2016 Postmortem

MaynardGeeKrebs

(31 posts) Mon Feb 1, 2016, 03:38 PM Feb 2016

Iowa Caucus MSM Spin Prediction

If Hillary wins by a small margin, the Headlines will be:
- It's all over for Bernie
- Bernie should drop out
- No Chance for Bernie
- Disappointing loss for Bernie, etc.

If Bernie wins by a small margin:
- It doesn't matter, they both get about the same number of delegates

14 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Iowa Caucus MSM Spin Prediction (Original Post) MaynardGeeKrebs Feb 2016 OP

I disagree firebrand80 Feb 2016 #1

The media mainstreetonce Feb 2016 #5

If heard it from time to time firebrand80 Feb 2016 #6

I hope this is the case. This would be so good for Hillary Clinton. Let's go! nt ProudToBeLiberal Feb 2016 #2

I think that is pretty accurate. NCTraveler Feb 2016 #3

Bernie himself said the statement he must win Iowa is a myth Samantha Feb 2016 #12

GE prediction: If Hillary is nominated and loses the "not as bad" wing of the party will blame the Tierra_y_Libertad Feb 2016 #4

Maybe angrychair Feb 2016 #7

For Sanders, it really doesn't matter Tarc Feb 2016 #8

Cue "Casablanca": We'll always have South Carolina - nt KingCharlemagne Feb 2016 #11

the divisions between bases is too great, JPnoodleman Feb 2016 #9

What if Hillary or Bernie win by a large margin? alcibiades_mystery Feb 2016 #10

If large margins... JPnoodleman Feb 2016 #13

And it would ALL be true! :-D NurseJackie Feb 2016 #14

firebrand80

(2,760 posts)

1. I disagree

Reply to MaynardGeeKrebs (Original post)

Mon Feb 1, 2016, 03:41 PM

Feb 2016

If Hillary loses, the media narrative is going to be "This is 2008 all over again"

mainstreetonce

(4,178 posts)

5. The media

Reply to firebrand80 (Reply #1)

Mon Feb 1, 2016, 03:45 PM

Feb 2016

Is already saying that.

firebrand80

(2,760 posts)

6. If heard it from time to time

Reply to mainstreetonce (Reply #5)

Mon Feb 1, 2016, 03:47 PM

Feb 2016

After the polls tightened. If she loses it will be THE narrative

ProudToBeLiberal

(3,964 posts)

2. I hope this is the case. This would be so good for Hillary Clinton. Let's go! nt

Reply to MaynardGeeKrebs (Original post)

Mon Feb 1, 2016, 03:44 PM

Feb 2016

NCTraveler

(30,481 posts)

3. I think that is pretty accurate.

Reply to MaynardGeeKrebs (Original post)

Mon Feb 1, 2016, 03:45 PM

Feb 2016

A Sanders loss tonight and everyone will understand it's over except a very few. A Clinton win tonight and we all know it's over. A Sanders win tonight means the opportunity is still alive, even if small.

Samantha

(9,314 posts)

12. Bernie himself said the statement he must win Iowa is a myth

Reply to NCTraveler (Reply #3)

Mon Feb 1, 2016, 04:02 PM

Feb 2016

I believe he just has to make a really good run, and then it is on to NH.

Sam

Tierra_y_Libertad

(50,414 posts)

4. GE prediction: If Hillary is nominated and loses the "not as bad" wing of the party will blame the

Reply to MaynardGeeKrebs (Original post)

Mon Feb 1, 2016, 03:45 PM

Feb 2016

Left....as usual.

angrychair

(8,702 posts)

7. Maybe

Reply to MaynardGeeKrebs (Original post)

Mon Feb 1, 2016, 03:50 PM

Feb 2016

I hope for the best, except the worse.
Most likely spin (the "expect the worse&quot is:
"Sanders manages small victory, Clinton nomination now set in stone" or something to that effect.

The other possibility is ("hope for the best&quot :
"Sanders revolution is real. He can win the nomination"

We shall see.

Tarc

(10,476 posts)

8. For Sanders, it really doesn't matter

Reply to MaynardGeeKrebs (Original post)

Mon Feb 1, 2016, 03:53 PM

Feb 2016

Between NH and Vermont next month, his chances at winning any state is pretty remote.

KingCharlemagne

(7,908 posts)

11. Cue "Casablanca": We'll always have South Carolina - nt

Reply to Tarc (Reply #8)

Mon Feb 1, 2016, 03:59 PM

Feb 2016

JPnoodleman

(454 posts)

9. the divisions between bases is too great,

Reply to MaynardGeeKrebs (Original post)

Mon Feb 1, 2016, 03:54 PM

Feb 2016

Among a lot of the Sanders devoted there is zero trust for Hillary. The issue is going to be if Hillary and the MSM knock Bernie out of the race, his supporters will likely not fall in line for the General election.

If Hillary wins the primary she may lose the White House. If she loses the Primary we might win with Sanders.

alcibiades_mystery

(36,437 posts)

10. What if Hillary or Bernie win by a large margin?

Reply to MaynardGeeKrebs (Original post)

Mon Feb 1, 2016, 03:55 PM

Feb 2016

JPnoodleman

(454 posts)

13. If large margins...

Reply to alcibiades_mystery (Reply #10)

Mon Feb 1, 2016, 04:12 PM

Feb 2016

If Hillary wins by a large margin I look at it as either mostly good or partially bad. The major question is could she heal the divide between herself and Sanders base. EVEN with a victory in the primary it would be a costly and now very personal battle.

If Sanders wins, Well.... 2008 on repeat.

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)

14. And it would ALL be true! :-D

Reply to MaynardGeeKrebs (Original post)

Mon Feb 1, 2016, 04:16 PM

Feb 2016

The math and the national polls are NOT in Bernie's favor. Sorry, that's just the way it is.

He would have to have a BLOWOUT win in order to change what's about to happen ... and that's not at all likely to happen. Again, sorry ... them's the breaks.

But, I do think it would be in poor form for "MSM" to say something as crass as "Bernie should drop out".

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