2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumO'Malley dropping out will affect the remaining
caucuses and primaries. Not a lot, but somewhat. Odds are that about 2/3 of his supporters will go to Bernie. It may not be a big factor in upcoming primary events, but could affect results in states that are close.
It's something to consider for everyone following all of this extremely closely. For the rest of us, it may not be that important. It's time now to start following the state-by-state national convention delegate count. That's where the real story is.
enid602
(8,652 posts)Still, it's not like 2008, when Edwards, Biden and Richardson dropped out. Together, they comprised 21% of the polling.
MineralMan
(146,329 posts)2008 was unique, and the conditions in 2016 are very, very different, as you say.
malthaussen
(17,216 posts)... that despite Mr O'Malley's unfortunate showing, he probably did decide the race. It is unlikely that his supporters will be split exactly 50/50 for the other two candidates. Perhaps they should toss coins for them.
-- Mal
MineralMan
(146,329 posts)There were exactly three people in the O'Malley group. They split 2 for Bernie and 1 for Clinton. I suspect that will be roughly typical in other places.
It will have an impact, but how much of an impact will vary, depending on how closely a state's Democrats are divided.
ChisolmTrailDem
(9,463 posts)MineralMan
(146,329 posts)what effect it will have, then.
ChisolmTrailDem
(9,463 posts)...move on to other things. Perhaps you'll catch up eventually and post something that doesn't make it seem like you think we don't know what's going on when we actually do know and don't need you to tell us.
Renew Deal
(81,871 posts)MineralMan
(146,329 posts)Also, in some states, O'Malley showed higher polling results. In those states, the effect could be larger.
It probably won't affect the actual outcome, nationally, but will be an interesting thing to follow, I think.
Renew Deal
(81,871 posts)MineralMan
(146,329 posts)close it turned out. Had O'Malley been able to form viable groups at most caucuses, the result would have been different, and Clinton would probably have an actual lead. Instead, the results are essentially tied.
In other states where voters are closely divided, it could be a real factor, too. We'll see.
PyaarRevolution
(814 posts)That the results of this race will cause you to reconsider Bernie. I like you and you say you've done many campaigns.
MineralMan
(146,329 posts)That's what I always do. Primary campaigns are more of a hobby for me. I observe them. I'll be caucusing for Hillary in Minnesota. My wife will caucus for Bernie. Net effect - 0.
The primaries will take care of themselves.
Xyzse
(8,217 posts)I like Hillary as well and can live with her as the Democratic candidate, but at the moment, with O'Malley dropping out... Which makes me sad by the way, my current first choice is Bernie.
MineralMan
(146,329 posts)the two leaders. I don't think he had a real chance at any point. Clinton and Sanders are just too popular with voters. It's too bad. O'Malley would also have made a good choice as a nominee. But, so it goes.
Xyzse
(8,217 posts)He was also my Governor.
So, I was going with MD pride right there.
askew
(1,464 posts)Everywhere and not just with Latino audiences will win O'Malley's supporters over. Time and time again I've talked to people who were so moved by O'Malley's insistence on always talking about immigration reform, standing up for refugees and pushing to end ICE raids. Both Hillary and Sanders have sucked on these issues so far and O'Malley had to prod both to move left on them. He led on these issues and at many events was the only candidate who talked about these issues.
Bernie needs to show that he cares about these issues. He spends 95% of every speech giving the same economic talking points & then throws in a couple of lines about social issues. He needs to talk more about social issues and show Dem voters that he cares about them and will make them a priority. Minority voters and older women vote on these issues and need to feel Bernie cares about them and aren't just afterthoughts.