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Hillary Surging in New Hampshire (Original Post) ericson00 Feb 2016 OP
The trend is clear! treestar Feb 2016 #1
At this rate she will be leading by Tuesday 6chars Feb 2016 #36
Yes, we expect her to win. That is now the threshold she must cross Motown_Johnny Feb 2016 #52
How did Sanders blow his big lead so badly? KittyWampus Feb 2016 #59
They're trying to make her sound like the Comeback Kid, lol! reformist2 Feb 2016 #93
So, at this rate she will be leading by Tuesday? Motown_Johnny Feb 2016 #143
the rate changed. 6chars Feb 2016 #144
Of course it did. You could not possibly have been kidding yourself. n/t Motown_Johnny Feb 2016 #145
my statement was correct 6chars Feb 2016 #146
Sorry that isn't true Motown_Johnny Feb 2016 #149
i was talking shorter term trend 6chars Feb 2016 #156
You need to consider some margin of error fluctuations. Motown_Johnny Feb 2016 #157
Monmouth's last poll in January was Sanders 53 Clinton 39 JimDandy Feb 2016 #44
Aren't they all corporate owned? treestar Feb 2016 #66
You sound confused. First *The trend is clear*, now: the polls are *rigged* JimDandy Feb 2016 #77
Monmouth is a joke gyroscope Feb 2016 #78
Love it! MoonRiver Feb 2016 #2
I thought that it said that 60% are completely decided. blue neen Feb 2016 #95
Surge! Cali_Democrat Feb 2016 #3
Yep, Hillary is into surges... John Poet Feb 2016 #28
That smarmy picture turns my stomach. elias49 Feb 2016 #53
Now that's some special pontification there. So astute! KittyWampus Feb 2016 #62
Back at you Wampus elias49 Feb 2016 #76
Have to ask you if you are sure you are not a Republican treestar Feb 2016 #70
Yea, because only republican-lite is allowed to post on DU nolabels Feb 2016 #87
Don't understand. treestar Feb 2016 #137
Ten or twelve years ago on DU we posted more about issues nolabels Feb 2016 #140
+1...nt SidDithers Feb 2016 #98
Not a Republican. elias49 Feb 2016 #118
Don't be ridiculous. A Democrat can certainly hate another Democrat. virgogal Feb 2016 #126
Not usually on this level treestar Feb 2016 #138
Or George Wallace, or Lester Maddox, or Ross Barnett, or... Art_from_Ark Feb 2016 #164
She's totally charming in that picture. Hortensis Feb 2016 #117
Air-brushed? elias49 Feb 2016 #119
You support Bernie and NastyRiffraff Feb 2016 #120
Not seriously at all. Calm down. elias49 Feb 2016 #124
Okay, sorry! NastyRiffraff Feb 2016 #141
Hillary Surges to worst defeat in Democratic Presidential Primary History. Motown_Johnny Feb 2016 #159
Wow. If she leaves NH with any momentum, that's the whole ballgame. Bleacher Creature Feb 2016 #4
No because Sanders has money and grassroots support to stay it this all the way to California Cheese Sandwich Feb 2016 #7
Agree with you on timing. Bleacher Creature Feb 2016 #17
Yes, with his PAC's spending for him all the way! Is he going to drag it out KittyWampus Feb 2016 #65
Yep the momentum train has arrived! treestar Feb 2016 #81
Other polls released today kcjohn1 Feb 2016 #5
thanks! Merryland Feb 2016 #10
Thanks for the reality check. n/t ljm2002 Feb 2016 #11
Thanks! tecelote Feb 2016 #19
So, she's gained ground in 3 out of 4 72DejaVu Feb 2016 #27
Shhh.... Motown_Johnny Feb 2016 #64
Thanks for your fact checking, kcjohn1 MissDeeds Feb 2016 #85
Thank you. 840high Feb 2016 #135
Bride of Comeback Kid ucrdem Feb 2016 #6
never seen such blatant mysogyny ericson00 Feb 2016 #14
holy cow you're serious? ucrdem Feb 2016 #16
I'm really sorry ericson00 Feb 2016 #45
So, if he was a Bernie supporter it's mysogyny? BillZBubb Feb 2016 #60
That's an Oopsie. libdem4life Feb 2016 #63
cause you can tell it is sarcasm treestar Feb 2016 #67
Like I said, pathetic. BillZBubb Feb 2016 #71
Ahh. That makes sense then. bobGandolf Feb 2016 #94
If it were a Sanders supporter it'd be intended as a slur and you know it. KittyWampus Feb 2016 #69
Bullshit. You hypocritical fanatics (on both sides) look for any reason BillZBubb Feb 2016 #74
That's their game in a nutshell. nt LittleBlue Feb 2016 #133
LOL, thanks, no harm done, we're all still here! ucrdem Feb 2016 #80
Please go in search of your sense of humor. Vinca Feb 2016 #21
This message was self-deleted by its author ericson00 Feb 2016 #23
Why is that funny? Bernie isn't a Russian or a Communist. Vinca Feb 2016 #24
Do you not recall that the Communist SheilaT Feb 2016 #29
there's a difference between a student trip ericson00 Feb 2016 #30
ok whatever you say wendylaroux Feb 2016 #35
Not according to all those who threw SheilaT Feb 2016 #39
Huh? Fawke Em Feb 2016 #55
him and the Sandinistas??? ericson00 Feb 2016 #58
Sandanistas bad, mujahideen good? Wig Master Feb 2016 #90
LOL. That place where he played basketball with kids? Fawke Em Feb 2016 #122
The sister city thing was designed to relieve cold war tensions and it did help. It A Simple Game Feb 2016 #84
Bernie went there on a sister-city visit when he was mayor of Burlington. kristopher Feb 2016 #123
How about China? tazkcmo Feb 2016 #127
Pretty cool how Communism was able to make Wig Master Feb 2016 #132
What I found weird tazkcmo Feb 2016 #134
I (EYE) visited the Soviet Union for the first time in January 1985. pangaia Feb 2016 #40
WTF is this crap? pinebox Feb 2016 #41
Are the results in? TSIAS Feb 2016 #26
ucrdem is a Clinton supporter and that's sarcasm. n/t JimDandy Feb 2016 #37
He He, Michael Jackson Iliyah Feb 2016 #8
Bernie's campaign is COLLAPSING! It's in FREEFALL! It's IMPLODING!! NurseJackie Feb 2016 #9
LOL at note. Sanders supporter with a sense of humor here. JimDandy Feb 2016 #48
Two sides, same coin elias7 Feb 2016 #49
LOL! treestar Feb 2016 #68
You can't too careful. NurseJackie Feb 2016 #72
Keep dreaming. I don't love her. 840high Feb 2016 #136
Watch and document everything. NowSam Feb 2016 #12
this is the set up restorefreedom Feb 2016 #20
The stadiums full of clear thinking Bernie people agree with you NowSam Feb 2016 #22
somehow, bernie has to prestage people before each primary restorefreedom Feb 2016 #25
AUTOMATED MESSAGE: Results of your Jury Service Lordquinton Feb 2016 #91
Wow. My first flagged post. I'm honored. NowSam Feb 2016 #92
Probably not your first Lordquinton Feb 2016 #96
Ah. Well, Sure is fun here, isn't it? NowSam Feb 2016 #97
What principles? n/t tazkcmo Feb 2016 #128
I'm referring to the voters NowSam Feb 2016 #129
So was I. tazkcmo Feb 2016 #130
Gotta love those shutouts. bvf Feb 2016 #99
Awwww, that's the second one in an hour that's lost it's alert privileges for 24 hours. kath Feb 2016 #114
Wasn't she up 40 last year in New Hampshire? TTUBatfan2008 Feb 2016 #33
i don't remember the numbers from last year restorefreedom Feb 2016 #38
The tide has turned! DCBob Feb 2016 #13
K&R! stonecutter357 Feb 2016 #15
Hillary December 1 +4.7, February 7 -13.2, keep up that downward surge!! nt Jarqui Feb 2016 #18
Monmouth! LOL! They were consistently off by 15+ points in every Iowa poll! CoffeeCat Feb 2016 #31
Thanks, Coffee Cat. You were there...appreciated your reports. libdem4life Feb 2016 #61
A good trend mcar Feb 2016 #32
Sanders will win NH, the point here is for Hillary to lose by the smallest possible margin. Beacool Feb 2016 #34
Pretty much. n/t OhZone Feb 2016 #43
I'm sticking to my prediction: Bernie wins by 15-20 points. morningfog Feb 2016 #42
I think he wins it by 4-8 points. While I believe you're correct about NV JimDandy Feb 2016 #57
Good prediction! nt artislife Feb 2016 #162
She can do like Sanders, claim she won even if she loses. Hoyt Feb 2016 #46
She already did demwing Feb 2016 #88
Hope springs eternal. Surge on you crazy diamond. AtomicKitten Feb 2016 #47
All Bernie needs to win SheenaR Feb 2016 #50
Not at all. Sanders is expected to win NH and win it with room to spare Persondem Feb 2016 #54
Sure thing SheenaR Feb 2016 #103
So the expectation is for her to lose by less than 10? Thanks. Motown_Johnny Feb 2016 #51
HILLARY is SURGING! workinclasszero Feb 2016 #56
Prediction: Bernie will win NH by rusty fender Feb 2016 #73
I'll say 12% demwing Feb 2016 #89
OMG!! Clear the tracks the train is coming! And, avoid the overflowing baggage car. Tierra_y_Libertad Feb 2016 #75
And a Big REC... riversedge Feb 2016 #79
The surge has been stopped... hoosierlib Feb 2016 #82
Heard on msnbc that some of the newer polls leave out cell phones... polichick Feb 2016 #83
That would be incorrect DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2016 #100
707 landline and 203 cell when even boomers like me don't have landlines? You make my point. polichick Feb 2016 #104
I regret that I don't make your point. DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2016 #108
They're "weighted" all right! polichick Feb 2016 #109
You said there was some conspiracy against DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2016 #110
Where did I use the word "conspiracy?" polichick Feb 2016 #111
Here... DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2016 #112
Conspiracy sounds so mystery-novel - imo the Clinton machine is going all out... polichick Feb 2016 #113
If you believe there is fraud in the IA results DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2016 #116
I think you're my new hero, DSB! NastyRiffraff Feb 2016 #121
New Hampshire always has wild swings and voters decide at the last minute Gothmog Feb 2016 #86
Surging? Just like she was supposed to sweep Iowa and the rest of the country? SoapBox Feb 2016 #101
She has a good chance to win NH. Every vote will count! pa28 Feb 2016 #102
Monmouth put her 33 points ahead in Iowa Lorien Feb 2016 #105
Polls always underestimate the Irish-American matriarchy effect. McCamy Taylor Feb 2016 #106
Some Irish-American matriarchs admire people like this: Ken Burch Feb 2016 #125
Bernie has always said it will be close Nanjeanne Feb 2016 #107
I'm as tired of the word 'surge' as I am of some posters trying to sound like Trump: "...yuuuuge..." randome Feb 2016 #115
The ptb trying to make it appear close enough for more thievery? whatchamacallit Feb 2016 #131
I see her numbers bouncing around more than surging Fast Walker 52 Feb 2016 #139
Election day kick. n/t Motown_Johnny Feb 2016 #142
A kick to your kick. Le Taz Hot Feb 2016 #147
I'm loving whoever kicked this back up tonight Arazi Feb 2016 #148
Yeah. I thought the same. bvf Feb 2016 #155
hey, how's that working out for you? kath Feb 2016 #150
Awkward!! Fearless Feb 2016 #152
Tomorrow, we'll be informed that Bernie cheated! closeupready Feb 2016 #163
While normally opposed to necromancy Iggy Knorr Feb 2016 #151
I suggest Hillary follow Blutos advice Kilgore Feb 2016 #153
Hillary got 2/3rds of the vote in Millsfield County!! cascadiance Feb 2016 #154
9:18 PM MSNBC 26% IN: Sanders 58% v. Clinton 40% /nt SDjack Feb 2016 #158
The expectation was for her to lose by less than 10%, right? Motown_Johnny Feb 2016 #160
You were RIGHT!!!! John Poet Feb 2016 #161
Kicking for the lulz frylock Feb 2016 #165
 

Motown_Johnny

(22,308 posts)
52. Yes, we expect her to win. That is now the threshold she must cross
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 04:34 PM
Feb 2016

and anything less than a win for Hillary will be a terrible defeat.



 

Motown_Johnny

(22,308 posts)
149. Sorry that isn't true
Tue Feb 9, 2016, 10:01 PM
Feb 2016







See the trend? October 38%, December 46%, Jan. 20-24 39%, Jan. 26-30 37%, February 44%


Go ahead and plot those. She was actually down from her December number and still way out of reach of hitting 50%. There is no way that there was any trend that had her being in the lead by Tuesday 2/9/2016.










6chars

(3,967 posts)
156. i was talking shorter term trend
Tue Feb 9, 2016, 10:11 PM
Feb 2016

she was down almost 30% in a poll right after Iowa, and then down only 10% in another poll a couple days later. at that rate, she would have been up 10% by now. but anyway, it didn't happen.

 

Motown_Johnny

(22,308 posts)
157. You need to consider some margin of error fluctuations.
Tue Feb 9, 2016, 10:15 PM
Feb 2016

There really wasn't much of a trend there. Her numbers were pretty consistent.




JimDandy

(7,318 posts)
44. Monmouth's last poll in January was Sanders 53 Clinton 39
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 04:14 PM
Feb 2016

So she did move up 3 points in that poll, but not by the 10 the OP is claiming. The average of all the polls is Sanders 53.6 and Clinton 40.4. Maybe the 10 points the OP is talking about is a movement in that avg. More polls will need to continue to show movement in her favor to establish a trend, but a trend is probable, since polls often tighten right up to election day.

treestar

(82,383 posts)
66. Aren't they all corporate owned?
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 04:42 PM
Feb 2016

I thought the oligarchs rigged them. I guess they rigged some for Bernie as he helped them raise some money after all.

 

John Poet

(2,510 posts)
28. Yep, Hillary is into surges...
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 03:42 PM
Feb 2016

The Iraq war surge,
The Afghanistan war surge...

Her campaign is the Democratic NEO-CON surge.

treestar

(82,383 posts)
70. Have to ask you if you are sure you are not a Republican
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 04:45 PM
Feb 2016

I mean you can't possibly hate another Democrat in that kind of way? This is territory I reserve for Cruz and the like.

nolabels

(13,133 posts)
140. Ten or twelve years ago on DU we posted more about issues
Mon Feb 8, 2016, 11:44 AM
Feb 2016

And whole lot less about the personalities proclivities when they were not involved in the situation. Now you come here to read and to share and if you come here with opinion somebody doesn't like they will impugn anybody involved in it and even the poster if a wedge can be applied. It gets really ridiculous sometimes.

Yesterday I was on DU jury and there was some debate as to whether it was polite to to discuss about how to feed a sick pet bird and if that feeding could include cooked, plain waffles and if such food was going to be appropriate. To me it sounds like some kind of crap they would pull of some right wing radio station as something to be used as dead air space filler.

This kind of crap talk is done to distract others from issues at hand and keep more important things off of peoples train of thought , a republican right wing tactic.

 

virgogal

(10,178 posts)
126. Don't be ridiculous. A Democrat can certainly hate another Democrat.
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 09:22 PM
Feb 2016

I remember how I felt about Orval Faubus.

No guilt here.

treestar

(82,383 posts)
138. Not usually on this level
Mon Feb 8, 2016, 11:08 AM
Feb 2016

It is someone you could end up supporting. So why work yourself up that much?

 

Motown_Johnny

(22,308 posts)
159. Hillary Surges to worst defeat in Democratic Presidential Primary History.
Wed Feb 10, 2016, 01:12 AM
Feb 2016

Your hero worship blinds you. There was no surge. She is a terrible candidate running a terrible campaign.

She even has the advantage of a former Democratic President as a spouse who is actively campaigning for her. Bill will not be anywhere near as effective in the General as he is now, and still she is constantly losing ground.

We can't afford to have her as a candidate.








Bleacher Creature

(11,257 posts)
17. Agree with you on timing.
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 03:05 PM
Feb 2016

He's raised too much money from too many supporters not to play it out as far as he can. And he has every right to stay in the race as long as possible to ensure that his message sticks.

But if Clinton heads into NV, SC, and ultimately Super Tuesday with the wind at her back, not much will change the ultimate outcome.

 

KittyWampus

(55,894 posts)
65. Yes, with his PAC's spending for him all the way! Is he going to drag it out
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 04:42 PM
Feb 2016

to the bitter end like Clinton did? Even when it's totally useless and the delegate count is way beyond his reach?

That's the question.

When the primary started I'd have said "no way" would he do that. Now, I'm not too sure.

kcjohn1

(751 posts)
5. Other polls released today
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 02:52 PM
Feb 2016

UMass/7News: Sanders: 57% (+2), Clinton: 40% (-1)
ARG: Sanders: 53% (-), Clinton: 42% (+1)
CNN: Sanders: 58% (-3), Clinton: 35% (+4)

BillZBubb

(10,650 posts)
60. So, if he was a Bernie supporter it's mysogyny?
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 04:39 PM
Feb 2016

But since he's a Hillary supporter it's OK?

Wow. That's pathetic.

BillZBubb

(10,650 posts)
74. Bullshit. You hypocritical fanatics (on both sides) look for any reason
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 04:49 PM
Feb 2016

to flag someone from the other camp. It is sickening and this is a prime example.

Misogyny is funny when it is "sarcasm" and you know it is from a Hillary supporter. If it's from a Bernie supporter it's an unfunny slur and a reason to get someone flagged. When in doubt, flag away.

Pathetic.

Response to Vinca (Reply #21)

Vinca

(50,278 posts)
24. Why is that funny? Bernie isn't a Russian or a Communist.
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 03:39 PM
Feb 2016

Hillary is Bill Clinton's wife, Bill Clinton called himself the "Comeback Kid," Hillary is rising in the New Hampshire polls, therefore the "Bride of" remark.

 

SheilaT

(23,156 posts)
29. Do you not recall that the Communist
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 03:45 PM
Feb 2016

bullshit was thrown at Bill Clinton because HE travelled to the Soviet Union as a college student? It was crap then, and it's crap now.

 

ericson00

(2,707 posts)
30. there's a difference between a student trip
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 03:46 PM
Feb 2016

and actively supporting Soviet-supported Cold War combatants as a real world adult politician as Bernie did.

 

SheilaT

(23,156 posts)
39. Not according to all those who threw
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 04:01 PM
Feb 2016

the "Communist" epithet at Bill.

And a visit to a sister city hardly strikes me as "actively supporting Soviet-supported Cold War combatants as a real world adult politician. . . ."

In 1976 when I took a trip to the Soviet Union -- it was a trip for airline employees, which I was one at the time -- by older brother who had a job that required a security clearance, totally freaked out, claiming I could cost him his job. I told him that if the government or FBI or whoever really thought his sister's trip somehow implicated him in something nefarious, he might want to rethink his career choices.

Oh, and even though he apparently had to go through renewed background checks every few years, I discovered a long time later in another conversation with him that he'd assumed that I'd been questioned about him more than once. Nope. Never. And I'm very easy to find since my surname, the same as his, is somewhat uncommon.

So anyway, a visit to the Soviet Union, even in the heat, so to speak, of the Cold War, does not make one a Communist. And I laugh out loud every time someone tries to suggest that. Cheers.

A Simple Game

(9,214 posts)
84. The sister city thing was designed to relieve cold war tensions and it did help. It
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 05:06 PM
Feb 2016

helped because people traveled to each other's city and saw that they are all humans just like our side is human. Then there are some that want to build walls, do you support someone that wants to build walls?

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
123. Bernie went there on a sister-city visit when he was mayor of Burlington.
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 09:00 PM
Feb 2016

The Soviet flag he has was a gift from the mayor there.

tazkcmo

(7,300 posts)
127. How about China?
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 09:24 PM
Feb 2016

They're communists. Do you buy products made in China? If so, you are financially supporting communists.

 

Wig Master

(95 posts)
132. Pretty cool how Communism was able to make
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 10:28 PM
Feb 2016

things like consumer electronics and truffles affordable to First World workers

tazkcmo

(7,300 posts)
134. What I found weird
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 10:47 PM
Feb 2016

I spent 5 years in the Army learning how to kill Commies and when I got out Walmart dominated and was full Communist Chinese stuff.

pangaia

(24,324 posts)
40. I (EYE) visited the Soviet Union for the first time in January 1985.
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 04:08 PM
Feb 2016

It was freakin' cold.. Leningrad, Moscow, Suzdal.. I LOVED every minute of it. Leningrad, now St Petersburg is one of my favorite cities on earth.. beautiful, wonderful people, cultural capital of Russia, maybe even of all of Europe.

I've been back 3-4 times.... The cuisine has improved immensely! :&gt )

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)
9. Bernie's campaign is COLLAPSING! It's in FREEFALL! It's IMPLODING!!
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 02:56 PM
Feb 2016

Whose "worm is turning," now?




Go, Hillary! We love you!


Note to Jury: Nobody is calling anyone a "worm". It's an expression that means an unexpected change is occurring. No candidate or candidate's fans have been insulted, or attacked, or smeared.

elias7

(4,007 posts)
49. Two sides, same coin
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 04:26 PM
Feb 2016

As if only one side is screaming 25 cents.

This partisanship is useless and to my eyes, equally disgusting on both candidates most rabid "fans"

restorefreedom

(12,655 posts)
20. this is the set up
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 03:30 PM
Feb 2016

they have been manipulating the polls all along.how convenient that she has "closed" a gap that has existed from the beginning...this way, when the nh election is stolen, ...er, when she "wins" they can point and say see? she has been closing the gap for weeks! if bernie has such a hugh turnout that they can't steal it without being obvious, they will point to anything less than a 12 or 15 point loss as "momentum" for hillary

this game is rigged all the way from the bottom to the top.

restorefreedom

(12,655 posts)
25. somehow, bernie has to prestage people before each primary
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 03:40 PM
Feb 2016

we are going to have to keep eyes and ears on everything. they will try and deny him enough delegates for a decisive win at the convention and use supers to steal it for hillary.

Lordquinton

(7,886 posts)
91. AUTOMATED MESSAGE: Results of your Jury Service
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 05:15 PM
Feb 2016

On Sun Feb 7, 2016, 03:52 PM an alert was sent on the following post:

The stadiums full of clear thinking Bernie people agree with you
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1166793

REASON FOR ALERT

This post is disruptive, hurtful, rude, insensitive, over-the-top, or otherwise inappropriate.

ALERTER'S COMMENTS

Conspiracy theory, more appropriate for RW rags, not DU

You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Sun Feb 7, 2016, 04:06 PM, and the Jury voted 0-7 to LEAVE IT.

Juror #1 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #2 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #3 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Blatant alert trolling.
Juror #4 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Don't engage in repartee if you can't accomodate the inevitable results.
Juror #5 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: This is really a reach, for an alert.
Juror #6 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #7 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given

Thank you very much for participating in our Jury system, and we hope you will be able to participate again in the future.

NowSam

(1,252 posts)
92. Wow. My first flagged post. I'm honored.
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 05:19 PM
Feb 2016

So glad that my freedom to voice my opinion was honored. Thank you, Jurors.

Lordquinton

(7,886 posts)
96. Probably not your first
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 05:26 PM
Feb 2016

just the first that's been reported back, I'm sure. But they won't bother you again, at least not today.

NowSam

(1,252 posts)
97. Ah. Well, Sure is fun here, isn't it?
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 05:28 PM
Feb 2016

Albeit extremely disturbing that winning is everything to some, even if every principle they hold dear is subverted.

Thank you, LQ.

NowSam

(1,252 posts)
129. I'm referring to the voters
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 09:33 PM
Feb 2016

and imagine that Hillary voters are also democrats because they care about similar principles as Bernie voters. My point is that Hilary voters seem strangely willing to let go of all of the ideals just for the sake of winning. Just my opinion.

 

bvf

(6,604 posts)
99. Gotta love those shutouts.
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 05:42 PM
Feb 2016

I could have used a different word, but then I'd have to include a jury note, which would be ridiculous.

TTUBatfan2008

(3,623 posts)
33. Wasn't she up 40 last year in New Hampshire?
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 03:48 PM
Feb 2016

Interesting how it went from Bernie down by 40 to the state being his backyard.

restorefreedom

(12,655 posts)
38. i don't remember the numbers from last year
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 03:57 PM
Feb 2016

but name recognition is clearly helping bernie, which was to be expected. her higher numbers from the past were largely due to the fact that many people did not know who bernie is

CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)
31. Monmouth! LOL! They were consistently off by 15+ points in every Iowa poll!
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 03:46 PM
Feb 2016

I guess we'll have to wait and see if Monmouth revamped their ridiculous methodology since Iowa, but if not--look out!

Their Iowa methodology included over-poling women and older voters.

They were always wrong.

Their final poll going into the Iowa caucuses, was off by 15+ points by the actual result.

Nutty stuff.



Beacool

(30,250 posts)
34. Sanders will win NH, the point here is for Hillary to lose by the smallest possible margin.
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 03:48 PM
Feb 2016

No candidate will win every state. Therefore, the ideal situation is to lose by a much smaller margin than predicted. I honestly thought that her chances in IA were slim and she managed a very narrow win, even a tie would have been good. Caucuses notoriously favor the candidate with more feet on the ground and there's no doubt that Sanders attracts more Millenials than Hillary. NH has been good to the Clintons in the past, but Sanders has the home advantage.

I think that Hillary will do fine in NV and SC.

Super Tuesday will be the real barometer of the race. It will give us a more accurate view of the actual standing of both candidates and their path to the nomination.

 

morningfog

(18,115 posts)
42. I'm sticking to my prediction: Bernie wins by 15-20 points.
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 04:11 PM
Feb 2016

A resounding victory with margins that cannot be chalked up to "friendly neighbor." The narrative will be that Bernie is serious and the front runner.

He'll come out of NH with an untainted victory and with the majority of the pledged delegates.

Then onto NV, which has been under polled. I think Bernie could carry the NV caucuses too.

JimDandy

(7,318 posts)
57. I think he wins it by 4-8 points. While I believe you're correct about NV
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 04:38 PM
Feb 2016

being under polled, it is more likely that Bernie will get within 5 points of Hillary, but not carry the state.

 

AtomicKitten

(46,585 posts)
47. Hope springs eternal. Surge on you crazy diamond.
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 04:19 PM
Feb 2016
Over on the Democratic side, Sanders holds 58% among likely Democratic primary voters, well ahead of Clinton's 35%. That's a tighter race than right after Iowa, when the poll suggested Sanders led Clinton by a 2-to-1 margin.

And despite Sanders' far-wider lead, the sense of inevitability among likely Democratic voters that he will win is about the same as the expectations game on the Republican side for Trump: 66% say they think Sanders will win compared with 21% who see a Clinton victory as likely.

The CNN/WMUR poll was conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center by telephone from February 3-6. The poll includes interviews with a random sample of 953 adult residents of New Hampshire, including 406 who say they plan to vote in the Democratic presidential primary and 362 who plan to vote in the Republican presidential primary. For results among the sample of likely Democratic primary voters, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points, it is 5.2 for likely Republican primary voters.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/07/politics/new-hampshire-poll-donald-trump-bernie-sanders/

SheenaR

(2,052 posts)
50. All Bernie needs to win
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 04:31 PM
Feb 2016

Is 50.1 to secure a very strong win like Iowa was for HRC and then he carries more momentum into Nevada

Persondem

(1,936 posts)
54. Not at all. Sanders is expected to win NH and win it with room to spare
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 04:36 PM
Feb 2016

He is already facing uphill battles in almost all the remaining states through March 15. If he doesn't emerge from NH with substantial momentum he is toast.

SheenaR

(2,052 posts)
103. Sure thing
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 05:51 PM
Feb 2016

Sanders was down 40 here early on. A win is a win. I'll take my chances going forward especially with the financial advantage

 

Motown_Johnny

(22,308 posts)
51. So the expectation is for her to lose by less than 10? Thanks.
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 04:33 PM
Feb 2016

The higher the expectations for her, the harder for her to meet them.


Keep up the good work. Bookmarking for after we have results. Sleep well.





 

hoosierlib

(710 posts)
82. The surge has been stopped...
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 05:04 PM
Feb 2016

If you look at the data , her momentum stopped on Thursday...she did her self no favors with her debate performance (hence why is oit of the state trying to shore up the PoC vote). She'll lose by about 10 points and claim a moral victory.

The NH win will give Bernie big headlines, big cash, and more importantly, it will show that Hillary is not invinceable...

polichick

(37,152 posts)
83. Heard on msnbc that some of the newer polls leave out cell phones...
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 05:05 PM
Feb 2016

So I have to wonder if there is an attempt to make people think there's a surge.

Would such a tactic surprise anyone?

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)
100. That would be incorrect
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 05:49 PM
Feb 2016
The total sample of 1,010 likely voters includes 707 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 203 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone, in English.

http://tinyurl.com/gwwahqg



In fact the ARG poll, the U Mass Lowell Poll, and The Suffolk Boston Globe Poll contact landline and cell phone users!


Here is the contact information for MSNBC so you can bring their error to their attention:

http://www.msnbc.com/contact

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)
108. I regret that I don't make your point.
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 06:09 PM
Feb 2016

The responses are weighted to ensure there is no difference in the preferences of landline users and cell phone users.



Here is the contact information for the professor who conducted the poll:


Patrick Murray
Director
Monmouth University Polling Institute
Office: 732-263-5858
Cell: 732-979-6769
Email: pdmurray@monmouth.edu
Web: www.monmouth.edu/polling
Twitter: @PollsterPatrick

He is very good about responding to questions. He has responded to mind. Please contact him with your concern and post it here.

Thank you in advance.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)
110. You said there was some conspiracy against
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 06:20 PM
Feb 2016

You said there was some conspiracy against the Vermont senator that mainfested itself in polling only landline users:



So I have to wonder if there is an attempt to make people think there's a surge.

Would such a tactic surprise anyone?
One corporate party, two faces. Divide the people and take it all!


I then pointed out that the ARG poll, the U Mass Lowell poll, and the Monmouth poll all polled landline and cell phone users.

Rather then you making obscurantist points about polls being weighted when almost all polls are I humbly suggest your time might be better spent reading a book on statistics.

Thank you.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)
112. Here...
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 06:25 PM
Feb 2016
So I have to wonder if there is an attempt to make people think there's a surge.



Well, to be precise you implied it.

polichick

(37,152 posts)
113. Conspiracy sounds so mystery-novel - imo the Clinton machine is going all out...
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 06:33 PM
Feb 2016

to slant public opinion about who's most viable, including fraud in the Iowa results.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)
116. If you believe there is fraud in the IA results
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 06:40 PM
Feb 2016
Conspiracy sounds so mystery-novel - imo the Clinton machine is going all out...
to slant public opinion about who's most viable, including fraud in the Iowa results.


If you believe there is fraud in the IA results here is the contact information for the Iowa Attorney General:

Tom Miller
Office of the Attorney General of Iowa
Hoover State Office Building
1305 E. Walnut Street
Des Moines IA 50319
Phone: 515-281-5044'
Toll-free: 800-373-5044



so you can contact him with your concerns.

McCamy Taylor

(19,240 posts)
106. Polls always underestimate the Irish-American matriarchy effect.
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 06:05 PM
Feb 2016

It's why Clinton won New Hampshire in 2008. Any state with a sizable Irish-American population will have a greater women turning out to vote for women's issues than pollsters expect, because Irish-American women are used to looking out for themselves in the face of the patriarchy (religious and government). Not sure that Bernie's "socialism" will buy him much cred as a matriarch, but it might.

 

randome

(34,845 posts)
115. I'm as tired of the word 'surge' as I am of some posters trying to sound like Trump: "...yuuuuge..."
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 06:37 PM
Feb 2016

[hr][font color="blue"][center]All things in moderation, including moderation.[/center][/font][hr]

 

bvf

(6,604 posts)
155. Yeah. I thought the same.
Tue Feb 9, 2016, 10:06 PM
Feb 2016

If she loses by fewer than thirty points, she wins, or something like that. I'm probably getting that wrong, except beer.


 

John Poet

(2,510 posts)
161. You were RIGHT!!!!
Wed Feb 10, 2016, 01:15 AM
Feb 2016

Hillary SURGED to a record-breaking loss in New Hampshire!

NO Democratic candidate has EVER lost NH by such a high percentage!


FEEL THE BERN!!!!

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