2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumTomorrow's Post Iowa threads.
Whatever the result, there will be threads claiming this a great victory. There will be others claiming Iowa is unrepresentative. There will be threads claiming why it went wrong/right. And there'll be a lot of vitriol and backbiting, none of which will make any difference to the actual result.
Response to Bad Dog (Original post)
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Crowing about winning Iowa, as if it were a golden ticket to the nomination, is ridiculous, regardless of who wins.
Win decisively in New York or California--THEN you can crow.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)interesting comment in the article about what happens if Bernie wins Iowa and NH.
"But Sanders would have an avalanche of momentum going for him after wins in Iowa and New Hampshire. The national press corps, which spins even minor stories into crises for Clinton, would portray Clintons campaign as being in a meltdown. Momentum usually matters in the primaries and sometimes it matters a lot but exactly how many Democrats would change their votes as a result is hard to say. The wave of negative coverage might be especially bad for Clinton, but its also possible that, because the media has sounded false alarms on Clinton before, shed be relatively immune to the effects of another round of bad press. One factor helping Sanders: Voters who had been attracted to his message before, but who werent sure he could win, would mostly have their doubts removed after he beat Clinton twice."
(That last sentence doesn't hold for me. I never thought Bernie could not win the primary. I do think he would very likely lose the general, and no doubts would be removed by any primary contest wins).
Bucky
(54,027 posts)Hortensis
(58,785 posts)and 538 reports possibly not much of a lead for Hillary there, though data are not good. Then SC, about which,
"One state that doesnt look good for Sanders is South Carolina, where Clinton is ahead by 31 points and where the Democratic electorate is majority black and relatively conservative. If Sanders wins there, or comes within a few points of doing so, that will be an unambiguous sign that Clinton is in deep trouble.
If Clintons firewall holds in South Carolina, however, she also figures to perform well in the SEC Primary states of March 1, at which point shed potentially build up a fairly large delegate lead and tamp down some of the panicky media coverage."
It must be fun for analysts to try to foresee and quantify the potential effects of what they know is typically overall inaccurate and often dishonest national media coverage.
Bucky
(54,027 posts)I blame the zeitgeist
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)Neither of which are really true
1. This is 2008 all over again for Hillary
2. The dream is dead/back to reality for Bernie
brooklynite
(94,597 posts)NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Bad Dog
(2,025 posts)And I don't think his expression will be changing anytime soon.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)Bad Dog
(2,025 posts)If you weren't quite so partisan you'd see he's bored to death.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)I was giving you a silly answer to your silly post.
Bad Dog
(2,025 posts)It is boring, it's been going on and on and on. Most of the threads on DU are taken up with this O so tedious topic, a poll here, an endorsement there, and it keeps dragging on and on.
The Labour party leadership contest was done and dusted in a few months, it never had the chance to become boring.
olddots
(10,237 posts)is a prediction