2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumAfter NH win, Bernie's odds for the nomination improve...by 1%
Before NH, 83-17 Clinton
Street NH, 82-18 Clinton
Now before anyone starts in on this, understand that the reason odds didn't move is that Hillary losing NH has been baked into the numbers for a few weeks now. As a result, when expectations were met there was no new movement (On the other hand, if Clinton had pulled off the win, her chances would have spiked to 95% or so.).
The first real chance for Sanders to move the dial is by significantly outperforming expectations in SC (Currently a 83-17 underdog). A win in NV may help in SC, but predictors are already expecting a closer race there than many others (Currently a 62-38 underdog).
So, the belief is that NH hasn't changed the story, at least as of now. And I don't believe the story will change unless Bernie cracks SC, and, by extension, the SEC Primary. In less than three weeks, we'll see if he has the chops to upend the end game.
http://predictwise.com/
thereismore
(13,326 posts)Avalux
(35,015 posts)Bernie has already upended the game, and has all the momentum.
AZ Progressive
(3,411 posts)Supporting the war on drugs (modern jim crow), tough on crime laws, welfare reform, dog whistle racism, police militarization, and taking lots of money from the private prison industry, all in all pretending to be friends of the black community.
Hillary's campaign is on a house of cards.
onehandle
(51,122 posts)...does it resemble almost every other state.
My guess is that they rounded up.
You owe me a keyboard!
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Looking at many of the comments here, you'd think that Bernie "hit-a-triple" and came from behind for a surprising win in New Hampshire. Thanks for your post that helps to keep things in perspective. A good dose of REALISM is always good for the soul and mind.
Fumesucker
(45,851 posts)He really does know how to talk to everyday Americans, unlike Hillary who knows how to talk down to us.
ram2008
(1,238 posts)He has proven he can clobber Hillary with the white vote. Now he has to chip away at her minority vote -- doesn't have to be a lot - but he has to dent it. If he can do that, we will see in Nevada. Should he win or come very close there expect the floodgates to open.
LondonReign2
(5,213 posts)However, the one thing no mathematical model can seem to factor in is, Hillary is still Hillary. The more people see her, the more they dislike her.
When talking about the parallel paths the 2008 and 2016 nominating processes appear to be taking, Clinton supporters like to opine that "Sanders is no Obama". No, that is true. But Hillary is still Hillary.