2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBoehner’s once bitten, twice shy
Posted with permission.
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal/2012_01/boehners_once_bitten_twice_shy034741.php
Boehners once bitten, twice shy
By Steve Benen
My prediction about the failure of a year-long payroll tax-cut deal isnt looking so good. On the contrary, its looking increasingly likely that an agreement should come together well ahead of the deadline.
The problem, as I saw it, was that House Republicans bit the bullet in December after badly miscalculating. They accepted a two-month deal, but they would, I argued, make excessive demands in the next round, dooming any possible extension. Since GOP members tend to oppose the tax-cut policy anyway, they wouldnt have much of an incentive to be cooperative.
To be sure, far-right members will continue to push an extremist wish list, but unlike last time, House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) is reportedly prepared to navigate around rebellious Tea Party-aligned lawmakers to get a deal.
His instincts will be not to be so reliant on House Republican freshmen, the aide added, referring to the 85 first-term congressmen.
From the perspective of House GOP leaders, Boehner took orders from the right-wing contingency in December, and the result was a fiasco in which Republicans were pushing for a middle-class tax increase a few days before Christmas. The Speaker could pursue a replay, but he seems to realize theres not much of an upside for his party. Why suffer through the same easily-avoided debacle twice?
The deadline for an extension is Feb. 29, but Boehner is apparently so eager to get this over with, the Reuters report indicated hed like to wrap up a deal over the next two weeks so President Obama cant use it against Republicans in the State of the Union address.
This is not to say Republicans will go along with a surtax on millionaires and billionaires as part of a compromise that wouldnt have the votes to pass either chamber, no matter how popular the idea is with the American mainstream but just about any other funding mechanism would likely get the Speakers approval.
Nothing is ever easy in this Congress, and there will be plenty of opportunities for failure, but the odds of eventual success appear to be improving.
alfredo
(60,077 posts)liberal N proud
(60,347 posts)Proud Liberal Dem
(24,446 posts)The Tea Party wing is NOT going to be happy about this and will make damned sure to let Boehner. Of course, it might, ironically, be the only thing that makes Boehner and Obama/Dems *allies* for once. OTOH it could be the final nail in the coffin (hopefully) for the GOP in November if Boehner ultimately caves, which IMHO is a far more likely prospect. It will undoubtedly be interesting to see how this plays out.