2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHere's Why Winning Iowa Could Break The Election Wide Open For Bernie Sanders
(snip)
The assumption fueling that fire is that Obama was able to win over the black vote because, put simply, he was black. If that's the case, the uber-white Vermonter Bernie Sanders isn't a serious threat to that firewall, and the Clinton camp can bank on a South Carolina victory no matter what happens in Iowa or New Hampshire.
But that strategy may rest on a misreading of why the black vote shifted so rapidly to Obama the last time around. Indeed, Obama was just as black in October, when black voters were backing Clinton, as he was in January, when the vote shifted his way.
What changed? His viability.
After Obama's resounding victory in Iowa, the perception of him changed. All of a sudden, black voters saw that Obama could actually win.
The connection between Obama and the black vote is obviously a unique one, but the phenomenon is universal: Voters prefer to back a winner, and candidates appear more attractive the more likely they are to win. The Iowa caucus may only be a venue for some 250,000 or so Iowans -- a minuscule fraction of the national voting population -- but the decisions those caucus-goers make can send a signal that reverberates far beyond the state.
(snip)
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/iowa-bernie-sanders_us_56aa3483e4b0d82286d51290
This article is well worth reading to get the full perspective.
H2O Man
(73,559 posts)Thank you for this.
bvar22
(39,909 posts)I'm hoping that a Sanders WIN in Iowa will be the snowball that starts the avalanche.
John Poet
(2,510 posts)roguevalley
(40,656 posts)her you're rewarding 25 years of smears.
cui bono
(19,926 posts)Unless they mean smears coming from her.
.
Uncle Joe
(58,366 posts)17 years of smears when the people chose then Senator Obama as their new Democratic Nominee and eventual two term President?
rosesaylavee
(12,126 posts)That made me laugh out loud! So tense today -- I keep looking at this site -- which is not helping my tenseness at all. So I needed that laugh!
Uncle Joe
(58,366 posts)rosesaylavee
(12,126 posts)If Sanders gets in it would make all that effort so much easier these next several years -- oh, and we get to survive as a species, which would be nice too -- not that I am putting too much pressure on tonight's results. I need to settle down. And laugh more.
A Simple Game
(9,214 posts)were smearing Hillary themselves. Quite a few of them on DU, I got banned from the Hillary group for warning them about the turncoats among them. A ban by the way that I wear like a badge.
Gene Debs
(582 posts)Ferd Berfel
(3,687 posts)move on.
hifiguy
(33,688 posts)but it never sinks through the bubble. That it's true matters not to those who live within.
SammyWinstonJack
(44,130 posts)hifiguy
(33,688 posts)fucking monumentally stupid it isn't even worth rebutting.
senz
(11,945 posts)Kept talking about how everybody beats up on her. Polling probably shows it works with her followers.
Poor little thing, so picked on. Don't forget, life is hard for Hillary Clinton.
floriduck
(2,262 posts)Stuckinthebush
(10,845 posts)A close win that carries momentum. Enough momentum to flip the massive Clinton edge in super Tuesday states and to make her pledged super delegates change their minds.
It's possible if not probable.
Ferd Berfel
(3,687 posts)Bernie Surging in the Primary Polls of Hillary's 'Safe Bet' State of South Carolina
The point is not to argue that Sanders will win South Carolina, but that there is a surge happening in his direction right now.
WillyT
(72,631 posts)treestar
(82,383 posts)Pretty insulting to the voters in the other states - oversimplified to say they will switch because some other state gave Bernie some number of delegates.
Gore1FL
(21,132 posts)Obama in 20087 was covered in the story
Kerry was not expected to Win IA in 2004. Dean was. No one expect Edwards either.
Clinton came from nowhere in 1992. His second place finish in NH changed people's votes as just as the article described.
Though not successful, Hart made a serious challenge after landing 2nd in IA in 1984. That charged New England for him. He wasn't going to win there before the IA victory.
IA made Jimmy Carter for the same reasons.
If the past is insulting to the voters of other states, they certainly don't seem too bothered based on the past 4 decades.
passiveporcupine
(8,175 posts)the more you will follow the safe/known path. That's been proven. Conservatives are uncomfortable with change. But if there is enough support for it, they will eventually change because they know it's the right thing to do. Look at gay rights, women's rights, civil rights. It takes a long time to get change to happen because it has to build momentum first. This current revolution has been building for sometime. We now have the surge, we just need to show it in the numbers for more conservatives to feel safe in joining us.
Voters prefer to back a winner, and candidates appear more attractive the more likely they are to win.
The same dynamics...ability to win. Once that hits home it hits big.
Gore1FL
(21,132 posts)Once it does, the barrier evaporates in a puff of logic.
hifiguy
(33,688 posts)right up the moment when she suddenly sinks, just like '08 and the Titanic.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)Did DU get it wrong in 2008 or are they getting it wrong today?
Erich Bloodaxe BSN
(14,733 posts)Some did, some didn't. Just as some voted for Clinton because she was a woman, and some didn't.
Some folks run off identity politics, some don't.