2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumTom Toles: Hillary Clinton will be elected president today
Donald Trump will win Iowa today and go on to run the table through the rest for the primary season. He will become the Republican nominee and receive a very surprising amount of craven, groveling, desperate support from whats left of his shattered party. But it will only be the waystop to electoral defeat and disaster in November.
He will lose to Hillary Clinton, who will be our next president, like it or not. She will do well enough in Iowa today to overcome Sanders upcoming win in New Hampshire, and then become the Democratic nominee. She will go on to crush Trump in the general and likely lead a ticket that retakes the Senate for the Democrats.
I dont see at this point any need to pretend otherwise. The forces in play are pretty clear right now and there is no particular reason not to simply say it outright.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/opinions/wp/2016/02/01/hillary-clinton-will-be-elected-president-today/
SheilaT
(23,156 posts)I suppose it could happen.
I hope not.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)When the primary will likely continue without a clear winner in both parties.
yardwork
(61,650 posts)mikehiggins
(5,614 posts)That's why so many of us support Sanders and oppose the Inevitable One. If Toles is right then we face four years of "same old, same old"
When was the last time you heard any candidate promise that they would not raise taxes?
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)I have my doubts. It has been said that first time caucus goers might bring him over the top, but, church goers may have a say in that outcome. Cruz, Rubio, even Jebbie may have a shot.
Nanjeanne
(4,961 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Sounds great to me!
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)GO HILLARY!!
DemocraticWing
(1,290 posts)Even Hillary herself would laugh at this column. Bernie supporters who spout such nonsense (probably H.A. Goodman and the like) are delusional as well. This guy has the audacity to not only predict both the Iowa results in both parties tonight, but then go on to predict the winners of the rest of the primaries, and then go on to predict the results of the general election AND who will control the Senate in 2017. November is 9 months away!
I would put the probability of any of those things happening individually as pretty good actually. Hillary is the current favorite in the Democratic primaries, Trump is the current favorite in the Republican primaries, Hillary is the current favorite in the general election, and the Democrats have a good chance (although maybe not over 50%) to pick up the Senate this year with a strong top ticket performance. But the probability of all those things happening exactly like he says? NOT GREAT!
"I don't see at this point any need to pretend otherwise" is not the statement of somebody who so much believes his predictions as it is of somebody who probably knows he's making shit up and that nobody will care if he's wrong. Nobody will remember this column, for the most part. He won't get fired from his job or discredited for being wrong about any of it, and in fact would not be discredited for getting it ALL wrong. How are all the pundits who predicted a Romney win in 2012 doing? They're all still happily employed.
This stuff is what really bugs the hell out of me about the primaries discussion on DU (and elsewhere) however. People don't even make cases for their candidates half the time, instead you just have some Hillary supporters claiming to see the future and some Bernie supporters claiming that all unpleasant facts are made up. We've gone beyond actual debate and discussion into a fantasy-land of political one-upsmanship.
INdemo
(6,994 posts)cartoon drawing of her giving her scream speech
DefenseLawyer
(11,101 posts)At least those poor college students will be safely off the road!
Gore1FL
(21,132 posts)Tierra_y_Libertad
(50,414 posts)whatchamacallit
(15,558 posts)Who's Tom Toles?
John Poet
(2,510 posts)in your primary, you dirty Sanders hippies..."
Damn, I saw that headline and thought I'd somehow overslept until the general election!
Fuck you, WP columnist, I'm not even going to clickthru to this bullshit.
zappaman
(20,606 posts)The Republican party won't let it happen.
Hell, I don't think he truly wants to be president.
He loves the attention and lobbing bombs into the process.