2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumLet's clear this up with actual results. NH Democratic voters do vote for neighboring politicians
So, is it true that New Hampshire typically votes for candidates from neighboring states? In short, yes.
Since 1952, when New Hampshires modern primary began, there have been 16 Democratic races. Six of those included candidates from the Granite States three neighbors Massachusetts, Maine or Vermont. And in those races, New Hampshires neighbors have won five times. And two other times candidates from neighboring states finished in second place.
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5 wins, 2 second places (One year two neighbors faced each other) in 6 possible elections.
1960: Sen. John F. Kennedy, of Massachusetts
1972: Sen. Edmund Muskie, of Maine
1980: Incumbent President Jimmy Carter. He beat out Sen. Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts.
1988: Gov. Michael Dukakis, of Massachusetts
1992: Former Sen. Paul Tsongas, of Massachusetts
2004: Sen. John Kerry, of Massachusetts. He beat out Gov. Howard Dean of Vermont.
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So tell me again how a neighbor advantage has been debunked?
http://www.wbur.org/2016/02/05/new-hampshire-primary-candidate-neighboring-state
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)that's when the race really starts.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)Killing a bullshit Clinton meme: Bernie Sanders Is No Favorite Son
Hillary Clintons campaign says that shes losing New Hampshire because Bernie Sanders, being from neighboring Vermont, is a favorite son in the state. But according to reporters and editors at four of the states top news outlets, thats a load of crock and would make most New Hampshire stomachs turn. In fact, most New Hampshirites probably didnt know who Bernie Sanders was until he launched his presidential campaign. And bobcat-killing and the opiate epidemic are more likely to be at the top of their list of concerns than, say, immigration.
Those are just a few of things the pundits and candidates are getting wrong about New Hampshire as we head into its first-in-the-nation primary on Tuesday. In a roundtable interview moderated by Politicos senior politics editor Charlie Mahtesian, five of the journalists who follow New Hampshire politics most closely revealed more about what's really going on on-the-ground in the Granite State and what we in Washington are missing.
Charlie Mahtesian, Politico: One of the things weve heard is a lockstep message coming out of the Clinton campthis idea that Hillary Clintons not going to do that well because its Bernies backyard. Theyre downplaying expectations since shes trailing in the polls. My question, though, is how well does New Hampshire actually know Bernie? Is it the case where hes the third senator from New Hampshire, as Clinton would like to believe? Is he known in the Connecticut River Valley, known in southern New Hampshire?
Roger Carroll, Nashua Telegraph: I was watching CBS news the other night, there was a woman doing standup in front of a bridge in Manchester. She said that Sanders is practically a favorite son here in New Hampshire. You know what, that is a load of crock. Theres no other way tothat is, I mean, Im sitting there, you know how a dog turns its head when it doesnt quite get something? .
Look. People in the Connecticut River Valley knew who he was. They knew who he was when he was mayor of Burlington, because Channel 3 has a really strong signal that beams in. But you go 15 miles to the east and nobody knew who he was, he was 50 points behind at this time last year. So, as Colonel Potter from MASH used to say: Horse hockey!
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http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/02/new-hampshire-primary-political-reporters-213604
Purveyor
(29,876 posts)Nothing else needs be said.
Avalux
(35,015 posts)I'm not sure what part of the world you live in, but New Hampshire residents call Vermont the "upside down" state, and the demographics between the two are different. The argument is flawed.
But go ahead, keep spreading this nonsense in preparation for Hillary's loss.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)The thing you are debunking is that NH never votes for a "neighbor". That isn't the claim.
The claim is being a "neighbor" isn't what is helping Sanders. And being down by 50% in August in NH kinda demonstrates that - if it was all about the neighbor, they'd pick Sanders back in August too.
VT media doesn't reach NH except for a very small area. MA media does reach a lot of Southern NH. That gives MA candidates an advantage...but Sanders is not from MA.
Lisa D
(1,532 posts)Seems to be a rarity these days
kath
(10,565 posts)To candidates FROM MASSACHUSETTS.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511181157
But nice try.
Spin spin spin spin spin
But it's a little sad to rob them of their delusions. Oh wait, no it's not.
dsc
(52,166 posts)seaotter
(576 posts)KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)49.2% caucused for Illinois native Hillary Rodham.