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All Iowa Precincts Reporting (Original Post) JaneyVee Feb 2016 OP
Doesn't look like a tie to me either. NurseJackie Feb 2016 #1
Even my old tired eyes are seeing 28-21. :-) Alfresco Feb 2016 #11
28 includes supers which she had in her pocket. So she declared victory before the popular vote leveymg Feb 2016 #18
Yep. Anyone posting "28-21!" without clarification is basically trying to mislead. reformist2 Feb 2016 #20
... Alfresco Feb 2016 #29
Some of Hillary's supporters do tend to follow her lead. Broward Feb 2016 #41
Precinct 42 hasn't reported and Sanders won there. kristopher Feb 2016 #43
And obfuscate. Stick a fork in Hillary. She's done. - nt KingCharlemagne Feb 2016 #57
The Socialist is still in the running? RobertEarl Feb 2016 #22
Which is funny because even if they say they're voting for her Fearless Feb 2016 #32
Looks Like Clinton Won by a Touchdown and Extra Point Stallion Feb 2016 #23
Looks like she won by a fraction of one percent. 4 votes out of 1400. A pyrrhic victory, at best. leveymg Feb 2016 #28
Superdelegates vote at the convention, this is a dishonest Fearless Feb 2016 #33
MSNBC is showing 30-21 on their live tv graphics. :-) Alfresco Feb 2016 #38
Looks Like Clinton Added a Safety in Overtime Stallion Feb 2016 #63
Well it wasn't a blow out Autumn Feb 2016 #2
Nobody expected it would. JaneyVee Feb 2016 #5
Oh a few here expected it. nt Autumn Feb 2016 #8
Not the realistic ones. Agschmid Feb 2016 #12
Not everyone here on DU is realistic, and a couple posters here expected a huge Hillary win . Autumn Feb 2016 #17
On the Bernie side, yes. DanTex Feb 2016 #24
Comments on a blog saying that Bernie could come in first. It was close. Autumn Feb 2016 #42
Funny how the word "will" gets changed into "could", isn't it? DanTex Feb 2016 #44
Depends on the meaning of the word is doesn't it Dan. Autumn Feb 2016 #47
Well, they do have different meanings. That's why you decided to replace one with the other. DanTex Feb 2016 #48
Ya got me Dan, ya got me. You hillary supporters are some of the most graceful Autumn Feb 2016 #50
That final delegate count will almost certainly change MineralMan Feb 2016 #3
True, barely a blip on total delegate count. JaneyVee Feb 2016 #9
"Who" jham123 Feb 2016 #4
No one really "voted" welcome to land of crazy caucuses. Agschmid Feb 2016 #13
Still seems to be something going on to finalize numbers ... Jarqui Feb 2016 #6
Seems like a huge mess jkbRN Feb 2016 #25
About as close to a tie that has ever been seen in Iowa. Vinca Feb 2016 #7
Yes, because as you guys said ad nauseum, he didn't have "name recognition." MoonRiver Feb 2016 #14
You fail to mention that jkbRN Feb 2016 #30
We can interpret the facts in a number of ways, but Iowa was not an easy state for Hillary to win. MoonRiver Feb 2016 #46
The new goal post moving meme. Fearless Feb 2016 #34
He can in a very close second, a virtual tie in a satate where Autumn Feb 2016 #45
Apparently he lost because of some coin tosses. I wouldn't crow too much. LOL. Vinca Feb 2016 #59
That has been debunked about 20 times today. MoonRiver Feb 2016 #60
Actually, I don't. All I'm saying is Hillary's win was by a hair. Vinca Feb 2016 #62
Um, that is counting superdelegates rather disingenuously. JonLeibowitz Feb 2016 #10
Delegates can switch at the next level too 4dsc Feb 2016 #36
Only after the first ballot. jeff47 Feb 2016 #37
Superdelegates are not bound to a candidate. jeff47 Feb 2016 #15
It's a lie is what it is. Fearless Feb 2016 #35
Hear, hear! John Poet Feb 2016 #61
Really a solid night. NCTraveler Feb 2016 #16
She spent a pile of money and damaged her future primary results for a tie. jeff47 Feb 2016 #21
Nicely stated! jkbRN Feb 2016 #27
I don't think she damaged anything down the road. NCTraveler Feb 2016 #40
She pulled money and staff from super Tuesday states. jeff47 Feb 2016 #49
What Is the delegate count out of Iowa? NCTraveler Feb 2016 #52
At the moment, 22-21, 1 unawarded. jeff47 Feb 2016 #54
So, 20ish has brought you to the bold comment... NCTraveler Feb 2016 #56
Do you really think one delegate is going to decide the nomination? jeff47 Feb 2016 #58
49 total delegates? Neat trick... gcomeau Feb 2016 #19
Your numbers include Super Delegates hoosierlib Feb 2016 #26
This map is based on "Clinton trails, Clinton leads" ummmmm jkbRN Feb 2016 #31
MSNBC is showing 30-21 on their live tv graphics. :-) Alfresco Feb 2016 #39
Surprise... Kentonio Feb 2016 #55
excellent arguments for iowa to end their caucus 'system' rurallib Feb 2016 #51
Clinton the clear winner. Maybe by a hair, but still a win. I would concede though, Lil Missy Feb 2016 #53

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)
1. Doesn't look like a tie to me either.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 12:54 PM
Feb 2016

I'm glad to be among those who can discern the difference between the numbers "28" and "21".

Go, Hillary!

leveymg

(36,418 posts)
18. 28 includes supers which she had in her pocket. So she declared victory before the popular vote
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 01:06 PM
Feb 2016

was even determined.

The popular vote never mattered to her.

So she declared victory and hurried onto the jet without shaking hands, grateful to put the place and the people of Iowa behind her. A signature Hillary moment.

She lost far more political capital than she gained - another Pyrrhic war.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
43. Precinct 42 hasn't reported and Sanders won there.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 01:43 PM
Feb 2016

Thank you Botany
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141334345

Missing precinct scrambles to report Sanders won

Source: Des Moines Register

Votes from one precinct in Iowa were still missing Tuesday morning, and Democrats from that neighborhood were scrambling to find party officials so that they could report their tally: Bernie Sanders won by 2 delegates.

But the voters of Des Moines precinct No. 42 couldn’t find anyone at Iowa Democratic Party to take their phone calls. The party’s caucus hotline was no longer working. The party headquarters was locked.

“It’s important considering how close the race is. We need to be sure everyone has our accurate count,” said Jill Joseph, a rank-and-file Democratic voter who backed Sanders in at No. 42 Monday night.

snip

It quickly raised questions about whether Sanders had won the popular vote in Iowa. Sanders backers called for Iowa Democratic Party officials to release the raw vote totals.

Read more: http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/02/02/some-democratic-precinct-results-unaccounted/79682184/

 

RobertEarl

(13,685 posts)
22. The Socialist is still in the running?
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 01:09 PM
Feb 2016

Hillary didn't crush him? She must be rather mad at Iowa and she'll never go back.

Fearless

(18,421 posts)
32. Which is funny because even if they say they're voting for her
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 01:23 PM
Feb 2016

It's not actually true until the convention and pending the other races, those minds will change.

leveymg

(36,418 posts)
28. Looks like she won by a fraction of one percent. 4 votes out of 1400. A pyrrhic victory, at best.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 01:14 PM
Feb 2016

She lost more than she gained.

 

JaneyVee

(19,877 posts)
5. Nobody expected it would.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 12:58 PM
Feb 2016

Bernie was up in most polls the week of, then HRC went up +3 day before in DMR poll. Pretty much expected a tight one.

Agschmid

(28,749 posts)
12. Not the realistic ones.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 01:00 PM
Feb 2016

I've been working my ass off in NH and I fully expect Sanders to carry that state no problem, some of us are a bit more realistic than others.

Autumn

(45,120 posts)
42. Comments on a blog saying that Bernie could come in first. It was close.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 01:42 PM
Feb 2016

Not bad for a guy who was a year ago at 7% to Hills 68 % And your link doesn't change the fact that a few here expected Hillary to blow him out.

Autumn

(45,120 posts)
47. Depends on the meaning of the word is doesn't it Dan.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 01:46 PM
Feb 2016

I'm not going to veer off into your parsing game.

Autumn

(45,120 posts)
50. Ya got me Dan, ya got me. You hillary supporters are some of the most graceful
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 01:53 PM
Feb 2016

whiners, oops I mean winners of any candidate ever.

MineralMan

(146,329 posts)
3. That final delegate count will almost certainly change
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 12:56 PM
Feb 2016

by the end of the Iowa state convention. It's still a virtual tie. Clinton appears to have a slight edge, but that will really be erased by the time of the Democratic nominating convention. The numbers from Iowa are simply too small to make a difference in the outcome, and the difference between the two candidates' results are negligible in the mass of delegates to that convention.

Nothing wrong with ties, though. It certainly makes the rest of the primary season a little more interesting.

Hillary will still come out the winner, though. She will still be the Democratic nominee. I cannot see any other path to the convention, really.

Vinca

(50,303 posts)
7. About as close to a tie that has ever been seen in Iowa.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 12:58 PM
Feb 2016

Pretty impressive considering Bernie started out in single digits.

MoonRiver

(36,926 posts)
14. Yes, because as you guys said ad nauseum, he didn't have "name recognition."
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 01:01 PM
Feb 2016

Now he has vast name recognition in a state that was tailor made for him to win, and he lost.

jkbRN

(850 posts)
30. You fail to mention that
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 01:18 PM
Feb 2016

Clinton has had an extensive ground game there for over a year, as well as the support from her super pacs. So, your candidate should have done A LOT better--and should not be locked in an essential tie.

Take it as you may, but you should recognize all factors not just the ones that seemingly give a boost to your candidate of choice.

MoonRiver

(36,926 posts)
46. We can interpret the facts in a number of ways, but Iowa was not an easy state for Hillary to win.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 01:45 PM
Feb 2016

That's why they had an extensive ground game, and, fortunately, it paid off.

Autumn

(45,120 posts)
45. He can in a very close second, a virtual tie in a satate where
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 01:44 PM
Feb 2016

Former Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin just said Hillary has the best Iowa caucus ground operation he has ever seen.



Vinca

(50,303 posts)
62. Actually, I don't. All I'm saying is Hillary's win was by a hair.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 03:54 PM
Feb 2016

It wasn't a Cruz/Trump margin by any means. I only wish Democrats voted by paper ballots so there wouldn't be so many lingering questions. Coin tosses . . . good lord.

JonLeibowitz

(6,282 posts)
10. Um, that is counting superdelegates rather disingenuously.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 12:59 PM
Feb 2016

Superdelegates can switch allegiance any time they please.

 

4dsc

(5,787 posts)
36. Delegates can switch at the next level too
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 01:26 PM
Feb 2016

So it's not just super delegates who can switch but anyone can at the next level.

jeff47

(26,549 posts)
37. Only after the first ballot.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 01:28 PM
Feb 2016

At the convention, pledged delegates are required to vote for who they are pledged for, but only for the first vote.

If the first vote at the convention does not get anyone over 50%, pledged delegates can vote for whomever they want.

jeff47

(26,549 posts)
15. Superdelegates are not bound to a candidate.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 01:01 PM
Feb 2016

They are free to vote for anyone at the convention. For example, John Lewis promised his vote to Clinton in 2008...and then voted for Obama at the convention.

Treating them as pledged delegates is disingenuous at best.

 

NCTraveler

(30,481 posts)
16. Really a solid night.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 01:04 PM
Feb 2016

People keep telling me I should be upset. I don't get it. Clinton is in a better place in the cycle this morning than she was yesterday morning.

jeff47

(26,549 posts)
21. She spent a pile of money and damaged her future primary results for a tie.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 01:08 PM
Feb 2016

While predictions are difficult, especially about the future, what she sacrificed for a tie may hurt a lot.

Also, exit polling shows large GE problems. Clinton did abysmally with under 40 voters (like 80/20ish, depending on age group). She's going to need those voters to win the GE, and it's not clear how she can credibly change her message to fix that.

The other problem is this result breaks the claim of Sanders as extremist. Unless you want to claim half the party are extremists.

 

NCTraveler

(30,481 posts)
40. I don't think she damaged anything down the road.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 01:33 PM
Feb 2016

No clue how you would come to that conclusion. Sanders and Clinton both spent enormous sums of money.

There is no way of using exit polling to make a GE claim. None.

Can you point to where I called Sanders an extremist? That's a whole lot of all over the place.

Clinton won last night. I'm not sure why there is so much desperation to spin it as something else. One of the highest recommended ops during this primary was about how Sanders was going to take all fifty states.

I'm excited moving forward. Clinton is in an excellent position. When talking political elections, first is better than second every single time. That simply isn't disputable.

jeff47

(26,549 posts)
49. She pulled money and staff from super Tuesday states.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 01:52 PM
Feb 2016

So she's going to do worse on super Tuesday for a tie in IA. Again, it's not clear yet if she's going to do worse enough to change the overall result.

She also spent a LOT more money than Sanders in IA. Her burn rate is very high, and it's not clear she'll be able to keep up with what Sanders can spend. Her allied PACs can help some, but that reinforces one of Sanders's primary arguments against her.

There is no way of using exit polling to make a GE claim. None.

Sure there is. It tells you who does not like your candidate.

Clinton did poorly among people under 40 and independents (since you can register at the caucus, some independents did). Sanders did poorly among people over 40.

Over-40 Democrats are likely to respond to a "fall in line for the general election" argument, so that would be how Sanders fixes his problem.

"Fall in line" will not work at all for independents - they are not Democrats. And Clinton's message of "Nope" is unlikely to work with under-40 voters. We have to give them something to hope for, and maintaining the status quo does not do that. With Clinton already having a reputation as saying anything to get elected, it's going to be very hard for her to credibly change her message to get these groups on board.

Can you point to where I called Sanders an extremist? That's a whole lot of all over the place.

It's "you" as the non-archaic version of "one can't call...".

Clinton won last night. I'm not sure why there is so much desperation to spin it as something else.

Sending the same number of delegates to the convention is not a win. It's a tie.

When talking political elections, first is better than second every single time. That simply isn't disputable.

Depends on what you had to do to come in first. In 2008, Clinton alienated black voters to win in NH. It cost her SC and probably several other states.
 

NCTraveler

(30,481 posts)
52. What Is the delegate count out of Iowa?
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 02:01 PM
Feb 2016

You are the first person I have heard state an equal delegate count.

jeff47

(26,549 posts)
54. At the moment, 22-21, 1 unawarded.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 02:09 PM
Feb 2016

Given the inevitable recounts and adjustments, it'll end up being 20-ish for both candidates.

There are people trying to add superdelegates to the pledged delegate count to get a more clear win for Clinton. Since it is impossible to actually lock-in superdelegates and they usually go for the national popular vote winner, this is rather disingenuous.

 

NCTraveler

(30,481 posts)
56. So, 20ish has brought you to the bold comment...
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 02:14 PM
Feb 2016

That they are have the same number of delegates. I don't think Common Core Math could even come up with that.

Love this.

jeff47

(26,549 posts)
58. Do you really think one delegate is going to decide the nomination?
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 02:15 PM
Feb 2016

Whether it's 22-22, 23-21 or 21-23 isn't going to change the national result.

 

gcomeau

(5,764 posts)
19. 49 total delegates? Neat trick...
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 01:06 PM
Feb 2016

...considering Iowa only sends 44 to the convention. Where does the extra 5 come from?

Supers? Because yeah, *those* never change their mind based on how the rest of the primary goes...

 

hoosierlib

(710 posts)
26. Your numbers include Super Delegates
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 01:11 PM
Feb 2016

Only 44 delegates were up for grabs via the caucuses. Hillary won 22 and Bernie won 21. At this time, 1 delegate is still unawarded.

For all intents and purposes its a tie (especially when the candidate with the higher SDE is in that position because of the direct result of 6 coin flips).

I'm curious to know what the raw totals are....guessing DWS won't release those and for good reason...

jkbRN

(850 posts)
31. This map is based on "Clinton trails, Clinton leads" ummmmm
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 01:20 PM
Feb 2016

Source, plz.

Because as I see, this is what seems to be true (I will not accept data from a map that saying Clinton leads & clinton trails):

[IMG][/IMG]

rurallib

(62,448 posts)
51. excellent arguments for iowa to end their caucus 'system'
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 01:58 PM
Feb 2016

that few understand including the poor bastards who try to run the show.

Lil Missy

(17,865 posts)
53. Clinton the clear winner. Maybe by a hair, but still a win. I would concede though,
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 02:01 PM
Feb 2016

that Bernie Sanders is a worthy and formidable foe. A decent and honorable man with a good message.

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