Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search
77 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Team Hillary better hope that they win today (Original Post) virtualobserver Feb 2016 OP
Hillary can still win without Iowa and NH bigwillq Feb 2016 #1
never underestimate the power of momentum virtualobserver Feb 2016 #2
Never underestimate the tightness of the calendar at this point... brooklynite Feb 2016 #4
Never underestimate the Bernie-meister and the power of the people to effect change. InAbLuEsTaTe Feb 2016 #30
Well, yes, of course. NanceGreggs Feb 2016 #76
Bullcrap Robbins Feb 2016 #5
Harkin won Iowa, Brown won New Hampshire...1992 alcibiades_mystery Feb 2016 #7
Tsongas won in 1992 virtualobserver Feb 2016 #8
My apologies alcibiades_mystery Feb 2016 #36
Did either of them remotely generate the breadth of support Sanders has? Armstead Feb 2016 #40
I am commenting only on the previous poster's post alcibiades_mystery Feb 2016 #42
And Clinton went on to lose 9 Dem seats in the House in '92, Art_from_Ark Feb 2016 #33
True dat alcibiades_mystery Feb 2016 #37
FDR lost 81 seats in the House, 8 seats in the Senate, and 13 governorships in '38 wyldwolf Feb 2016 #58
'38 was a mid-term election Art_from_Ark Feb 2016 #67
Yeah this time, Sanders is what... 17% with blacks in SC?! ... She can loose both IA and NH and win uponit7771 Feb 2016 #16
Did you know? Avalux Feb 2016 #46
This message was self-deleted by its author Avalux Feb 2016 #64
Get ready for a Night of Long Knives, Hillary-style - nt KingCharlemagne Feb 2016 #3
Not to worry... Bernie can handle himself. InAbLuEsTaTe Feb 2016 #31
I know Bernie can handle himself. The "Night of Long Knives" refers KingCharlemagne Feb 2016 #35
Didn't DU have a Night of the Long Knives of our own? demwing Feb 2016 #54
"The Great Reveal," Election Night 2004 emulatorloo Feb 2016 #55
2004 elections Spirochete Feb 2016 #73
Oh boy, so HRC supporters are like Hitler! emulatorloo Feb 2016 #56
^^Someone who obviously doesn't know jack shit about KingCharlemagne Feb 2016 #60
So who is the SA and who is Hitler in the analogy? NT arely staircase Feb 2016 #63
Yes I am far to stupid to write 'A Night of Long Knives - Hillary Style' emulatorloo Feb 2016 #66
So Hillary is going to travel to 1930s Germany and purge the SA? arely staircase Feb 2016 #62
Don't worry, we will. Thanks for the pep talk. oasis Feb 2016 #6
you are welcome virtualobserver Feb 2016 #9
It doesn't matter speaktruthtopower Feb 2016 #10
Yes it does Robbins Feb 2016 #14
Bernie speaktruthtopower Feb 2016 #18
That's crazy compassion Robbins Feb 2016 #24
Too late. She already wounded herself on the left flank, and it may be fatal. nt DisgustipatedinCA Feb 2016 #47
So wounded she is about to beat Bernie in the super liberal Iowa caucus arely staircase Feb 2016 #65
It looks to Bernie is the one who needs to win big cause he's headed into a buzz saw later on. KittyWampus Feb 2016 #11
They both need to win virtualobserver Feb 2016 #13
He's up by 31 in the latest NH poll. Cue Casablanca: "We'll always KingCharlemagne Feb 2016 #17
Funding concerns from Hillary? TCJ70 Feb 2016 #12
not funding concerns.....optics virtualobserver Feb 2016 #22
Why? ismnotwasm Feb 2016 #15
For two reasons- the resource allocation, and the loss of inevitability virtualobserver Feb 2016 #19
NH isn't the end...it's barely the second state. And if Sanders wins, it will be nothing lunamagica Feb 2016 #20
We will have to agree to disagree virtualobserver Feb 2016 #21
Keep dreaming... Bernie is going to eat Hillary's lunch... and dinner. InAbLuEsTaTe Feb 2016 #32
Sorry, but the facts favor her. NH, such a small state. Then we get the bigger states with lunamagica Feb 2016 #34
NC being a brick wall on BS' path. Nt arely staircase Feb 2016 #69
there is no polls in real clear politics showing him up by 31 in NH dsc Feb 2016 #23
very new- Bernie 61 Hillary 30 virtualobserver Feb 2016 #26
As has been pointed out a numbber of times, Clinton is stronger everywhere else in the nation. Nitram Feb 2016 #25
Hillary used to have huge leads in Iowa and NH virtualobserver Feb 2016 #27
It looks like a virtual draw, meaning the are awarded almost the same number of delegates. yardwork Feb 2016 #28
the number is irrelevant - it is the win that creates the momentum virtualobserver Feb 2016 #29
Maybe. yardwork Feb 2016 #45
According to Nate Silver, Sanders can win both Iowa and NH and still not be the nominee Gothmog Feb 2016 #38
momentum and exposure do not show up in Nate Silver's numbers virtualobserver Feb 2016 #43
Iowa was a must win for Sanders Gothmog Feb 2016 #75
he didn't lose...he matched Clinton virtualobserver Feb 2016 #77
Iowa and New Hampshire are must wins for Sanders Gothmog Feb 2016 #39
Up by 31? As a Bernie guy I'd love that, but it seems way exagerated Armstead Feb 2016 #41
I've seen two others in the high twenties virtualobserver Feb 2016 #44
Hillary will destroy Bernie in the south in any event workinclasszero Feb 2016 #48
we will see virtualobserver Feb 2016 #50
Just like her firewalls in '08!nt Joe the Revelator Feb 2016 #57
Good thing that no Obama's are in the race eh? workinclasszero Feb 2016 #59
What is it like being out of touch w/ reality? Joe the Revelator Feb 2016 #68
Ask Bernie who is going to get Ryan workinclasszero Feb 2016 #70
I'd rather live in a world where we can hope that our liberal ideals are at least brought to the... Joe the Revelator Feb 2016 #71
We will. arely staircase Feb 2016 #49
Sanders tells the truth, at least to the extent he sees it. HRC will do and say anything to win. mikehiggins Feb 2016 #53
So do I arely staircase Feb 2016 #61
So Hillary needs to win Iowa, but Bernie doesn't. Riiiight. Metric System Feb 2016 #51
no, they both do. virtualobserver Feb 2016 #52
Can we ease up on the hyperbole around here a bit? Proud Liberal Dem Feb 2016 #72
It isn't hyperbole. If either one lose both....they are in deep trouble virtualobserver Feb 2016 #74

InAbLuEsTaTe

(24,122 posts)
30. Never underestimate the Bernie-meister and the power of the people to effect change.
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 10:42 AM
Feb 2016

The billionaire class, the Wall Street bankers, the political elites, etc, who support Hillary, are nervous for a reason...

Bernie & Elizabeth 2016!!!

NanceGreggs

(27,815 posts)
76. Well, yes, of course.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 02:08 AM
Feb 2016

Because all of we HRC supporters are billionaires, Wall Street bankers and political elites.

And I've seen no evidence that any of the groups you've identified are "nervous" about anything. I know that's been a popular myth. But there has never been any proof offered to back it up, other than people saying it on the interntetz.

 

alcibiades_mystery

(36,437 posts)
7. Harkin won Iowa, Brown won New Hampshire...1992
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 09:40 AM
Feb 2016


I agree that it would be deeply unlikely this time around, given the transformed primary structure.

 

Armstead

(47,803 posts)
40. Did either of them remotely generate the breadth of support Sanders has?
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 11:02 AM
Feb 2016

I guess I shouldn't speak prematurely because Sanders could still lose one or both states....But assuming he at least holds his own, he has generated national excitement and enthusiasm that did not exist for Harkin or Tsongas

 

alcibiades_mystery

(36,437 posts)
42. I am commenting only on the previous poster's post
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 11:10 AM
Feb 2016

To wit: "a frontrunner winning nomination without iowa and NH? not likely."

My comment is aimed only at that. I am making zero other claims.

Have a nice Caucus day!

Art_from_Ark

(27,247 posts)
33. And Clinton went on to lose 9 Dem seats in the House in '92,
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 10:48 AM
Feb 2016

in an election in which the victor traditionally has some coattails.

And he lost both the House and the Senate in '94.

wyldwolf

(43,867 posts)
58. FDR lost 81 seats in the House, 8 seats in the Senate, and 13 governorships in '38
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 02:25 PM
Feb 2016

So what's your point?

Art_from_Ark

(27,247 posts)
67. '38 was a mid-term election
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 08:01 PM
Feb 2016

The party in power traditionally loses seats in mid-terms. Roosevelt didn't lose seats in '34, though.

However, the party that wins the White House nearly always has a net gain of Congressional seats as well in a presidential election year. Clinton couldn't gain seats in either of his presidential elections. And Hillary doesn't seem to be the type who has coattails that are any longer than her husband's.

uponit7771

(90,347 posts)
16. Yeah this time, Sanders is what... 17% with blacks in SC?! ... She can loose both IA and NH and win
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 09:59 AM
Feb 2016

... the nomination...

Sanderes numbers with POC stink

Avalux

(35,015 posts)
46. Did you know?
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 12:37 PM
Feb 2016

Fun fact: no candidate (Democratic or Republican) in history has won both Iowa and New Hampshire and lost their party's nomination.

It's called MOMENTUM.

Response to bigwillq (Reply #1)

 

KingCharlemagne

(7,908 posts)
35. I know Bernie can handle himself. The "Night of Long Knives" refers
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 10:50 AM
Feb 2016

to a purge of the Nazi Party's SA by Hitler and his cronies in the SS and German military. IOW, a purge of erstwhile party faithful:

The Night of the Long Knives . . . was a purge that took place in Nazi Germany from June 30 to July 2, 1934, when the Nazi regime carried out a series of political ex-judicial executions. Leading figures of the left-wing Strasserist faction of the Nazi Party (NSDAP), along with its figurehead, Gregor Strasser, were killed, as were prominent conservative anti-Nazis (such as former Chancellor Kurt von Schleicher and Gustav Ritter von Kahr, who had suppressed Adolf Hitler's Beer Hall Putsch in 1923). Many of those killed were leaders of the Sturmabteilung (SA), the paramilitary Brownshirts.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Night_of_the_Long_Knives


 

demwing

(16,916 posts)
54. Didn't DU have a Night of the Long Knives of our own?
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 01:25 PM
Feb 2016

I remember several long time (at the time) DUers who revealed themselves as Conservative plants, and were booted en masse.

Anyone remember the details?

emulatorloo

(44,131 posts)
55. "The Great Reveal," Election Night 2004
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 02:05 PM
Feb 2016

After results gave in, a couple three members posing as "progressives" revealed they were conservative trolls. Had done a lot of attacks from the left on Kerry.

Anyway if you search "The Great Reveal" you'll probably find some threads about it.

Spirochete

(5,264 posts)
73. 2004 elections
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 08:45 PM
Feb 2016

I remember someone who called himself Seventh Son and used to bash Kerry a lot, outing himself. There were a couple others, too.

speaktruthtopower

(800 posts)
10. It doesn't matter
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 09:48 AM
Feb 2016

She'll be the nominee unless a major scandal breaks, and it would have to be something monumental for the government to act at this late moment. She needs Bernie to stay nice in the meantime so she isn't wounded on her left flank.

speaktruthtopower

(800 posts)
18. Bernie
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 10:04 AM
Feb 2016

You're assuming.

Money has co-opted both parties. Wall Street sidled up to the likes of the Clintons because it doesn't want to be regulated. Big business took over the Republicans and squelched the limited government point of view because it want to feed uninterrupted at the public trough.

Bernie is the Ron Paul of the left.... an instrument that lets the base blow off steam during the primaries, but safely unelectable. The idealistic kids out there supporting him are cause for optimism, I hope they figure the scheme out before they're my age.

Robbins

(5,066 posts)
24. That's crazy compassion
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 10:16 AM
Feb 2016

Paul was never as strong as bernie is.Bernie does better than Clinton In GE matchups.

you want ot stop trump from being elected vote for bernie.she will lose.

arely staircase

(12,482 posts)
65. So wounded she is about to beat Bernie in the super liberal Iowa caucus
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 05:00 PM
Feb 2016

He should have IA and NH in his column when he heads to his Southern Waterloo.

TCJ70

(4,387 posts)
12. Funding concerns from Hillary?
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 09:49 AM
Feb 2016

Yeah, right...she only needs about 3 of her average donors to cover the bases.

 

virtualobserver

(8,760 posts)
19. For two reasons- the resource allocation, and the loss of inevitability
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 10:04 AM
Feb 2016

Bill was second guessing Robby Mook on the focus on Iowa.....If it turns out that he was right, and Robby was wrong...that will cause dissension.....and a lot of second guessing from the media.

Inevitability is a powerful tool......it can crush opposition.....life is much harder without it.

A one-two punch of IA and NH is powerful enough but with a 31 point lead in the latest NH poll, that second punch could be a doozy.

lunamagica

(9,967 posts)
20. NH isn't the end...it's barely the second state. And if Sanders wins, it will be nothing
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 10:06 AM
Feb 2016

but a bump on Hillary's road to the WH

InAbLuEsTaTe

(24,122 posts)
32. Keep dreaming... Bernie is going to eat Hillary's lunch... and dinner.
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 10:46 AM
Feb 2016

As Hillary would say... "bank on it"!

Bernie & Elizabeth 2016!!!

lunamagica

(9,967 posts)
34. Sorry, but the facts favor her. NH, such a small state. Then we get the bigger states with
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 10:49 AM
Feb 2016

diverse populations. That will be it for the Sanders campaign.

dsc

(52,162 posts)
23. there is no polls in real clear politics showing him up by 31 in NH
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 10:16 AM
Feb 2016

at least not within the last week and a half.

Nitram

(22,813 posts)
25. As has been pointed out a numbber of times, Clinton is stronger everywhere else in the nation.
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 10:20 AM
Feb 2016

It is actually Sanders who has to win at least one of these two because he has solid strength there.

Gothmog

(145,313 posts)
38. According to Nate Silver, Sanders can win both Iowa and NH and still not be the nominee
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 10:54 AM
Feb 2016

A candidate can win both Iowa and New Hampshire on the basis of only white voters and such a victory will not help in other states http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-new-hampshire/

So why do I still think Sanders is a factional candidate? He hasn’t made any inroads with non-white voters — in particular black voters, a crucial wing of the Democratic coalition and whose support was a big part of President Obama’s toppling of Clinton in the 2008 primary. Not only are African-Americans the majority of Democratic voters in the South Carolina primary (a crucial early contest), they make up somewhere between 19 percent and 24 percent of Democrats nationwide. In the past two YouGov polls, Sanders has averaged just 5 percent with black voters. Ipsos’s weekly tracking poll has him at an average of only 7 percent over the past two weeks. Fox News (the only live-interview pollster to publish results among non-white voters in July and August) had Clinton leading Sanders 62-10 among non-white Democrats in mid-July and 65-14 in mid-August. Clinton’s edge with non-whites held even as Sanders cut her overall lead from 40 percentage points to 19....

But even if you put aside those metrics, Sanders is running into the problem that other insurgent Democrats have in past election cycles. You can win Iowa relying mostly on white liberals. You can win New Hampshire. But as Gary Hart and Bill Bradley learned, you can’t win a Democratic nomination without substantial support from African-Americans.

Sanders is likely to do well in Iowa, New Hampshire, Utah and Vermont but these states combined have less than one-half of the delegates as Texas alone.

Unless Sanders can broaden his appeal, then he will not be the nominee
 

virtualobserver

(8,760 posts)
43. momentum and exposure do not show up in Nate Silver's numbers
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 11:18 AM
Feb 2016

Bernie has been flying under the radar for months, with almost zero exposure.

So we will see, won't we.

Gothmog

(145,313 posts)
75. Iowa was a must win for Sanders
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 01:59 AM
Feb 2016

Sanders is only polling well in four states where the voting population is 90+% and if Sanders can not win in Iowa then he is in trouble in South Carolina and the Super Tuesday states http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/02/01/iowa_caucus_stakes_for_hillary_clinton_and_bernie_sanders.html

For Bernie, meanwhile, a Hillary victory would be an undeniable blow. With the exception of New Hampshire and his home state of Vermont, the Hawkeye State—with a Democratic electorate that skews white and liberal—represents the friendliest terrain on the map for Sanders. If Bernie can’t win in Iowa, Clinton and her allies will have no problem brushing off a Sanders win in New Hampshire next week as little more than the result of the senator being a near-native son in the Granite State. Sanders, then, would be in need of a win elsewhere to reset the race—and soon—but won’t have any obvious place to turn.
 

virtualobserver

(8,760 posts)
77. he didn't lose...he matched Clinton
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 02:08 AM
Feb 2016

Robby Mook poured 90% of the campaigns resources, and engineered a tie.

4 months ago, Hillary led by 30 points in IOWA.

This is viewed as a success for Bernie, and a failure for Hillary.

Gothmog

(145,313 posts)
39. Iowa and New Hampshire are must wins for Sanders
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 10:57 AM
Feb 2016

A candidate can win both Iowa and New Hampshire on the basis of only white voters and such a victory will not help in other states http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-new-hampshire/

So why do I still think Sanders is a factional candidate? He hasn’t made any inroads with non-white voters — in particular black voters, a crucial wing of the Democratic coalition and whose support was a big part of President Obama’s toppling of Clinton in the 2008 primary. Not only are African-Americans the majority of Democratic voters in the South Carolina primary (a crucial early contest), they make up somewhere between 19 percent and 24 percent of Democrats nationwide. In the past two YouGov polls, Sanders has averaged just 5 percent with black voters. Ipsos’s weekly tracking poll has him at an average of only 7 percent over the past two weeks. Fox News (the only live-interview pollster to publish results among non-white voters in July and August) had Clinton leading Sanders 62-10 among non-white Democrats in mid-July and 65-14 in mid-August. Clinton’s edge with non-whites held even as Sanders cut her overall lead from 40 percentage points to 19....

But even if you put aside those metrics, Sanders is running into the problem that other insurgent Democrats have in past election cycles. You can win Iowa relying mostly on white liberals. You can win New Hampshire. But as Gary Hart and Bill Bradley learned, you can’t win a Democratic nomination without substantial support from African-Americans.

Sanders is likely to do well in Iowa, New Hampshire, Utah and Vermont but these states combined have less than one-half of the delegates as Texas alone.

Unless Sanders can broaden his appeal, then he will not be the nominee
 

virtualobserver

(8,760 posts)
44. I've seen two others in the high twenties
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 11:20 AM
Feb 2016

This poll is a rolling poll, so we will also get to see movement between now and the primary.

 

workinclasszero

(28,270 posts)
59. Good thing that no Obama's are in the race eh?
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 02:25 PM
Feb 2016

Not even close LOL

You know the guy that brought huge, unprecedented numbers of new voters to the polls to vote for him?

Unlike Bernie who elicited a big yawn with new voters.

Oh well, good try Bernie

 

workinclasszero

(28,270 posts)
70. Ask Bernie who is going to get Ryan
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 08:32 PM
Feb 2016

And the rest of the teahaddists in the house to pass free health care for all, free college, free paid vacations, 15 dollar an hour minimum wage, force all us corps to bring back high paying jobs to America.

And you say I'm out of touch with reality? WOW!

 

Joe the Revelator

(14,915 posts)
71. I'd rather live in a world where we can hope that our liberal ideals are at least brought to the...
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 08:36 PM
Feb 2016

...table, than to just say nope, the GOP is stronger than us, fuck it.

mikehiggins

(5,614 posts)
53. Sanders tells the truth, at least to the extent he sees it. HRC will do and say anything to win.
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 01:17 PM
Feb 2016

I am amazed at how convinced people are that nobody notices the difference. To me the issue comes down to what has happened in this country over the last thirty years. Even the media has wound up controlled by a handful of the 1%. The question, in my mind, is how has that status quo worked out for you?

Are the voters in the March primaries more likely to believe in the story being peddled by the establishment than to think things through?

How exactly did the Inevitable One become an icon of the poor and downtrodden? Was it Bill's welfare reform? HRC's longtime support for gay issues? Support for NAFTA and the GECC and the new gold standard TPP? How did any of that help anyone but the rich and powerful?

I am seventy years old and I'm supporting the balding old jew from burlington/brooklyn. I am not surprised that the establishment is supporting the Inevitable One. They know all too well what a Sanders administration would mean to them. It'd be a shame to see the Democratic voters cast another vote against their own best interests.

Proud Liberal Dem

(24,414 posts)
72. Can we ease up on the hyperbole around here a bit?
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 08:45 PM
Feb 2016

Iowa and New Hampshire aren't going to decide the Democratic primary for either Bernie or Hillary.

Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»2016 Postmortem»Team Hillary better hope ...