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DanTex

(20,709 posts)
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 10:40 AM Feb 2016

Paul Krugman: Electability.

Vox interviewed some political scientists a few days ago to discuss Bernie's electability. Paul Krugman chimes in. Of particular interest to me was his spot-on prediction of how the usual suspects were going to once again ignore the views of experts who actually study the topic for a living in favor of their "gut."

If you are still on the fence in the Democratic primary, or still persuadable, you should know that Vox interviewed a number of political scientists about the electability of Bernie Sanders, and got responses ranging from warnings about a steep uphill climb to predictions of a McGovern-Nixon style blowout defeat. And all of them dismiss current polls as meaningless.

You are, of course, free to disagree. But you need to carefully explain why you disagree — what evidence do you have suggesting that these scholars’ conclusions, which are based on history and data, not just gut feelings, are wrong?

And there are two really unacceptable answers that I’m sure will pop up again and again in comments. One is to dismiss all such analyses as the product of corruption — they’re all bought and paid for by Wall Street, or looking for a job in a Clinton administration. No, they aren’t. The other is to say that you’re willing to take the chance, because Clinton would be just as bad as a Republican. That’s what Naderites said about Al Gore; how’d that work out?

...

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/02/06/electability-2/

Another home run, Mr Krugman.
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Paul Krugman: Electability. (Original Post) DanTex Feb 2016 OP
And it's just easier to do nothing.... daleanime Feb 2016 #1
Isn't it funny... TCJ70 Feb 2016 #2
That's not true. There's a small chance that Sanders supporters will win him the nomination DanTex Feb 2016 #5
Honesty, I think either of our candidates can will the general.... daleanime Feb 2016 #9
I hope you're right. I don't see it with Bernie. If he wins the nomination, it's going to be a DanTex Feb 2016 #10
What is Hillary's favoriblities? daleanime Feb 2016 #12
You should really read that Vox article. GE polls this far out are meaningless, everyone knows this. DanTex Feb 2016 #13
You really should just answer my question. daleanime Feb 2016 #15
I did. Polls this far out from the GE carry no information, as everyone knows. DanTex Feb 2016 #18
My question was not what do you think about the polls.... daleanime Feb 2016 #19
Of course Hillary will have an easier time. Not because the GOP DanTex Feb 2016 #23
Vulnerabilities? Really? daleanime Feb 2016 #26
Thanks...hadn't seen the last two. libdem4life Feb 2016 #48
Ask President McCain how that worked. dogman Feb 2016 #14
Actually, no, we didn't. A lot of knowledgable people thought Obama was more electable than DanTex Feb 2016 #16
I guess we remember a different election. dogman Feb 2016 #21
I guess so. You honestly don't remember all the sitting senators who were backing Obama? DanTex Feb 2016 #22
I remember Senator Kennedy breaking the dam for PBO. dogman Feb 2016 #25
He had plenty of endorsements before Kennedy. Even before he started running, he had been encouraged DanTex Feb 2016 #27
Trying to get a liberal like Clinton elected in place of Rubio or Cruz is not "doing nothing". Donald Ian Rankin Feb 2016 #34
Except when she proudly claims the title.... daleanime Feb 2016 #37
Arguably. Donald Ian Rankin Feb 2016 #40
That changes by the hour, sometimes she's progressive sometimes she's a moderate. JRLeft Feb 2016 #44
You do realise that they're not mutually exclusive, right? N.T. Donald Ian Rankin Feb 2016 #45
Moderate means corporatist, you do understand that right? JRLeft Feb 2016 #46
No, that's self-indulgent horseshit. N.T. Donald Ian Rankin Feb 2016 #49
No it's true, bought and paid for. JRLeft Feb 2016 #50
McGovern had the youth vote with him in the primaries too. book_worm Feb 2016 #3
What was the economic state of the nation re income disparity w/ McGovern & Mondale? kristopher Feb 2016 #6
The big issue driving McGovern and his followers 1939 Feb 2016 #7
"Clinton would be just as bad as a Republican. That’s what Naderites said..." wyldwolf Feb 2016 #4
Krugman's Nader line is disinegnuous. thesquanderer Feb 2016 #42
The quote is spot on. wyldwolf Feb 2016 #43
Every time someone tries to day the Dems and Cons are the same - OhZone Feb 2016 #51
The VOX article was well written and researched Gothmog Feb 2016 #8
No need to worry about Bernard's electability. He will not be the nominee. Alfresco Feb 2016 #11
Probably not, but it's a risk. Donald Ian Rankin Feb 2016 #35
My gut suggests that this could be an unfortunate election cycle for Democrats Dem2 Feb 2016 #17
Not just your gut. Donald Ian Rankin Feb 2016 #41
Krugman On Obama-ites in 2008 DrFunkenstein Feb 2016 #20
^^THIS^^ n/t Admiral Loinpresser Feb 2016 #28
Krugman: "do consider the evidence"; Krugman: "dismiss current polls" Chathamization Feb 2016 #24
That's because current polls carry no information this far out from the GE. How do we know this? DanTex Feb 2016 #31
Like I said, if any of them said Sanders had a good chance of defeating Clinton when he entered, Chathamization Feb 2016 #38
Favorability is our best estimate of electability, Motown_Johnny Feb 2016 #29
"Just to be clear: I’m not saying that someone like Sanders is unelectable," PoliticAverse Feb 2016 #30
DU rec... SidDithers Feb 2016 #32
Sorry Paul, I'm for letting the people decide this debate Jarqui Feb 2016 #33
Comparing Bernie supporters to "Naderites" Avalux Feb 2016 #36
Krugman gets it right once again. nt oasis Feb 2016 #39
Great analysis. (I'm sure it won't please the hardcore Bernie fans much, but it pleases me!) NurseJackie Feb 2016 #47
Swing and a Miss Iggy Knorr Feb 2016 #52

daleanime

(17,796 posts)
1. And it's just easier to do nothing....
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 10:44 AM
Feb 2016

because we can never ever change anything. Learned helplessness is so relaxing.

TCJ70

(4,387 posts)
2. Isn't it funny...
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 10:46 AM
Feb 2016

...how HRC supporters are convinced nothing can change because Sanders supporters are all lazy. Yet they don't seem to want to lift a finger to change anything.

DanTex

(20,709 posts)
5. That's not true. There's a small chance that Sanders supporters will win him the nomination
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 10:49 AM
Feb 2016

which would result in president Rubio/Cruz/Trump. And then things will definitely change.

daleanime

(17,796 posts)
9. Honesty, I think either of our candidates can will the general....
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 11:59 AM
Feb 2016

but only Bernie gives a chance to start changing congress in our direction. The only thing that republicans look forward to more then running against Hillary this fall, is running against her in '18 and '20 after having only allowed her to pass her corporate agenda.

Anyone trying to tell me that Hillary will have a easier general election then Bernie is someone I can't take seriously. You have a lovely day.

DanTex

(20,709 posts)
10. I hope you're right. I don't see it with Bernie. If he wins the nomination, it's going to be a
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 12:03 PM
Feb 2016

nervous 6 months. And the downside risk with him is huge. If the whole "people will love socialism once they get to know it better" argument doesn't actually work, we could be looking at not just a GOP president, but deep losses down the ballot as well.

daleanime

(17,796 posts)
12. What is Hillary's favoriblities?
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 12:09 PM
Feb 2016

How does she poll among independents? Is there a person in this nation who even leans republican who wouldn't crawl over broken glass to vote against her? And you really want me to believe that she will have an easier time of it in this election?

DanTex

(20,709 posts)
13. You should really read that Vox article. GE polls this far out are meaningless, everyone knows this.
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 12:10 PM
Feb 2016

DanTex

(20,709 posts)
18. I did. Polls this far out from the GE carry no information, as everyone knows.
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 12:14 PM
Feb 2016

I notice you're ignoring this fact. Hmm...

daleanime

(17,796 posts)
19. My question was not what do you think about the polls....
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 12:22 PM
Feb 2016

I willing to keep trying as long as it takes....


Do...You...Really...Think...Hillary...Will....Have...An...Easier...Time....Of....It....This....Election?


Prove to me that there's still some small chance for discussion between the two camps, or that there isn't.

DanTex

(20,709 posts)
23. Of course Hillary will have an easier time. Not because the GOP
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 12:31 PM
Feb 2016

will go easier on her, but that she just doesn't have nearly as many vulnerabilities. Like I said, read the Vox article. Are you afraid of it? It's just an article.

DanTex

(20,709 posts)
16. Actually, no, we didn't. A lot of knowledgable people thought Obama was more electable than
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 12:12 PM
Feb 2016

Hillary. He had a lot of support from elected Dems, from the start. Most importantly, he wasn't a socialist. And his policy platform was basically the same as Hillary's. Bernie's a whole different story.

dogman

(6,073 posts)
21. I guess we remember a different election.
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 12:25 PM
Feb 2016

Hillary, just as now, had the establishment support. It faded as PBO gained momentum. Have you forgotten Barack HUSSEIN Obama. Of course him being black made no difference either? Since I receive Social Security and Medicare, I am not scared by the word socialist. Bernie is a different story, he does not represent the 1%.

DanTex

(20,709 posts)
22. I guess so. You honestly don't remember all the sitting senators who were backing Obama?
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 12:29 PM
Feb 2016

Fair enough.

dogman

(6,073 posts)
25. I remember Senator Kennedy breaking the dam for PBO.
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 12:40 PM
Feb 2016

The sitting Senators were not the entire Democratic establishment. I remember black politicians supporting Hillary until PBO proved he was viable. I was a Hillary supporter at the time and I remember the Dem establishment taking votes from Hillary in MI. I remember the Florida fiasco. There was not much difference between them because they are both corporatists. I supported Hillary because she admitted it then and I gave her points for honesty even if I was not happy about it.

DanTex

(20,709 posts)
27. He had plenty of endorsements before Kennedy. Even before he started running, he had been encouraged
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 12:46 PM
Feb 2016

to get into the race by a lot of political veterans (including Harry Reid IIRC, there's a lot of reporting about this in "Game Change&quot . The "out of nowhere" Obama story is a myth. He was widely acknowledged as a skilled politician and a rising star since he gave that speech in 2004. Even before that, in fact -- the fact that they even picked him for that speech is an indication of how many people believed in him.

And his politics were pretty much those of a mainstream Democrat. His platform was about the same as Hillary's. This primary is a totally different story.

Donald Ian Rankin

(13,598 posts)
34. Trying to get a liberal like Clinton elected in place of Rubio or Cruz is not "doing nothing".
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 12:56 PM
Feb 2016

I refer you to the last sentence of the quote in the OP...

Donald Ian Rankin

(13,598 posts)
40. Arguably.
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 01:34 PM
Feb 2016

Unlike Sanders, Clinton has the sense to try to claim to be a moderate (n.b: moderate is not an alternative to liberal, it's a qualifier), and unlike him, by some definitions she actually is.

But consider this chart: http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/cbs-second-democratic-debate-2016-presidential-election/?#livepress-update-19547041

Clinton will be the second most liberal Democratic nominee in modern times, behind George McGovern.

 

JRLeft

(7,010 posts)
44. That changes by the hour, sometimes she's progressive sometimes she's a moderate.
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 03:50 PM
Feb 2016

She may be a teabagger during the GE. Who knows.

book_worm

(15,951 posts)
3. McGovern had the youth vote with him in the primaries too.
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 10:47 AM
Feb 2016

First time 18 year olds could vote as well and it didn't do any good. He was labeled a tax and spend radical. Wanting to raise taxes. Sorry but these things don't work in presidential elections. Mondale found that out, too.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
6. What was the economic state of the nation re income disparity w/ McGovern & Mondale?
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 10:54 AM
Feb 2016

What was national membership in the two parties? How many people were Independent?



Can you show me an "analysis" where those critical aspects of the Sander's campaign's reasoning are incorporated?

What pisses me off is that Krugman knows this and ignores it.

1939

(1,683 posts)
7. The big issue driving McGovern and his followers
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 11:03 AM
Feb 2016

Was the Vietnam War. By Nov 1972, that issue had been taken completely out of his hands by Nixon. There were only 15,000 US troops left over there and combat was virtually non-existent for the US forces.

wyldwolf

(43,867 posts)
4. "Clinton would be just as bad as a Republican. That’s what Naderites said..."
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 10:48 AM
Feb 2016

And don't forget, Sanders himself has essentially said Democrats and Republicans are the same. And by extension, so has his followers.

thesquanderer

(11,989 posts)
42. Krugman's Nader line is disinegnuous.
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 03:44 PM
Feb 2016

He wants to know how that worked out? Well, Nader ran as a third-party candidate. That is an entirely different scenario, and Sanders has already promised he would not do that. Therefore it will not "work out" the same, as there is no chance that a Sanders third-party run will help the Republicans win in November. So it's a ridiculous statement.

OhZone

(3,212 posts)
51. Every time someone tries to day the Dems and Cons are the same -
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 05:33 PM
Feb 2016

it helps the Cons and drives us deeper into a GOP mess.

Donald Ian Rankin

(13,598 posts)
35. Probably not, but it's a risk.
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 12:58 PM
Feb 2016

Sanders' chance of winning the primary is low, but not as low as his chance of winning the general, because fewer people vote in the primary, and doing so is likely to correlate with supporting Sanders rather than Clinton.

Clinton is clearly the favourite, but I'll freely admit that the possibility of Sanders winning - and handing the Republicans the presidency on a platter - has me scared.

Dem2

(8,168 posts)
17. My gut suggests that this could be an unfortunate election cycle for Democrats
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 12:13 PM
Feb 2016

I hope I'm wrong, but the elections referenced still burn inside me. I'll never forget my father saying "I can't believe Nixon won".

Donald Ian Rankin

(13,598 posts)
41. Not just your gut.
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 01:47 PM
Feb 2016

With the exception of 88, no party has held the presidency for more than 8 years at a time since the war. This year is the Republicans' to lose, unfortunately.

DrFunkenstein

(8,745 posts)
20. Krugman On Obama-ites in 2008
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 12:25 PM
Feb 2016

"I won’t try for fake evenhandedness here: most of the venom I see is coming from supporters of Mr. Obama, who want their hero or nobody. I’m not the first to point out that the Obama campaign seems dangerously close to becoming a cult of personality. We’ve already had that from the Bush administration — remember Operation Flight Suit? We really don’t want to go there again."

...

"Mrs. Clinton may yet be the nominee — and if Obama supporters care about anything beyond hero worship, they should want to see her win in November."

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/11/opinion/11krugman.html?_r=0

I'm assuming that Krugman, who has been trying hard to shoot down Sanders, will get on board should he become the nominee.

Chathamization

(1,638 posts)
24. Krugman: "do consider the evidence"; Krugman: "dismiss current polls"
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 12:38 PM
Feb 2016

Eh...

But do consider the evidence — don’t decide what you want to believe and then make up justifications.


And all of them dismiss current polls as meaningless.

You are, of course, free to disagree. But you need to carefully explain why you disagree — what evidence do you have suggesting that these scholars’ conclusions, which are based on history and data, not just gut feelings, are wrong?


Eh. Anyways, if any of them were saying "Sanders has a good shot at winning the primary but will probably lose in the election" they might be worth listening to. If they were saying that he has no shot at winning the primary when he entered it (as most were), then I'm not sure why we'd give such weight to their predictions if he won the primary. This should be pretty obvious.

DanTex

(20,709 posts)
31. That's because current polls carry no information this far out from the GE. How do we know this?
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 12:54 PM
Feb 2016

From history and data. Shocking, I know. You see, if you look at past elections, and compare the outcome to polls taken this far in advance, there is little to no correlation.

Chathamization

(1,638 posts)
38. Like I said, if any of them said Sanders had a good chance of defeating Clinton when he entered,
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 01:08 PM
Feb 2016

then it would be worth considering what they say. If not, Krugman's asking us to give great weight to someone's prediction about what will happen if their last prediction was wrong.

 

Motown_Johnny

(22,308 posts)
29. Favorability is our best estimate of electability,
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 12:50 PM
Feb 2016

and the more voters see of Hillary, the less electable she becomes.





















PoliticAverse

(26,366 posts)
30. "Just to be clear: I’m not saying that someone like Sanders is unelectable,"
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 12:50 PM
Feb 2016

From:
http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20160122/columnist/160129866
By PAUL KRUGMAN, The New York Times
Published: Friday, January 22, 2016 at 4:28 p.m.


Jarqui

(10,126 posts)
33. Sorry Paul, I'm for letting the people decide this debate
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 12:55 PM
Feb 2016

- not the referees, like you

What we seem to be seeing, even if Sanders were to lose, is a lot of the Washington establishment is perceived to have their head up their collective asses. They're in Washington to serve the people but either by excessive corporate money or ignorance or whatever you want to call it, they're doing a lousy job.

Eventually, it may well be as simple as "folks are fed up".

Put down your calculator and close down your spreadsheets, real change is going to come. If not this cycle, soon.

What many are about to learn is Bernie is on to something. It resonates. What Bernie stands for is going to be a formidable opponent even when the DNC, Democratic establishment, Wallstreet, corporations and the media are all in for Hillary.

Avalux

(35,015 posts)
36. Comparing Bernie supporters to "Naderites"
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 01:00 PM
Feb 2016


Hillary's campaign really is desperate and Paul Krugman is such a disappointment. He is either so out of touch that he doesn't get it, or he's paid to say whatever he's told. Maybe both.
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