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Godhumor

(6,437 posts)
Tue Feb 9, 2016, 05:53 PM Feb 2016

Let's clear this up with actual results. NH Democratic voters do vote for neighboring politicians

So, is it true that New Hampshire typically votes for candidates from neighboring states? In short, yes.

Since 1952, when New Hampshire’s modern primary began, there have been 16 Democratic races. Six of those included candidates from the Granite State’s three neighbors — Massachusetts, Maine or Vermont. And in those races, New Hampshire’s neighbors have won five times. And two other times candidates from neighboring states finished in second place.
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5 wins, 2 second places (One year two neighbors faced each other) in 6 possible elections.

1960: Sen. John F. Kennedy, of Massachusetts

1972: Sen. Edmund Muskie, of Maine

1980: Incumbent President Jimmy Carter. He beat out Sen. Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts.

1988: Gov. Michael Dukakis, of Massachusetts

1992: Former Sen. Paul Tsongas, of Massachusetts

2004: Sen. John Kerry, of Massachusetts. He beat out Gov. Howard Dean of Vermont.

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So tell me again how a neighbor advantage has been debunked?

http://www.wbur.org/2016/02/05/new-hampshire-primary-candidate-neighboring-state

13 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
1. Yep, it will be essentially a home state victory, i.e. wont mean much. On to SC and Super Tuesday!
Tue Feb 9, 2016, 05:56 PM
Feb 2016

that's when the race really starts.

 

cali

(114,904 posts)
12. Nope.
Tue Feb 9, 2016, 06:45 PM
Feb 2016

Killing a bullshit Clinton meme: Bernie Sanders Is No Favorite Son

Hillary Clinton’s campaign says that she’s losing New Hampshire because Bernie Sanders, being from neighboring Vermont, is a “favorite son” in the state. But according to reporters and editors at four of the state’s top news outlets, that’s “a load of crock” and “would make most New Hampshire stomachs turn.” In fact, most New Hampshirites probably didn’t know who Bernie Sanders was until he launched his presidential campaign. And bobcat-killing and the opiate epidemic are more likely to be at the top of their list of concerns than, say, immigration.

Those are just a few of things the pundits and candidates are getting wrong about New Hampshire as we head into its first-in-the-nation primary on Tuesday. In a roundtable interview moderated by Politico’s senior politics editor Charlie Mahtesian, five of the journalists who follow New Hampshire politics most closely revealed more about what's really going on on-the-ground in the Granite State and what we in Washington are missing.

Charlie Mahtesian, Politico: One of the things we’ve heard is a lockstep message coming out of the Clinton camp—this idea that Hillary Clinton’s not going to do that well because it’s Bernie’s backyard. They’re downplaying expectations since she’s trailing in the polls. My question, though, is how well does New Hampshire actually know Bernie? Is it the case where he’s the third senator from New Hampshire, as Clinton would like to believe? Is he known in the Connecticut River Valley, known in southern New Hampshire?

Roger Carroll, Nashua Telegraph: I was watching CBS news the other night, there was a woman doing standup in front of a bridge in Manchester. She said that Sanders is practically a favorite son here in New Hampshire. You know what, that is a load of crock. There’s no other way to—that is, I mean, I’m sitting there, you know how a dog turns its head when it doesn’t quite get something? .

Look. People in the Connecticut River Valley knew who he was. They knew who he was when he was mayor of Burlington, because Channel 3 has a really strong signal that beams in. But you go 15 miles to the east and nobody knew who he was, he was 50 points behind at this time last year. So, as Colonel Potter from MASH used to say: Horse hockey!

<snip>
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/02/new-hampshire-primary-political-reporters-213604

Avalux

(35,015 posts)
3. Whatever floats your boat!
Tue Feb 9, 2016, 06:05 PM
Feb 2016

I'm not sure what part of the world you live in, but New Hampshire residents call Vermont the "upside down" state, and the demographics between the two are different. The argument is flawed.

But go ahead, keep spreading this nonsense in preparation for Hillary's loss.

jeff47

(26,549 posts)
4. Uh....did you notice the single "Vermont" entry on your list? And how he lost?
Tue Feb 9, 2016, 06:15 PM
Feb 2016

The thing you are debunking is that NH never votes for a "neighbor". That isn't the claim.

The claim is being a "neighbor" isn't what is helping Sanders. And being down by 50% in August in NH kinda demonstrates that - if it was all about the neighbor, they'd pick Sanders back in August too.

VT media doesn't reach NH except for a very small area. MA media does reach a lot of Southern NH. That gives MA candidates an advantage...but Sanders is not from MA.

kath

(10,565 posts)
6. FACT -the OP in this other thread, which goes into more detail, shows that that old saw only applies
Tue Feb 9, 2016, 06:23 PM
Feb 2016

To candidates FROM MASSACHUSETTS.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511181157

But nice try.
Spin spin spin spin spin

 

KingCharlemagne

(7,908 posts)
11. Hmm, do Iowa voters caucus for candidates from neighboring states? I guess only
Tue Feb 9, 2016, 06:28 PM
Feb 2016

49.2% caucused for Illinois native Hillary Rodham.

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