2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHillary Clinton has been down by 30% in the NH polls. If she loses by 20%, then it is a Hillary WIN.
The respectable CNN/WMUR had her losing to Bernie Sanders nearly by 30%. There have been other polls that have been showing similar numbers. If Hillary Clinton manages to close the gap and only lose by 20%, then she has effectively won NH. It would be a historic victory and she would be the new comeback kid.
If Bernie Sander only manages to win by 15%, this would be a devastating loss for him. I'm not sure he would recover from such a stinging loss. NH is Bernie's second home state. Almost half the voting electorate are independents. Truthfully, he should be winning by more than 40%.
villager
(26,001 posts)ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)The turnout was over 170,000 and he still lost.
villager
(26,001 posts)Gotcha.
John Poet
(2,510 posts)behind by only 0.2 percent, way below your 20 percent requirement here....
I do presume you're being deliberately ridiculous here,
as opposed to being unintentionally ridiculous....
Do we got wheels on those goalposts now?
Maybe you should claim that Hillary wins if she keeps it within 30 percent,
just to be safe. Nah, 40-- within 40 percent, that way you can be sure. I think.
6chars
(3,967 posts)we know why it happened. just shake her hand Bernie!
and by 49.75%
Dustlawyer
(10,497 posts)By the time its over, whatever Bernie wins by, it will still be a Hillary win.
Fumesucker
(45,851 posts)ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)frylock
(34,825 posts)AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)Wig Master
(95 posts)Cheese Sandwich
(9,086 posts)They know her better than anyone.
ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)TTUBatfan2008
(3,623 posts)...less than a year ago?
ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)The polls have Bernie up by 30% right now. If Hillary manages to close the gap and lose by 20%, then she wins. She is the new comeback kid.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)If people were not paying attention, they'd go with their favored son. Not give Clinton a 50% lead.
ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)Don't shoot the messenger.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)And it features very prominently in your claims.
Go Vols
(5,902 posts)with those numbers.
cyberswede
(26,117 posts)lob1
(3,820 posts)beam me up scottie
(57,349 posts)ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)beam me up scottie
(57,349 posts)Where's your evidence for your claim?
ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)beam me up scottie
(57,349 posts)What happened, did NH disown her?
Where's your evidence that he's the favoured son?
ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)If Hillary manages to close the gap and lose by 20% that is a win.
beam me up scottie
(57,349 posts)Math is hard. A win means the candidate received the majority of votes.
bkkyosemite
(5,792 posts)win with 20% for Bernie. Give me a break you can't have it both ways!
frylock
(34,825 posts)I see this term used a lot by 'baggers trying to deflect criticism of GWB. Fascinating.
cali
(114,904 posts)LoveIsNow
(356 posts)Rather than claiming to know all about their state and telling them they're wrong for disagreeing?
6chars
(3,967 posts)I think they pretty much dislike both Vermont and Massachusetts, although they root for the Boston teams.
beam me up scottie
(57,349 posts)karynnj
(59,504 posts)cali
(114,904 posts)If Bernie Wins NH, it will be despite his coming from VT, not because of it
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511171592
elias49
(4,259 posts)between NH and VT.
I expect you know that, but I'll give you an A- for effort.
6chars
(3,967 posts)he was born and raised in Manchestah where his father was a beloved deacon and he was both star quarterback and High School Prom King of 1959. favorite son is an understatement.
frylock
(34,825 posts)The fuck?
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)frylock
(34,825 posts)frylock
(34,825 posts)but he's New Hampshire's favorite son!
frylock
(34,825 posts)itsrobert
(14,157 posts)suggest Hillary is going to lose by 40%.
We shall see.
Avalux
(35,015 posts)jeff47
(26,549 posts)Or does your claim only hold when it benefits Clinton?
You know, Clinton had a 50% lead in NH back in August, and has 93% of the superdelegates....shouldn't your same metric be talking about that massive loss of support for Clinton?
ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)Turnout was over 170k and he still lost.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)There's got to be a whole lot of mental gymnastics going on to pretend that makes sense.
ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)If Hillary manages to close the gap and loses only by 20% then it's a win.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)I'll have to make sure you never do the math when splitting the check. You'd have me paying $6,000 for a $6 meal.
ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)jeff47
(26,549 posts)frylock
(34,825 posts)It may be a lack of nutrients.
cali
(114,904 posts)That so cute.
lob1
(3,820 posts)HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)I'm sure her plummeting poll #s are causing great desparation among her supporters. If it makes them feel good to call a 20 point loss a win, then let them pretend. OTOH, media will be calling 20 points a devastating loss.
randome
(34,845 posts)So, yes, it does make sense that if she narrows the loss, it will be somewhat good news for her.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]You have to play the game to find out why you're playing the game. -Existenz[/center][/font][hr]
frylock
(34,825 posts)Orsino
(37,428 posts)And whoever wins the most delegates wins bigger.
thereismore
(13,326 posts)ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)The turnout was over 170k and he still lost.
thereismore
(13,326 posts)cali
(114,904 posts)LondonReign2
(5,213 posts)Last edited Tue Feb 9, 2016, 04:07 PM - Edit history (1)
Wilms
(26,795 posts)ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)magical thyme
(14,881 posts)same time frame.
Hillary has to lose by single digits to even begin to think she is closing the gap.
ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)by 30%. If Hillary Clinton manages to lose by 20% then it's a major win. She's the new comeback kid.
DUbeornot2be
(367 posts)...if Hillary loses by 20% it shows that voters don't support a shill for the corporations, who continues to disrespect potential voters with a campaign of misdirection and lies...
Yeah, that's what a 20 point drubbing means.
And they accuse us of believing in unicorns...
cali
(114,904 posts)magical thyme
(14,881 posts)Lowell 7/UMass has since corrected back to +17, which makes 8, with a single one near +30 (down to +26).
On the other hand, ARG, Emerson, Monmouth, Boston Herald, Boston Globe, WBUR, Gravis range from +7 to +16.
Only NBC/WSJ/Maris comes in at +20.
Throwing out the upper and lower outliers brings Bernie +10 - +17.
Somebody is spinning hard here, and it ain't me.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html#polls
TheBlackAdder
(28,211 posts)litlbilly
(2,227 posts)ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)The turnout was over 170k and he still lost.
cali
(114,904 posts)Dawgs
(14,755 posts)Cuz it sounds like bullshit.
sadoldgirl
(3,431 posts)as BC's. Beautifully Orwellian!
Lies = truth!
Nanjeanne
(4,975 posts)[URL=.html][IMG][/IMG][/URL]
thucythucy
(8,086 posts)Just checking to be sure.
ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)thucythucy
(8,086 posts)hobbit709
(41,694 posts)Go Vols
(5,902 posts)you are not the winner. Fact.
6chars
(3,967 posts)lumberjack_jeff
(33,224 posts)cali
(114,904 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)Logical
(22,457 posts)choie
(4,111 posts)She's such an underdog! (just in case it's needed)
closeupready
(29,503 posts)litlbilly
(2,227 posts)HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)Or comedy. Probably both.
Matariki
(18,775 posts)Warren Stupidity
(48,181 posts)NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)beam me up scottie
(57,349 posts)NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)beam me up scottie
(57,349 posts)cali
(114,904 posts)a virtual tie, but that isn't close to the bullshit in the op
Jarqui
(10,130 posts)leftupnorth
(886 posts)But I could be wrong about that. Pretty sure I'm not.
JimDandy
(7,318 posts):poundit:
floriduck
(2,262 posts)cali
(114,904 posts)love, love it. Fun to watch. Delicious to see such desperation.
Yummy.
ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)cali
(114,904 posts)Killing a bullshit Clinton meme: Bernie Sanders Is No Favorite Son
Hillary Clintons campaign says that shes losing New Hampshire because Bernie Sanders, being from neighboring Vermont, is a favorite son in the state. But according to reporters and editors at four of the states top news outlets, thats a load of crock and would make most New Hampshire stomachs turn. In fact, most New Hampshirites probably didnt know who Bernie Sanders was until he launched his presidential campaign. And bobcat-killing and the opiate epidemic are more likely to be at the top of their list of concerns than, say, immigration.
Those are just a few of things the pundits and candidates are getting wrong about New Hampshire as we head into its first-in-the-nation primary on Tuesday. In a roundtable interview moderated by Politicos senior politics editor Charlie Mahtesian, five of the journalists who follow New Hampshire politics most closely revealed more about what's really going on on-the-ground in the Granite State and what we in Washington are missing.
Charlie Mahtesian, Politico: One of the things weve heard is a lockstep message coming out of the Clinton campthis idea that Hillary Clintons not going to do that well because its Bernies backyard. Theyre downplaying expectations since shes trailing in the polls. My question, though, is how well does New Hampshire actually know Bernie? Is it the case where hes the third senator from New Hampshire, as Clinton would like to believe? Is he known in the Connecticut River Valley, known in southern New Hampshire?
Roger Carroll, Nashua Telegraph: I was watching CBS news the other night, there was a woman doing standup in front of a bridge in Manchester. She said that Sanders is practically a favorite son here in New Hampshire. You know what, that is a load of crock. Theres no other way tothat is, I mean, Im sitting there, you know how a dog turns its head when it doesnt quite get something? .
Look. People in the Connecticut River Valley knew who he was. They knew who he was when he was mayor of Burlington, because Channel 3 has a really strong signal that beams in. But you go 15 miles to the east and nobody knew who he was, he was 50 points behind at this time last year. So, as Colonel Potter from MASH used to say: Horse hockey!
<snip>
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/02/new-hampshire-primary-political-reporters-213604
ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)cali
(114,904 posts)If Bernie Wins NH, it will be despite his coming from VT, not because of it
Last edited Mon Feb 8, 2016, 05:58 PM -
Edit history (3)
I'm a Vermonter. And boy is this spot on- except for the showering stuff.
HANOVER, N.H. Hillary Clintons campaign maintains that Senator Bernie Sanders could win New Hampshires primary on Tuesday because he comes from neighboring Vermont. As Bill Clinton told NBC News: Nobody from a state bordering New Hampshire has ever lost a Democratic primary to a non-incumbent president.
But as natives of New Hampshire and Vermont are quick to note, if Mr. Sanders wins New Hampshire, it may be in spite if coming from Vermont, not because of it.
From afar, Vermont and New Hampshire look like two peas in a pod, but from the Birkenstock outlets in Vermont to the Harley-Davidson dealers in New Hampshire, these two states on opposite sides of the Connecticut River, could not be more different.
<snip>
Comparing and contrasting these two states has been a parlor game in New England for decades, if not centuries. It has produced academic studies and irreverent analyses, like one that boiled down the differences to this: Basically, if you live in New England and want to join a militia, then New Hampshire is for you. But if you want to skip showering and listen to NPR, then head on up to Vermont.
<snip>
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/08/us/more-than-a-riverseparates-bernie-sanderss-state-from-primarys.html?rref=collection%2Fnewseventcollection%2FPresidential%20Election%202016&action=click&contentCollection=Politics&module=Collection®ion=Marginalia&src=me&version=newsevent&pgtype=article&_r=0
ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)cali
(114,904 posts)Deflect. Spin. Deflect. Spin.
Rinse and repeat.
That is your shtick
ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)cali
(114,904 posts)frylock
(34,825 posts)You're wrong.
m-lekktor
(3,675 posts)He isn't reading your responses, too many words for him!
JeffHead
(1,186 posts)ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)The turnout was over 170k and he still lost. nt
cali
(114,904 posts)Aerows
(39,961 posts)Is a big win for Hillary. Now Bernie has to beat her by 30% to "win".
I'm with the person (forget who) requested that Hillary supporters announce at the beginning of each day where the goal posts are for that day.
It would save time and confusion for everyone.
ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)The turnout in Iowa was above 170k. Hillary still won.
k8conant
(3,030 posts)as did Marco Rubio.
ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)I am responding with the facts. nt
k8conant
(3,030 posts)lob1
(3,820 posts)ridiculous claim. You haven't done that. If you can't provide a link, we might think you're making crap up.
frylock
(34,825 posts)cali
(114,904 posts)Aerows
(39,961 posts)59.6% to 38.7%?
Still think he bombed? Because that looks like a 20.9% win to me.
Let me know where the goal posts are going to be tomorrow!
cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)cali
(114,904 posts)They were tied in November.
Spinning like a dervish, PTBL.
ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)If Hillary manages to close the gap to 20% then that is a win for her. Truthfully, Bernie should be winning by 40. He has all the advantages.
cali
(114,904 posts)That's just what you do.
ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)R. P. McMurphy
(836 posts)The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,835 posts)If it isn't, it's very, very sad.
MrMickeysMom
(20,453 posts)It's VERY sad. I hope they feel better soon.
senz
(11,945 posts)I wanted to warn you to "undo" your vote on that loyalty test poll but wisdom prevailed and the OP was deleted.
So we all live to comment another day on DU.
MrMickeysMom
(20,453 posts)I believe they can kiss my sweet bippy!
senz
(11,945 posts)and then I changed my comment to you.
lol, they'll have to kiss your sweet bippy some other day!
Kall
(615 posts)cali
(114,904 posts)If Bernie Wins NH, it will be despite his coming from VT, not because of it
Last edited Mon Feb 8, 2016, 05:58 PM -
Edit history (3)
I'm a Vermonter. And boy is this spot on- except for the showering stuff.
HANOVER, N.H. Hillary Clintons campaign maintains that Senator Bernie Sanders could win New Hampshires primary on Tuesday because he comes from neighboring Vermont. As Bill Clinton told NBC News: Nobody from a state bordering New Hampshire has ever lost a Democratic primary to a non-incumbent president.
But as natives of New Hampshire and Vermont are quick to note, if Mr. Sanders wins New Hampshire, it may be in spite if coming from Vermont, not because of it.
From afar, Vermont and New Hampshire look like two peas in a pod, but from the Birkenstock outlets in Vermont to the Harley-Davidson dealers in New Hampshire, these two states on opposite sides of the Connecticut River, could not be more different.
<snip>
Comparing and contrasting these two states has been a parlor game in New England for decades, if not centuries. It has produced academic studies and irreverent analyses, like one that boiled down the differences to this: Basically, if you live in New England and want to join a militia, then New Hampshire is for you. But if you want to skip showering and listen to NPR, then head on up to Vermont.
<snip>
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/08/us/more-than-a-riverseparates-bernie-sanderss-state-from-primarys.html?rref=collection%2Fnewseventcollection%2FPresidential%20Election%202016&action=click&contentCollection=Politics&module=Collection®ion=Marginalia&src=me&version=newsevent&pgtype=article&_r=0
TwilightGardener
(46,416 posts)hey, good luck, rest of DU, I can't even. There's no shaming the shameless.
LAS14
(13,783 posts)My apologies for breaking into this topic, but I don't have enough replies to make a new post. What does nt or n/t mean? I see it at the end of lots of titles.
GREAT WEBSITE!!! SUCH A RELIEF given the penchant for negative Hillary stories in the media.
FSogol
(45,525 posts)heading.
Go Vols
(5,902 posts)but nt is text.
LSK
(36,846 posts)What the average voter in future states will only see is the headline of a huge Bernie win.
Punkingal
(9,522 posts)Even somewhat pathetic.
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,122 posts)Bernie & Elizabeth 2016!!!
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,835 posts)because they lost by less than 20%.
cali
(114,904 posts)That's rare. Quite the achievement.
ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)cali
(114,904 posts)longer now.
I am really enjoying this.
Bad Thoughts
(2,531 posts)This is a really stupid canard. The two states are close to one another, but the people from New Hampshire and from Vermont have different mentalities. Vermonters are fairy liberal. New Hampsherites are fairly libertarian. Vermont is strongly influenced by upstate New York and Quebec. New Hampshire is strongly influenced by Boston. The important highways go north-south, toward Massachusetts. The highways that connect the two states are smaller. There are isolated pockets in both states, but the people do not necessarily think the same. New Hampshire is more industrial. Vermont is more rural.
Being from a neighboring state is no advantage to Bernie Sanders. What matters more is who has more presence in Boston media.
bowens43
(16,064 posts)pa28
(6,145 posts)Press Virginia
(2,329 posts)No
SheenaR
(2,052 posts)They were in threads all day yesterday doing the same damage control. Ridiculous
ProudToBeLiberal
(3,964 posts)in this thread. A lot of the polls have Bernie Sanders's with nearly a 30% advantage. If Hillary Clinton manages to shave off 10% and lose by only 20% that is a huge accomplishment. I would considered that a win even historic. She would become the new comeback kid.
I won't be holding my breath. To tell you the truth, I think Bernie will win by at least 30%, so I don't think Hillary will be the new comeback kid.
But, if she does close the gap and lose by only 20% then I will be ecstatic and happy. It would be a good victory.
SheenaR
(2,052 posts)had 30% margin. 1.
Even the Clinton campaign is saying single digits is the win. a 60 to 40 loss is a devastating blowout.
TBF
(32,090 posts)RDANGELO
(3,434 posts), or are you really that frantic.
HERVEPA
(6,107 posts)ViseGrip
(3,133 posts)1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)If HRC loses by 20, or 10, or 1 ... it is/would be a loss for HRC and a win for Bernie. Period. End of statement. On to next contest.
ljm2002
(10,751 posts)...when Bernie closed the gap in Iowa and came in essentially tied there, losing (maybe) by .3% of the vote, we Bernie supporters were sneered at and jeered at for claiming that was some sort of victory. We were metaphorically beaten over the head with "A win is a win" and "She got more delegates" and "So Bernie wins even if he loses? Har de har har har!" etc.
Now you are seriously trying to float the idea that a loss of 20-friggin'-percent would be a win for Hillary in New Hampshire?
Puhleeze.
EndElectoral
(4,213 posts)99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)"I dont trust CNN (Clinton News Network) .. this is just to make it appear that it will be
a "big win" for her even when she loses." <-- had more than a few of these comments.
In hindsight, makes me wonder.
jfern
(5,204 posts)She's down quite a bit from that.
http://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2014_winter_primary012914.pdf
mhatrw
(10,786 posts)left to him.
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,835 posts)I really think the Panthers ought to complain to the NFL that they should have been given the Super Bowl trophy because they lost by less than 20%. Isn't that the way that works?
dana_b
(11,546 posts)and I don't care if I am banned, juried, whatever. Hillary could lose by 95% and you would still say it was a "WIN!! Hillary got a few votes even though Bernie is a political god in NH!!"
SDJay
(1,089 posts)is sailing towards the nomination, then. At least he is based on that logic.
Oy. No offense to the OP, but this is pretty funny.
Lorien
(31,935 posts)So I guess that he blew her out of the water?
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,835 posts)Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)of the Democratic Party. They are just not.
frylock
(34,825 posts)Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)elehhhhna
(32,076 posts)Sounds like dws.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)Iowa: Hillary
NH: Bernie
We are just silly now. Ooooh booooy!!! This primary, eh?
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)He gets the momentum from a near tie in Iowa and a win in New Hampshire, period.
How come no one mentions Iowa neighbors Clinton's home state of Illinois. If I were the Sanders campaign, I'd point that out A LOT tonight.
seaotter
(576 posts)A loss is a loss, no matter how you parse it.
hoosierlib
(710 posts)See link below...
[link:http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html|
And the average has been around 15%...so any victory greater than 15% is a "yuuuge" victory for Sanders and colossal defeat for HRC...
lame54
(35,321 posts)JimDandy
(7,318 posts)Bookmarking
frylock
(34,825 posts)SMC22307
(8,090 posts)in a state she carried in 2008. Why did voters -- of nearly every demographic -- reject her in 2016?
John Poet
(2,510 posts)She couldn't even close the gap to 20 percent!
Talk about a train wreck-- that's the kind of train wreck
where they go around afterwards and shoot the survivors!
Total REJECTION!
REPUDIATION!
HUMILIATION!
NO Democratic candidate has EVER lost the NH primary by such a large percentage!
So I think your post may have influenced the karma...
Beacool
(30,251 posts)I was pleasantly surprised that Hillary won IA, even if by a razor thin margin. Sanders won NH handily, as predicted by every poll.
No candidate can win everything.
NH is not a barometer of how a race will turn out in the end. In 1992, Bill was in second place and won the nomination (he was 4th in IA). In 2008, Hillary won NH and Obama won the nomination.