2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum538:It Gets Harder From Here For Bernie Sanders But New Hampshire couldn’t have gone better for him
You could already see how Sanders might have problems in Nevada and South Carolina even as he was crushing Clinton in New Hampshire. Despite winning the state by more than 20 percentage points, the best Sanders could manage among registered Democrats was a tie. His large margin came from registered independents who voted in the Democratic primary. You must be a registered Democrat to vote in the Nevada caucuses, though you can register as one the day of the election. In 2008, 81 percent of Nevada caucus-goers self-identified as Democrats. Just 58 percent of New Hampshire voters on Tuesday thought of themselves as Democrats.
Most worrisome for Sanders is his 25-percentage-point loss among New Hampshire Democrats who want to continue President Obamas policies. Obamas current job approval rating among blacks nationally is about 90 percent. Sanders will have big problems in South Carolina if he doesnt do better among voters who like Obama.
The bottom line is that Sanders did very well in New Hampshire, and we can see the outlines of a campaign that can be competitive in the rest of the country. But there is plenty of work for him to do as we move away from the very white states of Iowa and New Hampshire.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-gets-harder-from-here-for-bernie-sanders/
Bernie needs to find away to embrace Obama and woo registered Democrats.
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)Gone from impossible to >>> gets harder.
In other words 538 doesn't know WTF is going on and is fumbling around trying to find out WTF is happening.
Put simply: 538 is feeling the Bern!
hack89
(39,171 posts)no point in fighting over it now. We will soon know.
RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)Bernie is going to get nominated.
Gone from impossible to just hard. Even 538 can see that.
Bernie is rising and Hillary is going down hill.
hack89
(39,171 posts)frylock
(34,825 posts)you know, when Hillary Supporter was taking their victory laps. My, how the times have changed.
hack89
(39,171 posts)something both Hillary and Sanders supporters should have no problem agreeing with.
frylock
(34,825 posts)if a win in such an insignificant state as NH garners Sanders 3.5 million dollars in a 20 hour period, I can't imagine the jack he's going to rake in on 3/2 after soundly defeating Madam Secretary.
marble falls
(57,102 posts)hack89
(39,171 posts)they said that Hillary would win IA and Bernie would win NH. That is what happened.
KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)lost NH's black vote by only 1% to Hillary (50% HRC - 49% BS). Senator Sanders does not need to win that demographic, merely to replicate his NH percentages. If I were the Clinton campaign, I would be sweating bullets
hack89
(39,171 posts)of which a very small proportion actually voted yesterday. That is a tiny sample to extrapolate to black majority voting populations in the deep south.
Look at the polling in the south. If that starts changing then there is room for Hillary to be concerned.
KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)Last edited Wed Feb 10, 2016, 06:40 PM - Edit history (1)
of extrapolating from abnormally small sample sizes (generally speaking). Still, I thought that particular metric was worthy of note.
hack89
(39,171 posts)an that is his dependence on independents. Independent voters played an outsize role in NH that is not so common in the south.
KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)participate. Nevada does allow same-day registration, a fact I'm sure the Sanders field staff will put to good use. I'm not sure what the rules are for the Feb. 27 South Carolina primary.
frylock
(34,825 posts)Hillary Supporter knows that the so-called PoC firewall has been breached.
kcjohn1
(751 posts)For being ahead of trends. In December they had Clinton winning NH at 70%. Right before the vote they had it 99% for Sanders.
So the lesson is that they are useful only right before the vote and they can't really forecast things in the future.
hack89
(39,171 posts)and all 538 does is aggregate polls, don't see how they can be faulted.
Just objecting to them pontificating months out how Bernie doesn't have a chance when their expertise is only aggregating polls that are only good the closer you are to the voting day.
Real political analysis would be to see couple of months ago that Bernie had a good chance to win NH. Two months ago they were saying Clinton had 70% chance of winning NH.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)Not a bad record.
calguy
(5,313 posts)If they don't go 100% all in for Bernie, right?