.7
Trump vs. Sanders +5.3

Cruz vs. Clinton +1.3
Cruz vs. Sanders +3.3

Rubio +2.5 vs. Clinton
Rubio +1 vs. Sanders

New Hampshire
Trump vs. Clinton +7.7
Trump vs. Sanders +20.7

Cruz vs. Clinton +3.3
Cruz vs. Sanders +20.3

Rubio +4.2 vs. Clinton
Rubio vs. Sanders +13.7

Iowa (older polls)
Trump vs. Clinton +5.0
Trump vs. Sanders +8.0

Cruz +3.5 vs. Clinton
Cruz vs. Sanders +3.0

Rubio +6.6 vs. Clinton
Rubio +3.0 vs. Sanders

In those nine matchups, using poll of polls results, Sanders does better than Clinton against the GOP all nine times.

The top post is an unsubstantiated pipe dream desperately trying to hold her supporters. If Hillary is so much more electable, she should be clobbering Sanders in Iowa and New Hampshire and doing better than the GOP rivals. But she has been unable to do that in any of the above. It's no contest. Sanders is the more electable candidate.

I've also done it state by state. I have never done an analysis since the last quarter that had Hillary doing better against the GOP than Bernie.

bvar22

(39,909 posts)

6. Thank You!

Reply to Jarqui (Reply #4)

Fri Jan 29, 2016, 07:12 PM

Jan 2016

Well Done.

H2O Man

(73,622 posts)

7. Thank you.

Reply to Jarqui (Reply #4)

Fri Jan 29, 2016, 07:14 PM

Jan 2016

ljm2002

(10,751 posts)

8. Politifact should be renamed to Politifalse. n/t

Reply to Jarqui (Reply #4)

Fri Jan 29, 2016, 07:45 PM

Jan 2016

mhatrw

(10,786 posts)

9. We conclude because it is true that it is FALSE!

Reply to Cali_Democrat (Original post)

Fri Jan 29, 2016, 07:48 PM

Jan 2016

Last edited Fri Jan 29, 2016, 11:38 PM - Edit history (1)

Orwellifact

CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)

10. This is false. The polls clearly demonstrate

Reply to Cali_Democrat (Original post)

Fri Jan 29, 2016, 07:58 PM

Jan 2016

that Bernie beats Trump, Rubio and Cruz--and he beats them by bigger margins that Clinton.

That is fact.

This is just Clinton attempting to punch a hole in the fact that Bernie is the stronger candidate than Clinton. She's no longer inevitable and the facts say so. Those polls weren't wrong.

People have woken up and they like Sanders--and he is a stronger GE candidate than Clinton.

That is a fact.

karynnj

(59,504 posts)

13. completely agree - and here's a link to polling report.com which gathers the polls together

Reply to CoffeeCat (Reply #10)

Fri Jan 29, 2016, 08:16 PM

Jan 2016

look at the two most recent ones - http://pollingreport.com/wh16gen.htm

karynnj

(59,504 posts)

11. Pollingreport.com would say polifacts is wrong - look at their main page for the latest results

Reply to Cali_Democrat (Original post)

Fri Jan 29, 2016, 08:14 PM

Jan 2016

http://pollingreport.com/

If you want another poll showing the same thing - look at the second entry here - http://pollingreport.com/wh16gen.htm The first one is the detail on the one graphed on the main page.

jfern

(5,204 posts)

12. Politicifact is wrong

Reply to Cali_Democrat (Original post)

Fri Jan 29, 2016, 08:16 PM

Jan 2016

Just check the last national general election poll.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511071816

riversedge

(70,307 posts)

15. this lie has been repeated so often that Sanders and fans believe it and live by it.

Reply to Cali_Democrat (Original post)

Fri Jan 29, 2016, 08:28 PM

Jan 2016

CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)

16. It's not a lie. The polls clearly spell out those GE match-ups

Reply to riversedge (Reply #15)

Fri Jan 29, 2016, 09:04 PM

Jan 2016

and Bernie beats Rubio, Trump and Kruz.

These polls were widely discussed on multiple media outlets. I heard these polls discussed on "River to River" on NPR.

This is Hillary's lie-based attempt to punch a hole in the facts.

The problem is--people aren't as stupid as she thinks they are.

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