2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumI don't want to say I told you so.
Made you look...
I told you Donald Trump's support is a mile wide an an inch deep and I questioned if the throngs of people who told pollsters they would caucus for him actually would.
He is done, finished, kaput...
I watched Rubio last night with a bit of trepidation. He is slick!!! I believe we can beat any of the presumptive Republican presidential nominees but he would be the most difficult.
cali
(114,904 posts)Though I did predict Rubio would edge him out.
KittyWampus
(55,894 posts)on the Republican side. None. No insight. I can't put myself in their mindset.
cali
(114,904 posts)Rubio has a plan- 3, 2, 1. Come in 3rd in Iowa, 2nd in New Hampshire and 1st in South Carolina. As more republicans dropout, I think he'll accrue a substantial chunk of that vote. The republican establishment is solidly behind him. They despise both Cruz and trump. His donations and SuperPacs will start raking it in.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/marco-rubio-iowa-caucuses-218596
KittyWampus
(55,894 posts)Online here is what I consider bickering with people I mostly agree with.
cali
(114,904 posts)DanTex
(20,709 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)DanTex
(20,709 posts)Right after the Iowa Caucus results, the betting odds for Trump to win the nomination tanked, and Rubio shot up.
Really dramatic movement, basically they switched places, a 25% swing (or 50% swing total, 25% each in opposite directions) over the course of an hour or so.
http://predictwise.com/
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)DanTex
(20,709 posts)But the Iowa shocker can change that. We'll have to see how the results of Iowa change the polling picture there.
Lucinda
(31,170 posts)which will knock each other off...
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)Look at his graph:
http://predictwise.com/
I lived most of my life in FL. That's why I thought it was so important to stop him when he ran for the senate in 2010. I knew he would become a national figure.
Trump will go after him and fail because in doing so it will look obvious and desperate.
joshcryer
(62,276 posts)Wow.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)I am a huge sports fan.
You can see wild swings during a seven game series.
Lucinda
(31,170 posts)I havent paid him enough attention, I'm going to have to dig deeper and figure out what he's about.
totodeinhere
(13,059 posts)caucuses, Presidents Santorum and Huckabee. Oh wait.
If he can win in New Hampshire in eight days Trump is back on track.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)caucuses, Presidents Santorum and Huckabee. Oh wait.
That's actually a non-sequitur. Cruz won IA. I am not saying Cruz will be the nominee. I am saying Trump won't be.
BTW, Trump is sinking like a stone at the predictions/gaming markets:
http://predictwise.com/
If Trump was a stock he literally lost half of his value, over night !
He is done, finished, kaput...
His whole brand is built on winning. He famously said "we will do so much winning that we will get bored of winning"
totodeinhere
(13,059 posts)This was certainly a blow to Trump, but if he can win New Hampshire then that sets him up for a landslide win in South Carolina and it's off to the races.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)It's not that he lost, anybody can lose, it's that his whole being is predicated on being a winner, or more accurately saying he's a winner.
livetohike
(22,163 posts)He may stay in and only talk about what losers the Iowa voters are. Hopefully, the media will stop their Trump 24/7 coverage now.
Lucinda
(31,170 posts)I think it will depend on trumps ego and if he wants to play. Didn't see his speech last night, but heard he was fairly gracious. It's all surreal. I was actually rooting for a Republican - granted it was for any Rep to knock him down a bit yesterday.... but still!
livetohike
(22,163 posts)Lucinda
(31,170 posts)I just couldn't miss Iowa. I'm going to avoid the news and stay away from the pre-NH warfare here, then come back for the show if I can.
Hope all is well in livetohike land!
livetohike
(22,163 posts)You have been missed by many
Lucinda
(31,170 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)As in, I would prefer a harder fight with Rubio than an easy fight with Cruz having a platform for his hate. It does its own damage.
Lucinda
(31,170 posts)I don't usually have reactions like that to people I haven't met.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Renew Deal
(81,871 posts)Cruz. So I don't think you're really right.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)If he was a stock he would be Enron circa 2001:
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)People despise Ted Cruz.
You could see the Bushies were Rubio people when Nicole Wallace was talking him up yesterday.
He's the guy.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)That has to sting, even more than the Trump attacks.
book_worm
(15,951 posts)hoping that Cruz can get the nomination if it isn't Trump.
stonecutter357
(12,697 posts)Armstead
(47,803 posts)Such a vacuous, sanctimonious, robotic little pile of programmed hate and cliches.
Ugggghhhhh...Next to him Cruze actually seems almost like a human being. (By comparison, only, of course)
CrispyQ
(36,509 posts)My take, below, is that Rubio is not as bad as Cruz, but I guess when you're comparing ghouls vs zombies,
Armstead
(47,803 posts)CrispyQ
(36,509 posts)Cruz has a really odd face with a weird nose. He looks kind of like The Joker. Up against Rubio, Cruz won't be as appealing. Rubio looks like a well mannered, young, Christian white man - just what the country needs, in their opinion.
wildeyed
(11,243 posts)Cruz is smarter than he looks and had a great ground game. I knew he would beat Trump. Rubio hits the sweet spot for many conservative but not completely batshit crazy voters. He is their best GE prospect. Trump's voters are all talk, his ground game blows and it showed.
I kinda called the Dem race too. The last two polls I saw, one was +3 Clinton, one was +3 Sanders. There could have been an upset either way, with Sanders coming on hard with new voters or Hillary's deep party support on the ground. But the polls themselves, I thought, well they cancel each other out, and both are inside the margin of error, so REALLY close race. And it was.