"We will lose. The end is near"

Yes, that is pretty much what he would say.

A candidate will say "It's a tough fight"... "We need everyone to get out to vote", etc etc. Especially when it's close, you don't want people to be comfortable and want to make sure everyone of your supporters goes.

No, I would never expect them to say that.

I have seen candidates say, "Our chances are not good in this state, but we are holding our line in NH,...", etc. In fact, that is what Chris Christie said this morning.

So he needs to convince people it's still worth caucusing and volunteering for him. He doesn't want people to stay home because it's not worth it.

These have turned against him? Ah, ok.

Quinnipiac poll finished last nite B49 H46 M3

Not on web 919 likely Dem Iowa caucus participants Jan 25-31

Source TV Morning Joe @8:10 AM EST

I haven't seen that yet

I keep thinking of Howard Dean not having a concession speech ready in case he lost the Iowa caucuses.

And they sure as hell don't say "historic".

OTOH, he seems pretty relaxed, so my guess is that he expects, at worst, to finish a close second. That's all he really needs, given how well he's doing in NH.

a win in NH will be dismissed as bernie winning next door to vermont.

when iowa and NH split on dem side the iowa winner tends to preveil.

Winning Iowa creates momenturm.losing it allows them to go back to dismisses bernie as a joke.

We know that Bernie's leading by comfortable double digits in NH. if Bernie wins Iowa, some will try to dismiss the Iowa and NH wins as being not significant because both states have small minority populations, but Hillary will be faced with the prospect of going into Nevada having lost both of the first two states. Bernie's come from way behind to do well in Iowa. As long as the margin is narrow, he can afford to come in second. That's not what I think will happen, though.

Bernie needs Iowa like Obama needed Iowa. Had Obama lost Iowa in 2008 he would've lost the nomination. It offered him up proof that he could take on, and beat, Hillary Clinton. Even with the loss in New Hampshire, he was still a far more viable candidate nationally than the day before the Iowa Caucus. Hillary came in third in Iowa in '08 and still took Obama to the wire in a primary process that was extremely close.

What Bernie risks with an Iowa defeat is the idea solidifying around Clinton being inevitable. It almost entirely sets up a no-win situation in NH for Bernie. If he wins, it's expected - but if he loses, or the margins are much more narrower, then they'll further write off his campaign.

Iowa offers him the first break from the expected. Look at it like the NBA playoffs. There's a saying that the series truly doesn't begin until the road team wins a game. Iowa is Hillary's home court and NH is Bernie's. The problem here is that the status quo, like the home team winning every game in a series (inevitably, they'll ultimately win the series with this pattern) will fail Bernie if he doesn't steal a state.

After NH is the Nevada Caucus. Hillary has a built-in advantage among Hispanic voters who'll make up a huge number of caucus goers just like in 2008 (and they delivered the state to Hillary). Then there's South Carolina, which, again, is a state built more for Hillary and one she leads overwhelmingly. Now, I do expect many of these states to possibly narrow but the problem is now we're dealing with just weeks - not months like the lead-up to Iowa/NH.

Then comes Mini Super Tuesday. By that point, Hillary could have monumental momentum. If she loses Iowa, though, things change.

But look at the Mini Super Tuesday states:

Seven of the Twelve states are in the South/Midwest (Oklahoma).

Those are not favorable Bernie states.

The behavior coming out of the Clinton campaign in the last few weeks gives the lie to your analysis. She's desperate to win.

expect the red-baiting to begin in honest starting tomorrow.

Iowa has seen HRC and they said "no" last time.

The Sanders campaign in Iowa has gone much the same as Obama's 2008 run -- grassroots and big rallies. Looking good.

It was not a prediction of victory without that all important caveat. Snow or no snow...If you are in Iowa, it isn't going to matter if you like Bernie, or support him and his positions..unless you go to the caucuses.

more exhortations. I'm sure every Iowan who supports Bernie is well aware of the absolute necessity to show up in person at their precinct caucus. (I heard that phone bankers for Bernie had called EVERY NUMBER in the state at least once, which I find simply amazing.)

the first African-American in a predominately white state is historic.

Oooo, I see good results for you!

Now I see the real you ...

Sad ....

Gone. ...

Just about 15 minutes ago, the Des Moines Register released their final poll before the Iowa caucus, and we wanted to make sure you saw the results right away:

Des Moines Register Poll - Iowa (January 30, 2016)
Clinton: 45%
Sanders: 42%

We’ve come so far. Can you imagine how you would feel if we come up just short in Iowa? Especially when our numbers against Republicans are so strong.

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As you read this message, our offices are buzzing across Iowa and New Hampshire. Thousands of volunteers are working their tails off talking to caucus-goers and voters on the phones and at their homes. If every person who has signed up to join our political revolution made one more contribution to Bernie’s campaign today, we would be unstoppable.

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