2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHillary Surging in New Hampshire
Despite Bernie's having a sizable lead in New Hampshire, Hillary Rodham Clinton is surging there: polls done in the last week have shown Hillary narrow the gap considerably, from often being down 20+ points in the past few weeks to now around 10.
http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/2114e68d-b5a1-46c5-a375-2d112a71d050.pdf
See for yourselves
treestar
(82,383 posts)6chars
(3,967 posts)Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)and anything less than a win for Hillary will be a terrible defeat.
KittyWampus
(55,894 posts)reformist2
(9,841 posts)Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)Did the rate change?
6chars
(3,967 posts)Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)6chars
(3,967 posts)at that rate, she would have been in the lead by Tuesday.
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)See the trend? October 38%, December 46%, Jan. 20-24 39%, Jan. 26-30 37%, February 44%
Go ahead and plot those. She was actually down from her December number and still way out of reach of hitting 50%. There is no way that there was any trend that had her being in the lead by Tuesday 2/9/2016.
6chars
(3,967 posts)she was down almost 30% in a poll right after Iowa, and then down only 10% in another poll a couple days later. at that rate, she would have been up 10% by now. but anyway, it didn't happen.
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)There really wasn't much of a trend there. Her numbers were pretty consistent.
JimDandy
(7,318 posts)So she did move up 3 points in that poll, but not by the 10 the OP is claiming. The average of all the polls is Sanders 53.6 and Clinton 40.4. Maybe the 10 points the OP is talking about is a movement in that avg. More polls will need to continue to show movement in her favor to establish a trend, but a trend is probable, since polls often tighten right up to election day.
treestar
(82,383 posts)I thought the oligarchs rigged them. I guess they rigged some for Bernie as he helped them raise some money after all.
JimDandy
(7,318 posts)gyroscope
(1,443 posts)they were off by 15 in the Iowa poll
MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)Plus 60% are completely undecided. Lots of wiggle room there!
blue neen
(12,322 posts)Maybe I read it wrong.
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)John Poet
(2,510 posts)The Iraq war surge,
The Afghanistan war surge...
Her campaign is the Democratic NEO-CON surge.
elias49
(4,259 posts)Thankfully dinner isn't for a couple of hours.
KittyWampus
(55,894 posts)elias49
(4,259 posts)It's something you can't control: aversion.
treestar
(82,383 posts)I mean you can't possibly hate another Democrat in that kind of way? This is territory I reserve for Cruz and the like.
nolabels
(13,133 posts)treestar
(82,383 posts)nolabels
(13,133 posts)And whole lot less about the personalities proclivities when they were not involved in the situation. Now you come here to read and to share and if you come here with opinion somebody doesn't like they will impugn anybody involved in it and even the poster if a wedge can be applied. It gets really ridiculous sometimes.
Yesterday I was on DU jury and there was some debate as to whether it was polite to to discuss about how to feed a sick pet bird and if that feeding could include cooked, plain waffles and if such food was going to be appropriate. To me it sounds like some kind of crap they would pull of some right wing radio station as something to be used as dead air space filler.
This kind of crap talk is done to distract others from issues at hand and keep more important things off of peoples train of thought , a republican right wing tactic.
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Sid
elias49
(4,259 posts)I'm in NH and I'm registered as an Independent.
virgogal
(10,178 posts)I remember how I felt about Orval Faubus.
No guilt here.
treestar
(82,383 posts)It is someone you could end up supporting. So why work yourself up that much?
Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)Hortensis
(58,785 posts)Come on. It's very flattering.
elias49
(4,259 posts)NastyRiffraff
(12,448 posts)you comment on someone else's looks? Seriously?
elias49
(4,259 posts)Making light...
NastyRiffraff
(12,448 posts)Hard to tell sometimes, particularly online. Mea culpa.
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)Your hero worship blinds you. There was no surge. She is a terrible candidate running a terrible campaign.
She even has the advantage of a former Democratic President as a spouse who is actively campaigning for her. Bill will not be anywhere near as effective in the General as he is now, and still she is constantly losing ground.
We can't afford to have her as a candidate.
Bleacher Creature
(11,257 posts)Cheese Sandwich
(9,086 posts)Bleacher Creature
(11,257 posts)He's raised too much money from too many supporters not to play it out as far as he can. And he has every right to stay in the race as long as possible to ensure that his message sticks.
But if Clinton heads into NV, SC, and ultimately Super Tuesday with the wind at her back, not much will change the ultimate outcome.
KittyWampus
(55,894 posts)to the bitter end like Clinton did? Even when it's totally useless and the delegate count is way beyond his reach?
That's the question.
When the primary started I'd have said "no way" would he do that. Now, I'm not too sure.
treestar
(82,383 posts)For Hillary!
kcjohn1
(751 posts)UMass/7News: Sanders: 57% (+2), Clinton: 40% (-1)
ARG: Sanders: 53% (-), Clinton: 42% (+1)
CNN: Sanders: 58% (-3), Clinton: 35% (+4)
n/t
ljm2002
(10,751 posts)72DejaVu
(1,545 posts)Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)We should be raising expectations for Hillary.
MissDeeds
(7,499 posts)840high
(17,196 posts)ucrdem
(15,512 posts)never mind
ericson00
(2,707 posts)reported
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)ericson00
(2,707 posts)I didn't realize that you were a Hillary supporter. My bad.
BillZBubb
(10,650 posts)But since he's a Hillary supporter it's OK?
Wow. That's pathetic.
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)treestar
(82,383 posts)if it's from a Hillary supporter. LOL.
BillZBubb
(10,650 posts)bobGandolf
(871 posts)I was scratching my head about that too.
KittyWampus
(55,894 posts)BillZBubb
(10,650 posts)to flag someone from the other camp. It is sickening and this is a prime example.
Misogyny is funny when it is "sarcasm" and you know it is from a Hillary supporter. If it's from a Bernie supporter it's an unfunny slur and a reason to get someone flagged. When in doubt, flag away.
Pathetic.
LittleBlue
(10,362 posts)ucrdem
(15,512 posts)Vinca
(50,278 posts)Response to Vinca (Reply #21)
ericson00 This message was self-deleted by its author.
Vinca
(50,278 posts)Hillary is Bill Clinton's wife, Bill Clinton called himself the "Comeback Kid," Hillary is rising in the New Hampshire polls, therefore the "Bride of" remark.
SheilaT
(23,156 posts)bullshit was thrown at Bill Clinton because HE travelled to the Soviet Union as a college student? It was crap then, and it's crap now.
ericson00
(2,707 posts)and actively supporting Soviet-supported Cold War combatants as a real world adult politician as Bernie did.
wendylaroux
(2,925 posts)SheilaT
(23,156 posts)the "Communist" epithet at Bill.
And a visit to a sister city hardly strikes me as "actively supporting Soviet-supported Cold War combatants as a real world adult politician. . . ."
In 1976 when I took a trip to the Soviet Union -- it was a trip for airline employees, which I was one at the time -- by older brother who had a job that required a security clearance, totally freaked out, claiming I could cost him his job. I told him that if the government or FBI or whoever really thought his sister's trip somehow implicated him in something nefarious, he might want to rethink his career choices.
Oh, and even though he apparently had to go through renewed background checks every few years, I discovered a long time later in another conversation with him that he'd assumed that I'd been questioned about him more than once. Nope. Never. And I'm very easy to find since my surname, the same as his, is somewhat uncommon.
So anyway, a visit to the Soviet Union, even in the heat, so to speak, of the Cold War, does not make one a Communist. And I laugh out loud every time someone tries to suggest that. Cheers.
He went to Burlington's sister city as mayor. How is that supporting Cold War combatants?
ericson00
(2,707 posts)Wig Master
(95 posts)Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)Such a Communist thing to do.
A Simple Game
(9,214 posts)helped because people traveled to each other's city and saw that they are all humans just like our side is human. Then there are some that want to build walls, do you support someone that wants to build walls?
kristopher
(29,798 posts)The Soviet flag he has was a gift from the mayor there.
tazkcmo
(7,300 posts)They're communists. Do you buy products made in China? If so, you are financially supporting communists.
Wig Master
(95 posts)things like consumer electronics and truffles affordable to First World workers
tazkcmo
(7,300 posts)I spent 5 years in the Army learning how to kill Commies and when I got out Walmart dominated and was full Communist Chinese stuff.
pangaia
(24,324 posts)It was freakin' cold.. Leningrad, Moscow, Suzdal.. I LOVED every minute of it. Leningrad, now St Petersburg is one of my favorite cities on earth.. beautiful, wonderful people, cultural capital of Russia, maybe even of all of Europe.
I've been back 3-4 times.... The cuisine has improved immensely! :> )
pinebox
(5,761 posts)TSIAS
(14,689 posts)In terms of misogyny, I have seen far worse in my 31 years.
JimDandy
(7,318 posts)Iliyah
(25,111 posts)K & R
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Whose "worm is turning," now?
Go, Hillary! We love you!
Note to Jury: Nobody is calling anyone a "worm". It's an expression that means an unexpected change is occurring. No candidate or candidate's fans have been insulted, or attacked, or smeared.
JimDandy
(7,318 posts)elias7
(4,007 posts)As if only one side is screaming 25 cents.
This partisanship is useless and to my eyes, equally disgusting on both candidates most rabid "fans"
Love your note to jury lines!
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)840high
(17,196 posts)NowSam
(1,252 posts)Manu shenanigans ahead.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)they have been manipulating the polls all along.how convenient that she has "closed" a gap that has existed from the beginning...this way, when the nh election is stolen, ...er, when she "wins" they can point and say see? she has been closing the gap for weeks! if bernie has such a hugh turnout that they can't steal it without being obvious, they will point to anything less than a 12 or 15 point loss as "momentum" for hillary
this game is rigged all the way from the bottom to the top.
NowSam
(1,252 posts)Can we allow another coup?
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)we are going to have to keep eyes and ears on everything. they will try and deny him enough delegates for a decisive win at the convention and use supers to steal it for hillary.
Lordquinton
(7,886 posts)On Sun Feb 7, 2016, 03:52 PM an alert was sent on the following post:
The stadiums full of clear thinking Bernie people agree with you
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1166793
REASON FOR ALERT
This post is disruptive, hurtful, rude, insensitive, over-the-top, or otherwise inappropriate.
ALERTER'S COMMENTS
Conspiracy theory, more appropriate for RW rags, not DU
You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Sun Feb 7, 2016, 04:06 PM, and the Jury voted 0-7 to LEAVE IT.
Juror #1 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #2 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #3 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Blatant alert trolling.
Juror #4 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Don't engage in repartee if you can't accomodate the inevitable results.
Juror #5 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: This is really a reach, for an alert.
Juror #6 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #7 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Thank you very much for participating in our Jury system, and we hope you will be able to participate again in the future.
NowSam
(1,252 posts)So glad that my freedom to voice my opinion was honored. Thank you, Jurors.
Lordquinton
(7,886 posts)just the first that's been reported back, I'm sure. But they won't bother you again, at least not today.
NowSam
(1,252 posts)Albeit extremely disturbing that winning is everything to some, even if every principle they hold dear is subverted.
Thank you, LQ.
tazkcmo
(7,300 posts)NowSam
(1,252 posts)and imagine that Hillary voters are also democrats because they care about similar principles as Bernie voters. My point is that Hilary voters seem strangely willing to let go of all of the ideals just for the sake of winning. Just my opinion.
tazkcmo
(7,300 posts)And I agree with you. Thus my question.
bvf
(6,604 posts)I could have used a different word, but then I'd have to include a jury note, which would be ridiculous.
kath
(10,565 posts)TTUBatfan2008
(3,623 posts)Interesting how it went from Bernie down by 40 to the state being his backyard.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)but name recognition is clearly helping bernie, which was to be expected. her higher numbers from the past were largely due to the fact that many people did not know who bernie is
DCBob
(24,689 posts)stonecutter357
(12,697 posts)Jarqui
(10,126 posts)CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)I guess we'll have to wait and see if Monmouth revamped their ridiculous methodology since Iowa, but if not--look out!
Their Iowa methodology included over-poling women and older voters.
They were always wrong.
Their final poll going into the Iowa caucuses, was off by 15+ points by the actual result.
Nutty stuff.
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)mcar
(42,334 posts)Beacool
(30,250 posts)No candidate will win every state. Therefore, the ideal situation is to lose by a much smaller margin than predicted. I honestly thought that her chances in IA were slim and she managed a very narrow win, even a tie would have been good. Caucuses notoriously favor the candidate with more feet on the ground and there's no doubt that Sanders attracts more Millenials than Hillary. NH has been good to the Clintons in the past, but Sanders has the home advantage.
I think that Hillary will do fine in NV and SC.
Super Tuesday will be the real barometer of the race. It will give us a more accurate view of the actual standing of both candidates and their path to the nomination.
OhZone
(3,212 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)A resounding victory with margins that cannot be chalked up to "friendly neighbor." The narrative will be that Bernie is serious and the front runner.
He'll come out of NH with an untainted victory and with the majority of the pledged delegates.
Then onto NV, which has been under polled. I think Bernie could carry the NV caucuses too.
JimDandy
(7,318 posts)being under polled, it is more likely that Bernie will get within 5 points of Hillary, but not carry the state.
artislife
(9,497 posts)Hoyt
(54,770 posts)demwing
(16,916 posts)Follow the car with the IA plates HRC2016
AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)And despite Sanders' far-wider lead, the sense of inevitability among likely Democratic voters that he will win is about the same as the expectations game on the Republican side for Trump: 66% say they think Sanders will win compared with 21% who see a Clinton victory as likely.
The CNN/WMUR poll was conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center by telephone from February 3-6. The poll includes interviews with a random sample of 953 adult residents of New Hampshire, including 406 who say they plan to vote in the Democratic presidential primary and 362 who plan to vote in the Republican presidential primary. For results among the sample of likely Democratic primary voters, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points, it is 5.2 for likely Republican primary voters.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/07/politics/new-hampshire-poll-donald-trump-bernie-sanders/
SheenaR
(2,052 posts)Is 50.1 to secure a very strong win like Iowa was for HRC and then he carries more momentum into Nevada
Persondem
(1,936 posts)He is already facing uphill battles in almost all the remaining states through March 15. If he doesn't emerge from NH with substantial momentum he is toast.
SheenaR
(2,052 posts)Sanders was down 40 here early on. A win is a win. I'll take my chances going forward especially with the financial advantage
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)The higher the expectations for her, the harder for her to meet them.
Keep up the good work. Bookmarking for after we have results. Sleep well.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)rusty fender
(3,428 posts)15-20% points.
Bernie has the momentum right now, not Hillary.
demwing
(16,916 posts)just so Bernie can over perform
Tierra_y_Libertad
(50,414 posts)riversedge
(70,242 posts)hoosierlib
(710 posts)If you look at the data , her momentum stopped on Thursday...she did her self no favors with her debate performance (hence why is oit of the state trying to shore up the PoC vote). She'll lose by about 10 points and claim a moral victory.
The NH win will give Bernie big headlines, big cash, and more importantly, it will show that Hillary is not invinceable...
polichick
(37,152 posts)So I have to wonder if there is an attempt to make people think there's a surge.
Would such a tactic surprise anyone?
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)http://tinyurl.com/gwwahqg
In fact the ARG poll, the U Mass Lowell Poll, and The Suffolk Boston Globe Poll contact landline and cell phone users!
Here is the contact information for MSNBC so you can bring their error to their attention:
http://www.msnbc.com/contact
polichick
(37,152 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)The responses are weighted to ensure there is no difference in the preferences of landline users and cell phone users.
Here is the contact information for the professor who conducted the poll:
Director
Monmouth University Polling Institute
Office: 732-263-5858
Cell: 732-979-6769
Email: pdmurray@monmouth.edu
Web: www.monmouth.edu/polling
Twitter: @PollsterPatrick
He is very good about responding to questions. He has responded to mind. Please contact him with your concern and post it here.
Thank you in advance.
polichick
(37,152 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)You said there was some conspiracy against the Vermont senator that mainfested itself in polling only landline users:
Would such a tactic surprise anyone?
One corporate party, two faces. Divide the people and take it all!
I then pointed out that the ARG poll, the U Mass Lowell poll, and the Monmouth poll all polled landline and cell phone users.
Rather then you making obscurantist points about polls being weighted when almost all polls are I humbly suggest your time might be better spent reading a book on statistics.
Thank you.
polichick
(37,152 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Well, to be precise you implied it.
polichick
(37,152 posts)to slant public opinion about who's most viable, including fraud in the Iowa results.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)to slant public opinion about who's most viable, including fraud in the Iowa results.
If you believe there is fraud in the IA results here is the contact information for the Iowa Attorney General:
Office of the Attorney General of Iowa
Hoover State Office Building
1305 E. Walnut Street
Des Moines IA 50319
Phone: 515-281-5044'
Toll-free: 800-373-5044
so you can contact him with your concerns.
NastyRiffraff
(12,448 posts)Nicely done, twice
Gothmog
(145,321 posts)SoapBox
(18,791 posts)pa28
(6,145 posts)Lorien
(31,935 posts)How did that work out for her?
McCamy Taylor
(19,240 posts)It's why Clinton won New Hampshire in 2008. Any state with a sizable Irish-American population will have a greater women turning out to vote for women's issues than pollsters expect, because Irish-American women are used to looking out for themselves in the face of the patriarchy (religious and government). Not sure that Bernie's "socialism" will buy him much cred as a matriarch, but it might.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)Nanjeanne
(4,961 posts)I think many contests will be.
randome
(34,845 posts)[hr][font color="blue"][center]All things in moderation, including moderation.[/center][/font][hr]
whatchamacallit
(15,558 posts)Fast Walker 52
(7,723 posts)same for Sanders. There's no clear trend.
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)Le Taz Hot
(22,271 posts)Arazi
(6,829 posts)So many predictions, so much fail
bvf
(6,604 posts)If she loses by fewer than thirty points, she wins, or something like that. I'm probably getting that wrong, except beer.
kath
(10,565 posts)Hmmmmm??
Fearless
(18,421 posts)closeupready
(29,503 posts)Iggy Knorr
(247 posts)in this case,
Kilgore
(1,733 posts)cascadiance
(19,537 posts)Yes, 2 of the 3 votes cast there!
SDjack
(1,448 posts)Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)So much for that.
John Poet
(2,510 posts)Hillary SURGED to a record-breaking loss in New Hampshire!
NO Democratic candidate has EVER lost NH by such a high percentage!
FEEL THE BERN!!!!