2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumU Mass New Hampshire Tracking Poll-Sanders 55% (-6) Clinton 40% (+11)
http://www.uml.edu/docs/2-6%20TOPLINE%20-%20UMassLowell-7NEWS%20NH%20PRIMARY_tcm18-230852.pdf
mcar
(42,372 posts)stonecutter357
(12,697 posts)DemocraticSocialist8
(396 posts)and buying into the notion that she's a "progressive" who "gets things done."
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)Last edited Sat Feb 6, 2016, 01:33 PM - Edit history (1)
BlueMTexpat
(15,373 posts)crossed. But this poll and the ARG poll that you also posted are giving me hope.
The momentum seems to be moving in the right direction.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)In the interest of full disclosure there are polls showing her doing much worse.
BlueMTexpat
(15,373 posts)at +16.9 Sanders right now. The last time I checked, it was >20 Sanders. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html
That's a big gap. But I still maintain that there could be "surprises" on voting day to Clinton's benefit, e.g., whether Indies will choose to vote in the GOPer primary rather than in the Dem to give Bernie support and whether GOP women may cross-over to vote for Clinton because every GOPer candidate is a true believer in the War on Women.
FiveThirtyEight (Harry Enton) believes that Bernie needs a BIG win in NH and suggests than beating HRC merely by single digits will not bode well for his candidacy. He also believes that most interpretation will depend on the press "spin."
Of course, Clinton probably wont let that storyline spread without a fight. Shell probably point out that Sanders is from next-door Vermont, and candidates such as Edmund Muskie, Michael Dukakis, Paul Tsongas, John Kerry and Howard Dean all from states bordering New Hampshire finished first or second in the New Hampshire primary. She might also point out that Iowa and New Hampshire should be two of Sanderss strongest states demographically theyre full of white liberals.
All the spinning probably wont do Clinton any good, though, if she loses by a ton lets say around 15 percentage points or more (thats an educated guesstimate). Clinton might be more credible in claiming a moral victory if she were to lose by a margin in the single digits. Her husband, Bill Clinton, declared himself the comeback kid in 1992 after losing the New Hampshire primary to Tsongas by 8 percentage points. And the media bought it because Bill Clinton outperformed expectations; charges of marital infidelity in the lead up to the primary had caused Clintons poll numbers to tumble.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-needs-a-big-win-in-new-hampshire/
Tuesday cannot come soon enough, IMO.
avaistheone1
(14,626 posts)k&r
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)SheenaR
(2,052 posts)leads with women and ages 18-29, 30-39, 40-49, 50-64
loses 65+
Non white?
Bernie 49
Hillary 46
Good poll all around for Bernie
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)That was the silliest bet I ever made.
I will be interested to see how much of the 31 point lead he had on Monday he holds.
SheenaR
(2,052 posts)I see a 55-45 victory as pretty plausible. I'm more concerned about the win and the bounce toward Nevada. A few either way will not hurt either candidate.
AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)Father Pflager 'splains it all.