2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumTeam Hillary better hope that they win today
Bernie is up by 31 in New Hampshire.......
Robby Mook put 90% of their resources into Iowa......if he fails there.....the second guessing will begin.
bigwillq
(72,790 posts)And likely will.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)brooklynite
(94,595 posts)InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,122 posts)The billionaire class, the Wall Street bankers, the political elites, etc, who support Hillary, are nervous for a reason...
Bernie & Elizabeth 2016!!!
NanceGreggs
(27,815 posts)Because all of we HRC supporters are billionaires, Wall Street bankers and political elites.
And I've seen no evidence that any of the groups you've identified are "nervous" about anything. I know that's been a popular myth. But there has never been any proof offered to back it up, other than people saying it on the interntetz.
a frontrunner winning nomination without iowa and NH? not likely.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)I agree that it would be deeply unlikely this time around, given the transformed primary structure.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)Harkin won Iowa, Tsongas won New Hampshire.
Point remains the same.
Armstead
(47,803 posts)I guess I shouldn't speak prematurely because Sanders could still lose one or both states....But assuming he at least holds his own, he has generated national excitement and enthusiasm that did not exist for Harkin or Tsongas
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)To wit: "a frontrunner winning nomination without iowa and NH? not likely."
My comment is aimed only at that. I am making zero other claims.
Have a nice Caucus day!
Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)in an election in which the victor traditionally has some coattails.
And he lost both the House and the Senate in '94.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)I was responding to the claim in the post above, though.
wyldwolf
(43,867 posts)So what's your point?
Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)The party in power traditionally loses seats in mid-terms. Roosevelt didn't lose seats in '34, though.
However, the party that wins the White House nearly always has a net gain of Congressional seats as well in a presidential election year. Clinton couldn't gain seats in either of his presidential elections. And Hillary doesn't seem to be the type who has coattails that are any longer than her husband's.
uponit7771
(90,347 posts)... the nomination...
Sanderes numbers with POC stink
Avalux
(35,015 posts)Fun fact: no candidate (Democratic or Republican) in history has won both Iowa and New Hampshire and lost their party's nomination.
It's called MOMENTUM.
Response to bigwillq (Reply #1)
Avalux This message was self-deleted by its author.
KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,122 posts)KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)to a purge of the Nazi Party's SA by Hitler and his cronies in the SS and German military. IOW, a purge of erstwhile party faithful:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Night_of_the_Long_Knives
demwing
(16,916 posts)I remember several long time (at the time) DUers who revealed themselves as Conservative plants, and were booted en masse.
Anyone remember the details?
emulatorloo
(44,131 posts)After results gave in, a couple three members posing as "progressives" revealed they were conservative trolls. Had done a lot of attacks from the left on Kerry.
Anyway if you search "The Great Reveal" you'll probably find some threads about it.
Spirochete
(5,264 posts)I remember someone who called himself Seventh Son and used to bash Kerry a lot, outing himself. There were a couple others, too.
emulatorloo
(44,131 posts)Which DU Bernie supporter will be executed first?
KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)the Night of Long Knives.
arely staircase
(12,482 posts)emulatorloo
(44,131 posts)arely staircase
(12,482 posts)I am not saying that she couldn't.
oasis
(49,389 posts)virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)speaktruthtopower
(800 posts)She'll be the nominee unless a major scandal breaks, and it would have to be something monumental for the government to act at this late moment. She needs Bernie to stay nice in the meantime so she isn't wounded on her left flank.
Robbins
(5,066 posts)this entire reasoning is flawed.of course i expect that from clinton supporters.
speaktruthtopower
(800 posts)You're assuming.
Money has co-opted both parties. Wall Street sidled up to the likes of the Clintons because it doesn't want to be regulated. Big business took over the Republicans and squelched the limited government point of view because it want to feed uninterrupted at the public trough.
Bernie is the Ron Paul of the left.... an instrument that lets the base blow off steam during the primaries, but safely unelectable. The idealistic kids out there supporting him are cause for optimism, I hope they figure the scheme out before they're my age.
Robbins
(5,066 posts)Paul was never as strong as bernie is.Bernie does better than Clinton In GE matchups.
you want ot stop trump from being elected vote for bernie.she will lose.
DisgustipatedinCA
(12,530 posts)arely staircase
(12,482 posts)He should have IA and NH in his column when he heads to his Southern Waterloo.
KittyWampus
(55,894 posts)virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)Bernie for momentum
Hillary to keep her inevitability bubble from bursting
KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)have South Carolina."
TCJ70
(4,387 posts)Yeah, right...she only needs about 3 of her average donors to cover the bases.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)ismnotwasm
(41,989 posts)virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)Bill was second guessing Robby Mook on the focus on Iowa.....If it turns out that he was right, and Robby was wrong...that will cause dissension.....and a lot of second guessing from the media.
Inevitability is a powerful tool......it can crush opposition.....life is much harder without it.
A one-two punch of IA and NH is powerful enough but with a 31 point lead in the latest NH poll, that second punch could be a doozy.
lunamagica
(9,967 posts)but a bump on Hillary's road to the WH
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,122 posts)As Hillary would say... "bank on it"!
Bernie & Elizabeth 2016!!!
lunamagica
(9,967 posts)diverse populations. That will be it for the Sanders campaign.
arely staircase
(12,482 posts)dsc
(52,162 posts)at least not within the last week and a half.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)Nitram
(22,813 posts)It is actually Sanders who has to win at least one of these two because he has solid strength there.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)As people encounter Bernie, they like what they see.
yardwork
(61,650 posts)virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)yardwork
(61,650 posts)Gothmog
(145,313 posts)A candidate can win both Iowa and New Hampshire on the basis of only white voters and such a victory will not help in other states http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-new-hampshire/
But even if you put aside those metrics, Sanders is running into the problem that other insurgent Democrats have in past election cycles. You can win Iowa relying mostly on white liberals. You can win New Hampshire. But as Gary Hart and Bill Bradley learned, you cant win a Democratic nomination without substantial support from African-Americans.
Sanders is likely to do well in Iowa, New Hampshire, Utah and Vermont but these states combined have less than one-half of the delegates as Texas alone.
Unless Sanders can broaden his appeal, then he will not be the nominee
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)Bernie has been flying under the radar for months, with almost zero exposure.
So we will see, won't we.
Gothmog
(145,313 posts)Sanders is only polling well in four states where the voting population is 90+% and if Sanders can not win in Iowa then he is in trouble in South Carolina and the Super Tuesday states http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/02/01/iowa_caucus_stakes_for_hillary_clinton_and_bernie_sanders.html
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)Robby Mook poured 90% of the campaigns resources, and engineered a tie.
4 months ago, Hillary led by 30 points in IOWA.
This is viewed as a success for Bernie, and a failure for Hillary.
Gothmog
(145,313 posts)A candidate can win both Iowa and New Hampshire on the basis of only white voters and such a victory will not help in other states http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-new-hampshire/
But even if you put aside those metrics, Sanders is running into the problem that other insurgent Democrats have in past election cycles. You can win Iowa relying mostly on white liberals. You can win New Hampshire. But as Gary Hart and Bill Bradley learned, you cant win a Democratic nomination without substantial support from African-Americans.
Sanders is likely to do well in Iowa, New Hampshire, Utah and Vermont but these states combined have less than one-half of the delegates as Texas alone.
Unless Sanders can broaden his appeal, then he will not be the nominee
Armstead
(47,803 posts)virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)This poll is a rolling poll, so we will also get to see movement between now and the primary.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Have a nice day
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)Joe the Revelator
(14,915 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Not even close LOL
You know the guy that brought huge, unprecedented numbers of new voters to the polls to vote for him?
Unlike Bernie who elicited a big yawn with new voters.
Oh well, good try Bernie
Joe the Revelator
(14,915 posts)I really want to know.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)And the rest of the teahaddists in the house to pass free health care for all, free college, free paid vacations, 15 dollar an hour minimum wage, force all us corps to bring back high paying jobs to America.
And you say I'm out of touch with reality? WOW!
Joe the Revelator
(14,915 posts)...table, than to just say nope, the GOP is stronger than us, fuck it.
arely staircase
(12,482 posts)Then Bernie wins NH. Then it heads South and 'the Bern' is done.
mikehiggins
(5,614 posts)I am amazed at how convinced people are that nobody notices the difference. To me the issue comes down to what has happened in this country over the last thirty years. Even the media has wound up controlled by a handful of the 1%. The question, in my mind, is how has that status quo worked out for you?
Are the voters in the March primaries more likely to believe in the story being peddled by the establishment than to think things through?
How exactly did the Inevitable One become an icon of the poor and downtrodden? Was it Bill's welfare reform? HRC's longtime support for gay issues? Support for NAFTA and the GECC and the new gold standard TPP? How did any of that help anyone but the rich and powerful?
I am seventy years old and I'm supporting the balding old jew from burlington/brooklyn. I am not surprised that the establishment is supporting the Inevitable One. They know all too well what a Sanders administration would mean to them. It'd be a shame to see the Democratic voters cast another vote against their own best interests.
arely staircase
(12,482 posts)And I am telling you that you can stick a fork in him when this thing gets to Dixie.
Metric System
(6,048 posts)virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)it will be a rough road ahead for the loser tonight.
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,414 posts)Iowa and New Hampshire aren't going to decide the Democratic primary for either Bernie or Hillary.