2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNow do you believe me? The caucus system is a very messy process --
in Iowa and in all the other states that still rely on this antiquated system -- and should be replaced everywhere by primaries.
We have them in my state and I've hated them since the first time I attended one. On top of the problems we saw demonstrated last night, they are non-inclusive, non-representative, and have no secret ballots.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511102254
http://time.com/4172793/hillary-clinton-iowa-caucus-bernie-sanders/
The complicated rules of the caucus process are inherently tilted toward equalizing the strength of candidates, especially in a two person race. Only the number of delegates awarded in each precinct will be published on caucus night, which means there will be no official record of the candidates share of the voters at the caucusesa figure that will likely more closely mirror the pre-caucus polls.
As a result, Clinton will be at the mercy of a process little changed over generations, in which candidates can tie the delegate count, even if Clinton has far more support inside the room. If Sanders surprises with an upset, by bringing more caucus goers out, he will face a similar result, which looks more like a draw.
Heres how it works: Each of 1,681 precincts in the state is assigned a delegate count based on its relative strength of Democratic Party within that part of the state. To earn delegates, candidates are required to meet a threshold25% in two-delegate precincts to 15% in precincts with four or more delegatesin order to earn any delegates from each precinct. (The vast majority of precincts have four or more delegates, requiring the 15% threshold.)
For the large number of precincts with an even number of delegates, however, Clinton would have to win by large majorities in order to net more total delegates than Sanders. In odd-numbered-delegate precincts, barring a blowout, Sanders would still pick up several delegates.
SNIP
daleanime
(17,796 posts)to top.
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)I don't care that the "breaks" reportedly favored the candidate I support. When the contest is as close as it was last night, there is just too much ambiguity.
immoderate
(20,885 posts)--imm
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,836 posts)and unless you go state by state and convince a whole bunch of state legislatures and party officers to change their procedures it won't happen. Elections are state-run and are not controlled at the federal level. So if you are in a caucus state you should contact your state representative about getting some legislation drafted that changes the voting process to primary elections and eliminates the caucuses. And then talk to your state party leaders; both parties would have to agree to any changes. There's no other way to alter the way it's done.
pnwmom
(108,994 posts)the really galling part.
We passed a referendum that established a primary, and the Dem State Party filed suit. A judge ruled that the party has the right to assign delegates however it wishes. So the Repubs actually use the primary, but our primary is a beauty contest only that takes place AFTER the caucus. The caucus is what determines the assignment of all the delegates.
I'm still fighting it here, but too many people don't know or don't care.
floriduck
(2,262 posts)The primary is basically worthless due to the state party rules. I really have to wonder what's wrong with party leadership in general.
Blue_Adept
(6,402 posts)Trying to explain the caucus system to folks unaware of it is a process where they think you're pulling their legs.
But hey, it's a leave it to the states thing to determine it and for the party to determine it. you don't want a big organization in control.
It's amusing to watch the number of people demanding reform or change for it in a state they don't reside in because it doesn't conform to how things are done where they live.
oh karma
pnwmom
(108,994 posts)a primary instead.
The party took it to court and the Judge ruled that they can assign delegates however they want. So we have a worthless "beauty contest" primary after the caucuses assign delegates.
But the Rethugs decided to go along with it and use the primary.
The voters in my state should have had the control but we didn't. The State Party got in our way.