First Read: Why Clinton's Apparent Iowa Win Feels More Like a Loss

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read-why-clinton-s-apparent-iowa-win-feels-more-n509606

Who knew that Donald Trump's defeat last night in Iowa would be only the SECOND-most dramatic story of the evening? The most dramatic one was the announcement by NBC News, just before 4:00 am ET, declaring Hillary Clinton the apparent winner on the Democratic side, with Clinton getting 699.57 state delegate equivalents to Bernie Sanders' 695.49, with 2.28 still outstanding.

Yes, a win is a win for the Clinton campaign. And yes, that razor-thin margin points to Sanders' limitations in states other than Iowa, New Hampshire and Vermont. But there are three reasons why this apparent victory for Clinton feels more like a loss. One, there's already controversy, with the Sanders camp alleging that due to Iowa Democratic Party mismanagement, reports were late coming in from about 90 precincts, per NBC's Danny Freeman. And in an interview with NBC's Kasie Hunt, Sanders didn't rule out challenging the results. Two, winning essentially by one vote (err, five state delegate equivalents) instead of 1 percentage point, denied Clinton the opportunity to use ANY win as momentum heading into New Hampshire, where Sanders enjoys a sizable lead.

And three, if you don't want to take our word for it, here's the attitude inside Clinton Land. "Clinton advisers … said they did not know if a significant staff shakeup was at hand, but they said that the Clintons were disappointed with Monday night's result and wanted to ensure that her organization, political messaging and communications strategy were in better shape for the contests to come," the New York Times writes.

You have to give the Sanders campaign a lot of credit: Its "revolution" turned more than anyone had expected. (Turnout according to the state party was 171,109 -- not the nearly 240,000 from 2008, but certainly more than the 124,000 from 2004). But we stand by what we wrote yesterday: If Sanders is going to win the Democratic nomination, he needed a clear win, a la Barack Obama, to transform the races in more diverse states like South Carolina, where an NBC/WSJ/Marist poll last week found Clinton ahead, 64%-27%. Essentially tying Clinton in Iowa -- a very white and very liberal state -- points to Sanders' ceiling in states outside of New Hampshire and Vermont. And that won't be good enough, especially with Clinton's expected superdelegate advantage. As the late (and great) Darrell Royal used to say, a tie is like kissing your sister. And that's the reality this morning for both the Clinton and Sanders campaigns.

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