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Nuclear Unicorn

(19,497 posts)
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 03:57 PM Feb 2016

Imagine Ron Paul had lost Iowa by a half dozen coin tosses

This is not an endorsement of Ron Paul, who is nuttier than a squirrel's birthday cake, but rather a thought experiment.

Imagine how we, as the opposition to the GOP, would view Paul's showing. Would he still be dismissed as merely a fringe candidate or would we all suddenly, simultaneously sit bolt upright at the clarion call that he was now a legitimate threat to be contended with?

Would Paul's supporters say to themselves, "Well, we fought our hardest, I guess we should just pack it in, though" or would they see their goals within reach and redouble their efforts making them even more of a threat to their opponents?

Would the claims he was not a viable candidate still ring with the undecideds or those who originally sought safe haven among more acceptable candidates or would that showing allow him to draw in more support?

Would the halls of the Establishment, with its promises of safe haven from the enemy, seem as unshakeable as they once did?

Now imagine -- what if it wasn't nutty Ron Paul but rather someone who actually has consistently argued for the Democratic party's core values for decades.

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Imagine Ron Paul had lost Iowa by a half dozen coin tosses (Original Post) Nuclear Unicorn Feb 2016 OP
Ron Paul is a very apt analogy for Bernie Sanders. DanTex Feb 2016 #1
The insurgents are at the citadel gates as Nuclear Unicorn Feb 2016 #2
Good answer! DanTex Feb 2016 #3
Are you really pretending that she got no delegates from those 6 coin tosses? Autumn Feb 2016 #4
Not enough to sway the overall result. Are you pretending she did? DanTex Feb 2016 #5
Since I can do math I don't have to pretend. Autumn Feb 2016 #6
Aha, yet another misinformed Bernie fan. You are aware that the delegates assigned DanTex Feb 2016 #7
You are still pretending she got no delegates from her coin tosses. Autumn Feb 2016 #13
She got some, just not enough to make a difference in the outcome. DanTex Feb 2016 #17
That was my point, she got delegates from the coin tosses. nt Autumn Feb 2016 #21
Bernie did too. But however the coin tosses turned out, Hillary would have still won. DanTex Feb 2016 #22
I don't dispute her win. nt Autumn Feb 2016 #23
Some people are better at arithmetic than reading. pnwmom Feb 2016 #14
6 out of 11,065. LOL. even the six is being disputed. bettyellen Feb 2016 #9
Those were county delegates, not the state delegates that determined the outcome. pnwmom Feb 2016 #11
the six were out of 11,065 local delegates for fucks sake. truly negligible. bettyellen Feb 2016 #8
The 6 coin tosses did not change the overall outcome. They were associated with "county delegates" pnwmom Feb 2016 #10
As Sanders campaign manager said... NCTraveler Feb 2016 #16
They're just trying to make Democrats suspicious about the outcome. pnwmom Feb 2016 #24
Not a chance. NCTraveler Feb 2016 #12
Hillary didn't win by coin toss. The information is now all over GD/P, including a post by Skinner alcibiades_mystery Feb 2016 #15
Yes, Ron Paul would still be dismissed as a fringe candidate Cali_Democrat Feb 2016 #18
But Sanders isn't. Nuclear Unicorn Feb 2016 #25
Hillary Clinton won an extremely close race. Everything else is commentary. DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2016 #19
Bernie didn't lose by a half dozen coin tosses dbackjon Feb 2016 #20

DanTex

(20,709 posts)
1. Ron Paul is a very apt analogy for Bernie Sanders.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 04:01 PM
Feb 2016

In this story, do Ron Paul supporters pretend that the coin tosses decided the election even though everyone knowledgeable has pointed out that they weren't enough to swing it? Or are they smarter/more honest than that?

Nuclear Unicorn

(19,497 posts)
2. The insurgents are at the citadel gates as
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 04:07 PM
Feb 2016

its foundation crumbles beneath the weight of its own excesses.

DanTex

(20,709 posts)
7. Aha, yet another misinformed Bernie fan. You are aware that the delegates assigned
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 04:12 PM
Feb 2016

by coin toss were county delegates, not state delegate equivalents, right?

Autumn

(45,120 posts)
13. You are still pretending she got no delegates from her coin tosses.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 04:22 PM
Feb 2016

She did, and those individual county delegate selections at a handful of precincts count for a tiny fraction of the ultimate result. Hillary won 49.9 percent and Bernie won 49.5 percent.

DanTex

(20,709 posts)
22. Bernie did too. But however the coin tosses turned out, Hillary would have still won.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 04:30 PM
Feb 2016

The coin tosses were irrelevant to the outcome of the caucus.

 

bettyellen

(47,209 posts)
8. the six were out of 11,065 local delegates for fucks sake. truly negligible.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 04:16 PM
Feb 2016

if they weren;t there would be an actual scandal here instead of this embarrassment of confusion. the six is also disputed, but .....6/11065- do the math.

pnwmom

(108,994 posts)
10. The 6 coin tosses did not change the overall outcome. They were associated with "county delegates"
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 04:19 PM
Feb 2016

not "state delegates."



http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/02/02/sometimes-iowa-democrats-award-caucus-delegates-coin-flip/79680342/


It happened in precinct 2-4 in Ames, where supporters of candidates Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton disputed the results after 60 caucus participants apparently disappeared from the proceedings.

As a result of the coin toss, Clinton was awarded an additional delegate, meaning she took five of the precinct’s eight, while Sanders received three.

Similar situations played out at various precincts across the state, but had an extremely small effect on the overall outcome, in which Clinton won 49.9 percent of statewide delegate equivalents, while Sanders won 49.5 percent. The delegates that were decided by coin flips were delegates to the party's county conventions, of which there are thousands selected across the state from 1,681 separate precincts. They were not the statewide delegate equivalents that are reported in the final results.

The statewide delegate equivalents that determine the outcome on caucus night are derived from the county-level delegates, but are aggregated across the state and weighted in a manner that makes individual county delegate selections at a handful of precincts count for a tiny fraction of the ultimate result.
 

NCTraveler

(30,481 posts)
16. As Sanders campaign manager said...
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 04:23 PM
Feb 2016

He wasn't familiar with the rules of the caucus. Apple doesn't fall far from the tree.

pnwmom

(108,994 posts)
24. They're just trying to make Democrats suspicious about the outcome.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 04:40 PM
Feb 2016

Since most of us don't understand the rules and they ARE crazy. But that's not Hillary's fault.

 

NCTraveler

(30,481 posts)
12. Not a chance.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 04:22 PM
Feb 2016

His supporters deserted him for Sanders. I think it was a smart move on Sanders part to have his volunteers showing up at Paul events.

 

alcibiades_mystery

(36,437 posts)
15. Hillary didn't win by coin toss. The information is now all over GD/P, including a post by Skinner
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 04:23 PM
Feb 2016

Ignorance of the actual process is no longer an excuse.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,711 posts)
19. Hillary Clinton won an extremely close race. Everything else is commentary.
Tue Feb 2, 2016, 04:27 PM
Feb 2016

There has to be some closure. There is no such thing as ties in political races. In the absence of a winner and a loser you would have chaos.

BTW. I would say that regardless of the candidates. It's just common sense.

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