2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNurseJackie
(42,862 posts)I'm glad to be among those who can discern the difference between the numbers "28" and "21".
Go, Hillary!
Alfresco
(1,698 posts)leveymg
(36,418 posts)was even determined.
The popular vote never mattered to her.
So she declared victory and hurried onto the jet without shaking hands, grateful to put the place and the people of Iowa behind her. A signature Hillary moment.
She lost far more political capital than she gained - another Pyrrhic war.
reformist2
(9,841 posts)Broward
(1,976 posts)kristopher
(29,798 posts)Thank you Botany
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141334345
Missing precinct scrambles to report Sanders won
Source: Des Moines Register
Votes from one precinct in Iowa were still missing Tuesday morning, and Democrats from that neighborhood were scrambling to find party officials so that they could report their tally: Bernie Sanders won by 2 delegates.
But the voters of Des Moines precinct No. 42 couldnt find anyone at Iowa Democratic Party to take their phone calls. The partys caucus hotline was no longer working. The party headquarters was locked.
Its important considering how close the race is. We need to be sure everyone has our accurate count, said Jill Joseph, a rank-and-file Democratic voter who backed Sanders in at No. 42 Monday night.
snip
It quickly raised questions about whether Sanders had won the popular vote in Iowa. Sanders backers called for Iowa Democratic Party officials to release the raw vote totals.
Read more: http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/02/02/some-democratic-precinct-results-unaccounted/79682184/
KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)Hillary didn't crush him? She must be rather mad at Iowa and she'll never go back.
Fearless
(18,421 posts)It's not actually true until the convention and pending the other races, those minds will change.
Stallion
(6,476 posts)nm
leveymg
(36,418 posts)She lost more than she gained.
Fearless
(18,421 posts)Approach to mislead.
Alfresco
(1,698 posts)Stallion
(6,476 posts)nm
Autumn
(45,120 posts)JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)Bernie was up in most polls the week of, then HRC went up +3 day before in DMR poll. Pretty much expected a tight one.
Autumn
(45,120 posts)Agschmid
(28,749 posts)I've been working my ass off in NH and I fully expect Sanders to carry that state no problem, some of us are a bit more realistic than others.
Autumn
(45,120 posts)DanTex
(20,709 posts)For example...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/128080714
Autumn
(45,120 posts)Not bad for a guy who was a year ago at 7% to Hills 68 % And your link doesn't change the fact that a few here expected Hillary to blow him out.
DanTex
(20,709 posts)Autumn
(45,120 posts)I'm not going to veer off into your parsing game.
DanTex
(20,709 posts)Autumn
(45,120 posts)whiners, oops I mean winners of any candidate ever.
MineralMan
(146,329 posts)by the end of the Iowa state convention. It's still a virtual tie. Clinton appears to have a slight edge, but that will really be erased by the time of the Democratic nominating convention. The numbers from Iowa are simply too small to make a difference in the outcome, and the difference between the two candidates' results are negligible in the mass of delegates to that convention.
Nothing wrong with ties, though. It certainly makes the rest of the primary season a little more interesting.
Hillary will still come out the winner, though. She will still be the Democratic nominee. I cannot see any other path to the convention, really.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)"who" is counting those votes?
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)Jarqui
(10,130 posts)jkbRN
(850 posts)Vinca
(50,303 posts)Pretty impressive considering Bernie started out in single digits.
MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)Now he has vast name recognition in a state that was tailor made for him to win, and he lost.
jkbRN
(850 posts)Clinton has had an extensive ground game there for over a year, as well as the support from her super pacs. So, your candidate should have done A LOT better--and should not be locked in an essential tie.
Take it as you may, but you should recognize all factors not just the ones that seemingly give a boost to your candidate of choice.
MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)That's why they had an extensive ground game, and, fortunately, it paid off.
Fearless
(18,421 posts)Autumn
(45,120 posts)Former Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin just said Hillary has the best Iowa caucus ground operation he has ever seen.
Vinca
(50,303 posts)MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)But I'm sure you know that.
Vinca
(50,303 posts)It wasn't a Cruz/Trump margin by any means. I only wish Democrats voted by paper ballots so there wouldn't be so many lingering questions. Coin tosses . . . good lord.
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)Superdelegates can switch allegiance any time they please.
4dsc
(5,787 posts)So it's not just super delegates who can switch but anyone can at the next level.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)At the convention, pledged delegates are required to vote for who they are pledged for, but only for the first vote.
If the first vote at the convention does not get anyone over 50%, pledged delegates can vote for whomever they want.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)They are free to vote for anyone at the convention. For example, John Lewis promised his vote to Clinton in 2008...and then voted for Obama at the convention.
Treating them as pledged delegates is disingenuous at best.
Fearless
(18,421 posts)John Poet
(2,510 posts)Lying liars lie together.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)People keep telling me I should be upset. I don't get it. Clinton is in a better place in the cycle this morning than she was yesterday morning.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)While predictions are difficult, especially about the future, what she sacrificed for a tie may hurt a lot.
Also, exit polling shows large GE problems. Clinton did abysmally with under 40 voters (like 80/20ish, depending on age group). She's going to need those voters to win the GE, and it's not clear how she can credibly change her message to fix that.
The other problem is this result breaks the claim of Sanders as extremist. Unless you want to claim half the party are extremists.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)No clue how you would come to that conclusion. Sanders and Clinton both spent enormous sums of money.
There is no way of using exit polling to make a GE claim. None.
Can you point to where I called Sanders an extremist? That's a whole lot of all over the place.
Clinton won last night. I'm not sure why there is so much desperation to spin it as something else. One of the highest recommended ops during this primary was about how Sanders was going to take all fifty states.
I'm excited moving forward. Clinton is in an excellent position. When talking political elections, first is better than second every single time. That simply isn't disputable.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)So she's going to do worse on super Tuesday for a tie in IA. Again, it's not clear yet if she's going to do worse enough to change the overall result.
She also spent a LOT more money than Sanders in IA. Her burn rate is very high, and it's not clear she'll be able to keep up with what Sanders can spend. Her allied PACs can help some, but that reinforces one of Sanders's primary arguments against her.
Sure there is. It tells you who does not like your candidate.
Clinton did poorly among people under 40 and independents (since you can register at the caucus, some independents did). Sanders did poorly among people over 40.
Over-40 Democrats are likely to respond to a "fall in line for the general election" argument, so that would be how Sanders fixes his problem.
"Fall in line" will not work at all for independents - they are not Democrats. And Clinton's message of "Nope" is unlikely to work with under-40 voters. We have to give them something to hope for, and maintaining the status quo does not do that. With Clinton already having a reputation as saying anything to get elected, it's going to be very hard for her to credibly change her message to get these groups on board.
It's "you" as the non-archaic version of "one can't call...".
Sending the same number of delegates to the convention is not a win. It's a tie.
Depends on what you had to do to come in first. In 2008, Clinton alienated black voters to win in NH. It cost her SC and probably several other states.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)You are the first person I have heard state an equal delegate count.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)Given the inevitable recounts and adjustments, it'll end up being 20-ish for both candidates.
There are people trying to add superdelegates to the pledged delegate count to get a more clear win for Clinton. Since it is impossible to actually lock-in superdelegates and they usually go for the national popular vote winner, this is rather disingenuous.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)That they are have the same number of delegates. I don't think Common Core Math could even come up with that.
Love this.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)Whether it's 22-22, 23-21 or 21-23 isn't going to change the national result.
gcomeau
(5,764 posts)...considering Iowa only sends 44 to the convention. Where does the extra 5 come from?
Supers? Because yeah, *those* never change their mind based on how the rest of the primary goes...
hoosierlib
(710 posts)Only 44 delegates were up for grabs via the caucuses. Hillary won 22 and Bernie won 21. At this time, 1 delegate is still unawarded.
For all intents and purposes its a tie (especially when the candidate with the higher SDE is in that position because of the direct result of 6 coin flips).
I'm curious to know what the raw totals are....guessing DWS won't release those and for good reason...
jkbRN
(850 posts)Source, plz.
Because as I see, this is what seems to be true (I will not accept data from a map that saying Clinton leads & clinton trails):
[IMG][/IMG]
Alfresco
(1,698 posts)Kentonio
(4,377 posts)rurallib
(62,448 posts)that few understand including the poor bastards who try to run the show.
Lil Missy
(17,865 posts)that Bernie Sanders is a worthy and formidable foe. A decent and honorable man with a good message.