2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumObama 348, Romney 190: UAH astrophysicist, who got it right twice before, predicts electoral results
There is little suspense left in our presidential horse race, even in most of the so-called swing states, says astrophysicist and statistician Wes Colley.
The way he measures the poll data and his deceptively simple median method, which have correctly predicted the last two presidential elections, show President Obama has locked up Ohio and Virginia and cemented a small, but stable lead in Florida.
Bottom line: Obama is well on his way to re-election.
"I think the operative word is disaster if you're a Republican," said Colley on Monday. "I think the operative word is confidence if you're a Democrat."
"These things can swing a lot. But it would have to swing a lot a lot."
http://blog.al.com/breaking/2012/10/uah_astrophysicist_and_college.html
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)smorkingapple
(827 posts)I've been thinking 348 at best myself assuming Obama can pull out NC(still a longshot in my view though)
yellowcanine
(35,701 posts)I would agree it is a longshot for Obama IF it weren't for the huge lead Obama has with Hispanic voters, of which there are many in NC. IF those Hispanic voters are energized Obama will win NC by a couple of points, imo. This is where the debates actually might make a difference.
elleng
(131,129 posts)Last edited Wed Oct 3, 2012, 05:22 PM - Edit history (1)
If they were, they wouldn't have jobs (I assume.)
yellowcanine
(35,701 posts)It is ludicrous to change a state's status based on the most recent poll the way some of the EV sites appear to do. This median method appears to be highly accurate.
yellowcanine
(35,701 posts)That would be sweet indeed.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)First time I've seen someone talk sensibly about poll results.
robertpaulsen
(8,632 posts)Is he counting that lone Nebraska delegate President Obama won in 2008?