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Bad Dog

(2,025 posts)
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 07:09 AM Feb 2016

Tomorrow's Post Iowa threads.

Whatever the result, there will be threads claiming this a great victory. There will be others claiming Iowa is unrepresentative. There will be threads claiming why it went wrong/right. And there'll be a lot of vitriol and backbiting, none of which will make any difference to the actual result.

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Tomorrow's Post Iowa threads. (Original Post) Bad Dog Feb 2016 OP
Message auto-removed Name removed Feb 2016 #1
Exactly DFW Feb 2016 #2
Oh, yes. Fivethirtyeight.com had an Hortensis Feb 2016 #3
South Carolina has always been the firewall for establishment candidates Bucky Feb 2016 #5
Thank goodness. For Dems, Nevada comes before SC, Hortensis Feb 2016 #6
you're becoming cynical Bucky Feb 2016 #4
Two possible narratives tomorrow firebrand80 Feb 2016 #7
In other words, Tuesday brooklynite Feb 2016 #8
+1 NurseJackie Feb 2016 #10
This kid's face says it all. Bad Dog Feb 2016 #9
His face says, "I can't believe we actually did it." morningfog Feb 2016 #11
Really? Bad Dog Feb 2016 #12
He's a kid, of course he's bored. morningfog Feb 2016 #13
I was saying the truth. Bad Dog Feb 2016 #14
I predict your prediction olddots Feb 2016 #15
Best prediction thus far! alcibiades_mystery Feb 2016 #16

Response to Bad Dog (Original post)

DFW

(54,405 posts)
2. Exactly
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 07:27 AM
Feb 2016

Crowing about winning Iowa, as if it were a golden ticket to the nomination, is ridiculous, regardless of who wins.
Win decisively in New York or California--THEN you can crow.

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
3. Oh, yes. Fivethirtyeight.com had an
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 07:36 AM
Feb 2016

interesting comment in the article about what happens if Bernie wins Iowa and NH.

"But Sanders would have an avalanche of momentum going for him after wins in Iowa and New Hampshire. The national press corps, which spins even minor stories into crises for Clinton, would portray Clinton’s campaign as being in a meltdown. Momentum usually matters in the primaries — and sometimes it matters a lot — but exactly how many Democrats would change their votes as a result is hard to say. The wave of negative coverage might be especially bad for Clinton, but it’s also possible that, because the media has sounded false alarms on Clinton before, she’d be relatively immune to the effects of another round of bad press. One factor helping Sanders: Voters who had been attracted to his message before, but who weren’t sure he could win, would mostly have their doubts removed after he beat Clinton twice."

(That last sentence doesn't hold for me. I never thought Bernie could not win the primary. I do think he would very likely lose the general, and no doubts would be removed by any primary contest wins).

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
6. Thank goodness. For Dems, Nevada comes before SC,
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 07:57 AM
Feb 2016

and 538 reports possibly not much of a lead for Hillary there, though data are not good. Then SC, about which,

"One state that doesn’t look good for Sanders is South Carolina, where Clinton is ahead by 31 points and where the Democratic electorate is majority black and relatively conservative. If Sanders wins there, or comes within a few points of doing so, that will be an unambiguous sign that Clinton is in deep trouble.

If Clinton’s firewall holds in South Carolina, however, she also figures to perform well in the “SEC Primary” states of March 1, at which point she’d potentially build up a fairly large delegate lead and tamp down some of the panicky media coverage."

It must be fun for analysts to try to foresee and quantify the potential effects of what they know is typically overall inaccurate and often dishonest national media coverage.

firebrand80

(2,760 posts)
7. Two possible narratives tomorrow
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 08:07 AM
Feb 2016

Neither of which are really true

1. This is 2008 all over again for Hillary
2. The dream is dead/back to reality for Bernie

Bad Dog

(2,025 posts)
14. I was saying the truth.
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 11:51 AM
Feb 2016

It is boring, it's been going on and on and on. Most of the threads on DU are taken up with this O so tedious topic, a poll here, an endorsement there, and it keeps dragging on and on.

The Labour party leadership contest was done and dusted in a few months, it never had the chance to become boring.

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