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DemocratSinceBirth

(99,711 posts)
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 10:03 AM Feb 2016

I don't want to say I told you so.

Made you look...


I told you Donald Trump's support is a mile wide an an inch deep and I questioned if the throngs of people who told pollsters they would caucus for him actually would.

He is done, finished, kaput...

I watched Rubio last night with a bit of trepidation. He is slick!!! I believe we can beat any of the presumptive Republican presidential nominees but he would be the most difficult.

40 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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I don't want to say I told you so. (Original Post) DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2016 OP
I said the same thing. cali Feb 2016 #1
What was your reasoning? I confess to having no earthly idea how things will shake out KittyWampus Feb 2016 #32
Ack, are we actually having a civil exchange? Okay. cali Feb 2016 #36
Thanks for insight. I suspect we'd get along swimmingly in real life. KittyWampus Feb 2016 #39
So do I. I like your grit. cali Feb 2016 #40
Yes, Rubio is the toughest. I was surprised by Trump's poor showing, though. Good call on that. DanTex Feb 2016 #2
I don't want to get too far ahead of myself but I am tempted to call N.H. for Rubio./nt DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2016 #18
One interesting datapoint... DanTex Feb 2016 #19
Should we call N.H. for Rubio or is it premature? DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2016 #21
No idea, honestly. Trump is still well ahead there in both polls and prediction markets. DanTex Feb 2016 #22
He's got all the insider buzz too. Most of what I am reading considers Trump and Cruz a sideshow Lucinda Feb 2016 #3
He is killing it at predictwise. DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2016 #6
Holy shit that flip between Trump and Rubio. joshcryer Feb 2016 #7
Prediction markets can be volatile... DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2016 #15
Wow. That spike for yesterday is crazy! Lucinda Feb 2016 #8
That's a ridiculous analysis. Just ask the previous two winners of the Iowa GOP totodeinhere Feb 2016 #4
That's actually a non-sequitur DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2016 #13
You don't write candidates off based on the results of one caucus. totodeinhere Feb 2016 #16
His air of invincibility has been pierced. DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2016 #17
Wonder if Trump will drop out now that he lost. livetohike Feb 2016 #5
I'll think they will spin it into a cage match between Trump and Cruz. Lucinda Feb 2016 #10
We'll see what New Hampshire brings! I'm not even going to watch the news until then. livetohike Feb 2016 #24
Thank you! It's good to feel well enough to pop into DU again. Lucinda Feb 2016 #26
Things could be better, but I am here and the sun is shining. Glad you are feeling better Lucinda! livetohike Feb 2016 #30
You are very kind....I hope to see better days ahead for both of us. Lucinda Feb 2016 #33
I agree. Rubio harder to beat, but Cruz is scary. morningfog Feb 2016 #9
Cruz totally creeps me out. As does Trump. Lucinda Feb 2016 #11
Maybe Trump will make an independent run. NurseJackie Feb 2016 #12
Trump got the second most Iowa votes ever. You know who got more? Renew Deal Feb 2016 #14
Trump's raison d'etre is winning and he got his ass handed to him. DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2016 #20
I do. NurseJackie Feb 2016 #23
Rubio is going to be the nominee alcibiades_mystery Feb 2016 #25
Bush was his mentor. Rubio ruined him. DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2016 #27
I agree that Rubio would be toughest book_worm Feb 2016 #28
K&R! stonecutter357 Feb 2016 #29
Even if I were a Republican, Rubio would make my skin crawl Armstead Feb 2016 #31
Fun to read the different takes on the GOP collection. CrispyQ Feb 2016 #35
With Rubio my impression is a college goody-goody nerd trying to be The Terminator Armstead Feb 2016 #37
I think it will be Rubio. CrispyQ Feb 2016 #34
I called the GOP race PERFECTLY. wildeyed Feb 2016 #38
 

KittyWampus

(55,894 posts)
32. What was your reasoning? I confess to having no earthly idea how things will shake out
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 12:20 PM
Feb 2016

on the Republican side. None. No insight. I can't put myself in their mindset.

 

cali

(114,904 posts)
36. Ack, are we actually having a civil exchange? Okay.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 12:28 PM
Feb 2016

Rubio has a plan- 3, 2, 1. Come in 3rd in Iowa, 2nd in New Hampshire and 1st in South Carolina. As more republicans dropout, I think he'll accrue a substantial chunk of that vote. The republican establishment is solidly behind him. They despise both Cruz and trump. His donations and SuperPacs will start raking it in.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/marco-rubio-iowa-caucuses-218596

 

KittyWampus

(55,894 posts)
39. Thanks for insight. I suspect we'd get along swimmingly in real life.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 01:06 PM
Feb 2016

Online here is what I consider bickering with people I mostly agree with.

DanTex

(20,709 posts)
19. One interesting datapoint...
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 10:42 AM
Feb 2016

Right after the Iowa Caucus results, the betting odds for Trump to win the nomination tanked, and Rubio shot up.

Really dramatic movement, basically they switched places, a 25% swing (or 50% swing total, 25% each in opposite directions) over the course of an hour or so.



http://predictwise.com/

DanTex

(20,709 posts)
22. No idea, honestly. Trump is still well ahead there in both polls and prediction markets.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 10:49 AM
Feb 2016

But the Iowa shocker can change that. We'll have to see how the results of Iowa change the polling picture there.

Lucinda

(31,170 posts)
3. He's got all the insider buzz too. Most of what I am reading considers Trump and Cruz a sideshow
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 10:07 AM
Feb 2016

which will knock each other off...

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,711 posts)
6. He is killing it at predictwise.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 10:13 AM
Feb 2016

Look at his graph:

http://predictwise.com/

I lived most of my life in FL. That's why I thought it was so important to stop him when he ran for the senate in 2010. I knew he would become a national figure.

Trump will go after him and fail because in doing so it will look obvious and desperate.





DemocratSinceBirth

(99,711 posts)
15. Prediction markets can be volatile...
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 10:27 AM
Feb 2016

I am a huge sports fan.

You can see wild swings during a seven game series.

Lucinda

(31,170 posts)
8. Wow. That spike for yesterday is crazy!
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 10:16 AM
Feb 2016

I havent paid him enough attention, I'm going to have to dig deeper and figure out what he's about.

totodeinhere

(13,059 posts)
4. That's a ridiculous analysis. Just ask the previous two winners of the Iowa GOP
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 10:08 AM
Feb 2016

caucuses, Presidents Santorum and Huckabee. Oh wait.

If he can win in New Hampshire in eight days Trump is back on track.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,711 posts)
13. That's actually a non-sequitur
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 10:22 AM
Feb 2016
That's a ridiculous analysis. Just ask the previous two winners of the Iowa GOP
caucuses, Presidents Santorum and Huckabee. Oh wait.



That's actually a non-sequitur. Cruz won IA. I am not saying Cruz will be the nominee. I am saying Trump won't be.

BTW, Trump is sinking like a stone at the predictions/gaming markets:



http://predictwise.com/


If Trump was a stock he literally lost half of his value, over night !


He is done, finished, kaput...


His whole brand is built on winning. He famously said "we will do so much winning that we will get bored of winning"

totodeinhere

(13,059 posts)
16. You don't write candidates off based on the results of one caucus.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 10:29 AM
Feb 2016

This was certainly a blow to Trump, but if he can win New Hampshire then that sets him up for a landslide win in South Carolina and it's off to the races.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,711 posts)
17. His air of invincibility has been pierced.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 10:31 AM
Feb 2016

It's not that he lost, anybody can lose, it's that his whole being is predicated on being a winner, or more accurately saying he's a winner.

livetohike

(22,163 posts)
5. Wonder if Trump will drop out now that he lost.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 10:08 AM
Feb 2016

He may stay in and only talk about what losers the Iowa voters are. Hopefully, the media will stop their Trump 24/7 coverage now.

Lucinda

(31,170 posts)
10. I'll think they will spin it into a cage match between Trump and Cruz.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 10:20 AM
Feb 2016

I think it will depend on trumps ego and if he wants to play. Didn't see his speech last night, but heard he was fairly gracious. It's all surreal. I was actually rooting for a Republican - granted it was for any Rep to knock him down a bit yesterday.... but still!

livetohike

(22,163 posts)
24. We'll see what New Hampshire brings! I'm not even going to watch the news until then.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 12:08 PM
Feb 2016
So good to see you around Lucinda.

Lucinda

(31,170 posts)
26. Thank you! It's good to feel well enough to pop into DU again.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 12:15 PM
Feb 2016

I just couldn't miss Iowa. I'm going to avoid the news and stay away from the pre-NH warfare here, then come back for the show if I can.

Hope all is well in livetohike land!

livetohike

(22,163 posts)
30. Things could be better, but I am here and the sun is shining. Glad you are feeling better Lucinda!
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 12:17 PM
Feb 2016

You have been missed by many

 

morningfog

(18,115 posts)
9. I agree. Rubio harder to beat, but Cruz is scary.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 10:17 AM
Feb 2016

As in, I would prefer a harder fight with Rubio than an easy fight with Cruz having a platform for his hate. It does its own damage.

Lucinda

(31,170 posts)
11. Cruz totally creeps me out. As does Trump.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 10:21 AM
Feb 2016

I don't usually have reactions like that to people I haven't met.

Renew Deal

(81,871 posts)
14. Trump got the second most Iowa votes ever. You know who got more?
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 10:22 AM
Feb 2016

Cruz. So I don't think you're really right.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,711 posts)
20. Trump's raison d'etre is winning and he got his ass handed to him.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 10:46 AM
Feb 2016

If he was a stock he would be Enron circa 2001:

 

alcibiades_mystery

(36,437 posts)
25. Rubio is going to be the nominee
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 12:09 PM
Feb 2016

People despise Ted Cruz.

You could see the Bushies were Rubio people when Nicole Wallace was talking him up yesterday.

He's the guy.

 

Armstead

(47,803 posts)
31. Even if I were a Republican, Rubio would make my skin crawl
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 12:19 PM
Feb 2016

Such a vacuous, sanctimonious, robotic little pile of programmed hate and cliches.

Ugggghhhhh...Next to him Cruze actually seems almost like a human being. (By comparison, only, of course)

CrispyQ

(36,509 posts)
35. Fun to read the different takes on the GOP collection.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 12:25 PM
Feb 2016


My take, below, is that Rubio is not as bad as Cruz, but I guess when you're comparing ghouls vs zombies,

CrispyQ

(36,509 posts)
34. I think it will be Rubio.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 12:24 PM
Feb 2016

Cruz has a really odd face with a weird nose. He looks kind of like The Joker. Up against Rubio, Cruz won't be as appealing. Rubio looks like a well mannered, young, Christian white man - just what the country needs, in their opinion.

wildeyed

(11,243 posts)
38. I called the GOP race PERFECTLY.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 12:44 PM
Feb 2016

Cruz is smarter than he looks and had a great ground game. I knew he would beat Trump. Rubio hits the sweet spot for many conservative but not completely batshit crazy voters. He is their best GE prospect. Trump's voters are all talk, his ground game blows and it showed.

I kinda called the Dem race too. The last two polls I saw, one was +3 Clinton, one was +3 Sanders. There could have been an upset either way, with Sanders coming on hard with new voters or Hillary's deep party support on the ground. But the polls themselves, I thought, well they cancel each other out, and both are inside the margin of error, so REALLY close race. And it was.

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