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Uncle Joe

(58,366 posts)
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 04:05 PM Feb 2016

Here's Why Winning Iowa Could Break The Election Wide Open For Bernie Sanders



(snip)

The assumption fueling that fire is that Obama was able to win over the black vote because, put simply, he was black. If that's the case, the uber-white Vermonter Bernie Sanders isn't a serious threat to that firewall, and the Clinton camp can bank on a South Carolina victory no matter what happens in Iowa or New Hampshire.

But that strategy may rest on a misreading of why the black vote shifted so rapidly to Obama the last time around. Indeed, Obama was just as black in October, when black voters were backing Clinton, as he was in January, when the vote shifted his way.

What changed? His viability.

After Obama's resounding victory in Iowa, the perception of him changed. All of a sudden, black voters saw that Obama could actually win.

The connection between Obama and the black vote is obviously a unique one, but the phenomenon is universal: Voters prefer to back a winner, and candidates appear more attractive the more likely they are to win. The Iowa caucus may only be a venue for some 250,000 or so Iowans -- a minuscule fraction of the national voting population -- but the decisions those caucus-goers make can send a signal that reverberates far beyond the state.


(snip)


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/iowa-bernie-sanders_us_56aa3483e4b0d82286d51290




This article is well worth reading to get the full perspective.
29 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Here's Why Winning Iowa Could Break The Election Wide Open For Bernie Sanders (Original Post) Uncle Joe Feb 2016 OP
Recommended. H2O Man Feb 2016 #1
I agree. bvar22 Feb 2016 #2
K & R John Poet Feb 2016 #3
there's a greatest page thing from the HRC group that says if you don't vote for roguevalley Feb 2016 #4
Well that's just idiotic. cui bono Feb 2016 #5
Using that logic I suppose it was only Uncle Joe Feb 2016 #6
I have always like you. rosesaylavee Feb 2016 #7
The feeling is mutual, rosesaylavee. Uncle Joe Feb 2016 #8
All my spare is pretty much spent on climate change issues rosesaylavee Feb 2016 #9
You're probably right except for the ones that were supporting President Obama and A Simple Game Feb 2016 #17
Oh, and you want President Trump, too. Gene Debs Feb 2016 #10
Bernie Beats Trump - HIllary looses to Trump Ferd Berfel Feb 2016 #12
You can yell that from the mountaintops hifiguy Feb 2016 #24
What a pant load. SammyWinstonJack Feb 2016 #21
That contention is so goddam hifiguy Feb 2016 #25
She played that up heavily in the CNN forum senz Feb 2016 #28
K&R. Well done. nm floriduck Feb 2016 #11
That's the inside straight Sanders is banking on Stuckinthebush Feb 2016 #13
Yeah but then, also, too.... Ferd Berfel Feb 2016 #14
HUGE K & R !!! - Thank You !!! WillyT Feb 2016 #15
Wishful thinking treestar Feb 2016 #16
Except that it happens every primary season. Gore1FL Feb 2016 #19
Not an insult. Just human nature. And the more conservative you are passiveporcupine Feb 2016 #22
K&R Paka Feb 2016 #18
Especially when the only argument form the other side is that it can't happen. Gore1FL Feb 2016 #20
She will be inevitable hifiguy Feb 2016 #23
LOL ... So now Black voters DIDN'T vote for Candidate Obama because he is Black? ... 1StrongBlackMan Feb 2016 #26
I'm guessing it's a mix. Erich Bloodaxe BSN Feb 2016 #27
K & R AzDar Feb 2016 #29

roguevalley

(40,656 posts)
4. there's a greatest page thing from the HRC group that says if you don't vote for
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 04:20 PM
Feb 2016

her you're rewarding 25 years of smears.

Uncle Joe

(58,366 posts)
6. Using that logic I suppose it was only
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 04:42 PM
Feb 2016

17 years of smears when the people chose then Senator Obama as their new Democratic Nominee and eventual two term President?

rosesaylavee

(12,126 posts)
7. I have always like you.
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 04:47 PM
Feb 2016

That made me laugh out loud! So tense today -- I keep looking at this site -- which is not helping my tenseness at all. So I needed that laugh!

rosesaylavee

(12,126 posts)
9. All my spare is pretty much spent on climate change issues
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 05:22 PM
Feb 2016

If Sanders gets in it would make all that effort so much easier these next several years -- oh, and we get to survive as a species, which would be nice too -- not that I am putting too much pressure on tonight's results. I need to settle down. And laugh more.

A Simple Game

(9,214 posts)
17. You're probably right except for the ones that were supporting President Obama and
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 06:39 PM
Feb 2016

were smearing Hillary themselves. Quite a few of them on DU, I got banned from the Hillary group for warning them about the turncoats among them. A ban by the way that I wear like a badge.

 

hifiguy

(33,688 posts)
24. You can yell that from the mountaintops
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 07:37 PM
Feb 2016

but it never sinks through the bubble. That it's true matters not to those who live within.

 

senz

(11,945 posts)
28. She played that up heavily in the CNN forum
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 08:20 PM
Feb 2016

Kept talking about how everybody beats up on her. Polling probably shows it works with her followers.

Poor little thing, so picked on. Don't forget, life is hard for Hillary Clinton.

Stuckinthebush

(10,845 posts)
13. That's the inside straight Sanders is banking on
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 06:09 PM
Feb 2016

A close win that carries momentum. Enough momentum to flip the massive Clinton edge in super Tuesday states and to make her pledged super delegates change their minds.

It's possible if not probable.

Ferd Berfel

(3,687 posts)
14. Yeah but then, also, too....
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 06:10 PM
Feb 2016
http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/bernie-surging-primary-polls-hillarys-safe-bet-state-south-carolina#.Vqk3AlbDfnc.facebook

Bernie Surging in the Primary Polls of Hillary's 'Safe Bet' State of South Carolina


The point is not to argue that Sanders will win South Carolina, but that there is a surge happening in his direction right now.

treestar

(82,383 posts)
16. Wishful thinking
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 06:12 PM
Feb 2016

Pretty insulting to the voters in the other states - oversimplified to say they will switch because some other state gave Bernie some number of delegates.

Gore1FL

(21,132 posts)
19. Except that it happens every primary season.
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 06:54 PM
Feb 2016

Obama in 20087 was covered in the story
Kerry was not expected to Win IA in 2004. Dean was. No one expect Edwards either.
Clinton came from nowhere in 1992. His second place finish in NH changed people's votes as just as the article described.
Though not successful, Hart made a serious challenge after landing 2nd in IA in 1984. That charged New England for him. He wasn't going to win there before the IA victory.
IA made Jimmy Carter for the same reasons.


If the past is insulting to the voters of other states, they certainly don't seem too bothered based on the past 4 decades.


passiveporcupine

(8,175 posts)
22. Not an insult. Just human nature. And the more conservative you are
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 07:34 PM
Feb 2016

the more you will follow the safe/known path. That's been proven. Conservatives are uncomfortable with change. But if there is enough support for it, they will eventually change because they know it's the right thing to do. Look at gay rights, women's rights, civil rights. It takes a long time to get change to happen because it has to build momentum first. This current revolution has been building for sometime. We now have the surge, we just need to show it in the numbers for more conservatives to feel safe in joining us.

Voters prefer to back a winner, and candidates appear more attractive the more likely they are to win.



Gore1FL

(21,132 posts)
20. Especially when the only argument form the other side is that it can't happen.
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 06:55 PM
Feb 2016

Once it does, the barrier evaporates in a puff of logic.

 

hifiguy

(33,688 posts)
23. She will be inevitable
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 07:36 PM
Feb 2016

right up the moment when she suddenly sinks, just like '08 and the Titanic.

 

1StrongBlackMan

(31,849 posts)
26. LOL ... So now Black voters DIDN'T vote for Candidate Obama because he is Black? ...
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 07:52 PM
Feb 2016

Did DU get it wrong in 2008 or are they getting it wrong today?

Erich Bloodaxe BSN

(14,733 posts)
27. I'm guessing it's a mix.
Mon Feb 1, 2016, 08:03 PM
Feb 2016

Some did, some didn't. Just as some voted for Clinton because she was a woman, and some didn't.

Some folks run off identity politics, some don't.

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