2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNPR: Clinton edges Sanders
http://www.npr.org/2016/02/02/465193561/cruz-wins-iowa-republican-caucus-clinton-sanders-still-too-close-to-callThere are currently 2.28 outstanding, not enough for Sanders to make up the difference. There is no mechanism for a recount.
SunSeeker
(51,691 posts)BlueMTexpat
(15,373 posts)JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)All we heard was "wait until debates, Bernie will destroy Hillary!". NOPE. then it was "wait until Iowa and the Bernie revolution takes over!". NOPE.
I'll stick with my prediction: Hillary wins 45 states, Bernie wins 5.
Matariki
(18,775 posts)I guess I would be too. But then my candidate was never the front runner or leading by huge margins at one point.
pnwmom
(108,994 posts)while her greatest strength has been with minority voters.
And she lost Iowa last time.
People forget how close she was to Obama at the end -- less than 1/2 of a percentage point between them.
So she's starting off better now than she did then -- and she'll be very strong in the southern states. She's in good shape.
Matariki
(18,775 posts)we'll see soon enough.
tecelote
(5,122 posts)He was a no name Senator who got a fraction of the air time up until now.
Because of his strong showing, and his upcoming win in NH, he will start to get the airtime he deserves.
The more people hear him speak, the more he surges.
Bernie won the national stage and it will carry him to the Whitehouse.
WhaTHellsgoingonhere
(5,252 posts)That doesn't feel like a tie, anymore.
WhaTHellsgoingonhere
(5,252 posts)pnwmom
(108,994 posts)stonecutter357
(12,697 posts)w4rma
(31,700 posts)pnwmom
(108,994 posts)Delegate counts in Iowa are not strictly connected to voter counts. Depending on what precinct you vote in and who else is voting there, your vote counts more -- or less -- than someone else's.
For example, in a small county with only 2 delegates, one candidate with 25% of the voters would get 1 delegate. The other candidate with 75% of the voters would get the other delegate. So a candidate with 1 delegate could have had anywhere from 25 - 75% of the voters.
So you can't even guess how many voters are associated with the number of delegates that have been assigned. It varies from precinct to precinct.
This is their nutty system. (I can say that -- my state has a similarly nutty caucus system.) What's crazy is that we let this small, caucus state be one of the key bellwethers in the primary.
Here are the official rules for delegate assignment.
http://iowademocrats.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/IDP-Caucus-Math-One-Pager.pdf
Response to pnwmom (Original post)
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