Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

elleng

(131,129 posts)
Wed Oct 3, 2012, 01:11 AM Oct 2012

Obama 348, Romney 190: UAH astrophysicist, who got it right twice before, predicts electoral results

There is little suspense left in our presidential horse race, even in most of the so-called swing states, says astrophysicist and statistician Wes Colley.


The way he measures the poll data and his deceptively simple median method, which have correctly predicted the last two presidential elections, show President Obama has locked up Ohio and Virginia and cemented a small, but stable lead in Florida.

Bottom line: Obama is well on his way to re-election.

"I think the operative word is disaster if you're a Republican," said Colley on Monday. "I think the operative word is confidence if you're a Democrat."

"These things can swing a lot. But it would have to swing a lot a lot."

http://blog.al.com/breaking/2012/10/uah_astrophysicist_and_college.html

9 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Obama 348, Romney 190: UAH astrophysicist, who got it right twice before, predicts electoral results (Original Post) elleng Oct 2012 OP
Landslide Obama ... his new nickname. ;) Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #1
K&R HopeHoops Oct 2012 #2
And he's from Univ of Alabama, that bastion of liberals smorkingapple Oct 2012 #3
NC is genuinely a toss up state, though, which means with a strong turnout Obama can win it. yellowcanine Oct 2012 #5
Statisticians can't be 'liberal/conservative/teabug/northern/southern.' elleng Oct 2012 #8
Finally someone is using these multiple state polls the way they should be used. yellowcanine Oct 2012 #4
If this is guy is correct, Missouri could also go for Obama, putting him over 350 EV. yellowcanine Oct 2012 #6
Interesting method, I like it. bemildred Oct 2012 #7
Not sure why he says 348 instead of 347. robertpaulsen Oct 2012 #9

smorkingapple

(827 posts)
3. And he's from Univ of Alabama, that bastion of liberals
Wed Oct 3, 2012, 10:43 AM
Oct 2012

I've been thinking 348 at best myself assuming Obama can pull out NC(still a longshot in my view though)

yellowcanine

(35,701 posts)
5. NC is genuinely a toss up state, though, which means with a strong turnout Obama can win it.
Wed Oct 3, 2012, 11:03 AM
Oct 2012

I would agree it is a longshot for Obama IF it weren't for the huge lead Obama has with Hispanic voters, of which there are many in NC. IF those Hispanic voters are energized Obama will win NC by a couple of points, imo. This is where the debates actually might make a difference.

elleng

(131,129 posts)
8. Statisticians can't be 'liberal/conservative/teabug/northern/southern.'
Wed Oct 3, 2012, 01:10 PM
Oct 2012

Last edited Wed Oct 3, 2012, 05:22 PM - Edit history (1)

If they were, they wouldn't have jobs (I assume.)

yellowcanine

(35,701 posts)
4. Finally someone is using these multiple state polls the way they should be used.
Wed Oct 3, 2012, 10:58 AM
Oct 2012

It is ludicrous to change a state's status based on the most recent poll the way some of the EV sites appear to do. This median method appears to be highly accurate.

yellowcanine

(35,701 posts)
6. If this is guy is correct, Missouri could also go for Obama, putting him over 350 EV.
Wed Oct 3, 2012, 11:06 AM
Oct 2012

That would be sweet indeed.

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
7. Interesting method, I like it.
Wed Oct 3, 2012, 11:27 AM
Oct 2012

First time I've seen someone talk sensibly about poll results.

"The beauty is it kicks out the outliers," he said.

robertpaulsen

(8,632 posts)
9. Not sure why he says 348 instead of 347.
Wed Oct 3, 2012, 03:12 PM
Oct 2012

Is he counting that lone Nebraska delegate President Obama won in 2008?

Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»2016 Postmortem»Obama 348, Romney 190: UA...