2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWarning signs for Hillary Clinton in South Carolina
Even before Sen. Bernie Sanders began surging in early state and national polls, the Hillary Clinton campaign viewed South Carolina as her firewall, mainly due to her much higher standing and name recognition with black voters. But there are signs that the Clinton team may be falling behind the Sanders campaign, both in terms of organizing on the ground and exciting black voters, even as former Secretary Clinton maintains a large lead in the polls and prognosticators like FiveThirtyEight.com give her overwhelming odds of winning the states primary in two weeks.
As of last week, the Clinton campaign had only two campaign offices in South Carolina: one in Charleston and another in the capital, Columbia, with just 14 full-time staffers including state director Clay Middleton. The campaign also has nine get out the vote sites smaller-scale sites devoted to turnout across the state.
The Sanders campaign, meanwhile, had 240 staffers on the ground as of last week 80 percent of them African-American spread across 10 offices statewide.
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/warning-signs-hillary-clinton-south-carolina
Trajan
(19,089 posts)He is using OUR money to fight the good fight ...
What an honor it is to be a part of this ..
GO BERNIE! ...
Here goes another twenty!
PatrynXX
(5,668 posts)I know full well it's a bet but it's a bet on winning
Cassiopeia
(2,603 posts)and the prize will be worth far more in the long run.
appalachiablue
(41,145 posts)Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)CorporatistNation
(2,546 posts)That is a bigg reason why Bernie is making great strides...
avaistheone1
(14,626 posts)I'm very impressed.
DemocraticSocialist8
(396 posts)Clinton is depending on name recognition taking her to a win. She also has fewer donors & more large donors who have maxed out. She has to spread her money out whereas Sanders has a well he can keep going back to.
INdemo
(6,994 posts)and DWS thought it was a done deal for Hillary once she announced and simply did not and does not have a real strategy for
SC and NV to combat a Challenger...and if we look ahead to Super Tuesday states if the Clinton campaign has to focus heavily on NV and SC then she could have a problem there..I know here comes the polling numbers but for Super Tuesday states but SC was once out of play is now winnable for Bernie as is NV
roguevalley
(40,656 posts)trumpian thing relying on name to draw folks in like he did in Iowa and we know how that turned out. Hence, fundraisers in Mexico with Walmart shills and the rules change in the DNC. Obama is now to hold part of the blame of that by keeping DWS in place.
Trajan
(19,089 posts)Close enough ... she's been caught flat footed by a surprising Bernie juggernaut ...
All those months they pretended ... 'Bernie who?'
Now he's eaten their lunch and is HUNGRY for some dinner! ...
Their strategy has been ... Let's say, lackluster ... Ineffective ... Wrong headed ....
The proof is in the pudding ...
tex-wyo-dem
(3,190 posts)Excellent way to put it. I think up until a few weeks before Iowa, the Hillary campaign never took Bernie very seriously, and never imagined he would pose any threat. As a result, they got lazy and didn't organize at all for a protracted primary, but instead started looking ahead to the ge.
Kind of like a sports team that looks past a lesser team they have to play to get to the championship game, and end up getting their clocks cleaned by said lesser team
Trajan
(19,089 posts)What a disaster ... Who's running their campaign?
It's actually quite embarrassing as a Democrat ...
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)not an actual primary
what a shame...
snowy owl
(2,145 posts)greiner3
(5,214 posts)What's for desert
appalachiablue
(41,145 posts)(image courtesy Wilms)
enigmatic
(15,021 posts)People on the ground, knocking on doors, engaging the communities.
It's working.
roguevalley
(40,656 posts)a period of election cycles in Nevada and this one the registration is through the roof. The pugs have nothing going on so outside groups are registering them. She hinted that Bernie is the reason for the huge upswing. Nevada is going to be amazing. If they registered voters, they know how and where to caucus. she may get dumped on her head in Nevada and the shaky ground in SC is a good sign too. Hubris goeth before a fall.
PatrynXX
(5,668 posts)they don't see anyone they like and they don't want trump and they are crossing the lines for Bernie , nevermind the Libertarians seem to love his anti wall street message. Risky but smart.
and Libertarians are not Tea Party.
Volaris
(10,272 posts)When the banks didn't ALLOW that to happen, I think enough of them decided it was time to remove private money from the process of governing. We might have to trade public financing of elections for some nonsense concessions on term limits or some other bullshit, but the LIBERTARIANS will deal. The TeaParty that would back Cruz and vote for their own economic death warrants..not so much. Babie jebus and such.
JDPriestly
(57,936 posts)We don't need the Libertarian votes that badly. They don't know what it is like to constantly get inexperienced politicians in public office. And it means that politicians are looking for their next job while serving in public office. It's worse in that respect than the Citizens United campaign financing reality.
Term limits are not helpful. They sound good, but they are counter-productive.
LibDemAlways
(15,139 posts)Guess what? He's a huge Bernie fan and will vote for him in the primary. Bernie's anti Wall Street message is resonating with people across the political spectrum.
Voice for Peace
(13,141 posts)He didn't exactly endorse Bernie but was positive about him. Could bring many young libertarians in.
appalachiablue
(41,145 posts)Feeling the Bern in The Palmetto State!
(Joy Reid is considered a Clinton supporter)
Justin Bamberg, South Carolina State Rep. and attny. endorsed Bernie Jan. 25, and dropped Clinton.
MORE: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017329310
kracer20
(199 posts)The statement of "No Clinton Supporters" was repeated so many times, it got me thinking. Are they trying to get the Hillary supporters worried and get them out, or trying to get Bernie supporters complacent thinking he has it in the bag.
Or I'm just paranoid...
appalachiablue
(41,145 posts)for sure yet Bernie has been campaigning in S.C. since August and visited in Jan. for civil rights events. Members of the CBC/Congressional Black Caucus haven't been sent there just recently for nothing, as the media is reporting, if that's the case. The increase for him there and in Nevada is real, supporters are working hard and momentum is growing, yuge.
-SANDERS ENDORSED BY KEY SOUTH CAROLINA DEMOCRAT - The Hill, Feb, 3, 2016
Former South Carolina Democratic Party chairman Richard Harpootlian on Wednesday endorsed Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) for president.
"You sort of say, 'Well, can he do it?' " Harpootlian said, according to the New York Times. "It's like 2007, when I met Barack Obama fully intending to support Hillary Clinton. And after a half hour with him he convinced me, not convinced me so much as I saw a passion in him.
Hillary is not an agent of change I mean, her campaign slogan should be, Its my turn, he added.
Its hard for me to listen to how Hillary says she would fight Wall Street when she took hundreds of thousands of dollars in speaking fees from Goldman Sachs not 20 years ago, but a couple years ago. Shes talking the talk, but not walking the walk.
Richard Harpootlian served twice as the Democratic Party Chairman in South Carolina, 1998-2003 and 2011-2013 -
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/268162-former-south-carolina-dem-party-chair-endorses-sanders
__________
*FEELING THE BERN IN CHARLESTON, SOUTH CAROLINA- THE BERNIE SANDERS RALLY*
Aug. 22, 2015, 7 p.m., Charleston Convention Center. Rock music blared from speakers. Crowds cheered and waved signs. Couples danced together, laughing and smiling. What would appear to be a summer music festival was quite the opposite this was the Bernie Sanders rally. Over 3,150 South Carolinians journeyed to North Charleston to get a glimpse at the newest candidate to enter the presidential race. Pictured here, Sanders incites the crowd with a rousing speech, (Photo Credits to Michael Wiser)
One of three opening speakers at the rally was Tristan Fletcher, a junior at the College of Charleston. He supported Sanders plan for free public education at the collegiate level. College is an expensive proposition for us, he remarked. Countries all over the world are providing free and inexpensive education for their youth. Yet, Fletchers cousin, like far too many American students, he said, will graduate from medical school with over 250,000 dollars in debt.
When Sanders rose to the stage, the audience erupted in cheers and chants, yelling Bernie, Bernie, Bernie while waving campaign signs. Sanders touched upon many key components of his campaign such as increasing minimum wage and stopping corporate greed. He especially emphasized his policy on free education at the collegiate level. Sanders wants to place a Robin Hood tax on stock transactions on Wall Street, taxing the wealthy to serve the middle and lower classes.
You cant have it all, Sanders stated emphatically. You cannot take advantage of all the benefits of America if you refuse to accept your responsibilities as Americans. He then spoke on youth unemployment, citing statistics that 5.5 million of Americans between the ages of 17 and 20 are unemployed. This rate, Sanders claimed, is directly related to the fact that America has more citizens incarcerated than any other country in the world. We are turning our backs on young people
We need to invest in jobs and education, he resolved.
Sanders platform also includes raising minimum wage from $7.25 an hour to $15.00. Dubbing the new wage as a national living wage, Sanders argued that any working citizen laboring 40 hours a week should not have to live in poverty or have to keep multiple jobs to provide for their family.
Many of the attendees carried signs or wore shirts displaying the popular campaign slogan: Feel the Bern, a pun on candidate Sanders' name. (Photo Credits: Michael Wiser)
Sanders maintained his hard positioning throughout the rally, hoping to inspire the audience to join in his so called political revolution. Sanders concluded, Corporate greed is destroying America, it is immoral and unsustainable. You and I, together, we are going to change that.
>Attendees of the rally came from all over the state. Avid Bernie supporters Steven and Joy Austen, for example, drove 150 miles from Rock Hill, S.C. When asked why he would make such a trek to see Sanders, Steven replied, Because Bernie is really progressive and is trying to do things that should have been done a long time ago.College of Charleston student Kylie Beall found Sanders stance on the rising cost of collegiate level education to be the most resounding issue .
>A lot of kids are really in debt now because of school or they cant get jobs, Kylie stated. I just dont think any of the new candidates would address the issues of the younger generation thats going to inherit the earth.
http://site.cisternyard.com/2015/08/27/feeling-the-bern-in-charleston-the-bernie-sanders-rally/
- Sen. Bernie Sanders Speaks to Students at St. Benedict's College in Columbia, South Carolina.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1280111433
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1280&pid=111534
cui bono
(19,926 posts)that it ain't just Teabaggers who don't know how to spell.
It's Feel the BERN, not Burn!
Or maybe that's a Hillary supporter trying to make us look stupid.
appalachiablue
(41,145 posts)SheilaT
(23,156 posts)Because once someone has early voted, there's no more opportunity to change their mind.
appalachiablue
(41,145 posts)Feb. 11 Dem. Debate, S.C. Rep. Justin Bamberg comments why Bernie is picking up steam in South Carolina not only among young voters under 30, but 'the cutoff is 50' as the Sanders message reaches more and more people.
Retired Veteran Bob Meyers of Columbia, S.C. says how he supports and loves Bernie, and 90% of the people don't have the good health care he has and educational opportunities he had as a veteran through the GI Bill.
Response to enigmatic (Reply #3)
Name removed Message auto-removed
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)Which would make a loss here even more embarrassing
myrna minx
(22,772 posts)Bernie Sanders supporter.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)roguevalley
(40,656 posts)endorsing her but government officials are the kiss of death. If you want to identify the establishment candidate, find the one with the most government official endorsements. This year, that is the kiss of death. she wanted to create a facade of power and backers but it doesn't mean dick to the electorate. They know who they want and it isn't some someone adorned with these endorsements. She's building a house of cards and Bernie is the strong breeze coming.
wouldsman
(94 posts)Cassiopeia
(2,603 posts)to see how valuable those endorsements are.
Peace Patriot
(24,010 posts)THANK YOU!
cui bono
(19,926 posts).
Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)nt
dorkzilla
(5,141 posts)thesquanderer
(11,990 posts)That's not the same as having "the entire Black Congressional Caucus."
Arazi
(6,829 posts)It's a huge turn off for those sick of the status quo
Larkspur
(12,804 posts)Clyburn and other CBC members have not endorsed yet.
Hillary got the endorsement of the CBC PAC, not the CBC itself. Keith Ellison is a CBC member and he endorsed Bernie. Maxine Waters said she has not endorsed yet.
appalachiablue
(41,145 posts)the former Chair of the Congressional Black Caucus also stated she hasn't endorsed yet to Amy Goodman on the Democracy Now! program Feb. 11.
http://www.democracynow.org/2016/2/11/as_congressional_black_caucus_pac_prepares
http://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Rep-Barbara-Lee-among-top-African-American-6825031.php
cui bono
(19,926 posts)markpkessinger
(8,401 posts)bvf
(6,604 posts)yourout
(7,531 posts)It's a long shot I know but party leaders might stroke out if it does happen.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)Hair on fire sheer panic.
AZ Progressive
(3,411 posts)enigmatic
(15,021 posts)There's either going to be an all-out war on Bernie and his supporters by Hillary/DNC that will fracture the Democratic Party beyond repair, and/or Bloomberg will enter the race as a fallback for Wall Street if Hillary's campaign implodes even more than they have already.
pinebox
(5,761 posts)And they will forever fracture the party and many people will move to be Greens which will make them a big party.
INdemo
(6,994 posts)reaches the point where Hillary's campaign looks defeated a draft Biden movement would go forward. It would erase everything Biden has stood for his whole political career and he will decline. So there may be some efforts by DWS to stop Bernie Sanders at the convention but I believe his "revolution" will have drawn so many supporters by then it will be unstoppable especially after Bernie Sanders has picked his VP.
SheilaT
(23,156 posts)but it's already too let for him to get on at least some primary ballots. Plus, he does not have a staff or any organization to run campaign. So that simply is not going to happen.
INdemo
(6,994 posts)and the Hillary camp is loosing support. We have to continue giving our 10s and 20s
and we can do this...
Bill is due for another one of his 1990 Karl Rove style attacks so that should bring in a lot of contributions for Bernie ...
Go Bernie !!!!
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)Gene Debs
(582 posts)How does Sanders manage the congress better than Obama?
frylock
(34,825 posts)as in Bill feverishly dialing numbers and calling in chits.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)I said to a regular here over PM that I saw Bernie building the 2008 coalition all over again. There are certainly some variations, but if this is what is happening, the party power brokers are going to have some issues... And yes, expect the campaign to get infinintely more dirty. You thought photo gate was ratfucking, just wait. That was a practice run.
SheilaT
(23,156 posts)were all confidently assuring us that Bernie had no ground game, and she did. What happened?
Actually, I'm pretty sure I know what happened. Hillary & Co got overconfident. They thought she was assured the nomination (inevitable, I think was the word being used) and after an initial flurry of staffing last summer, let everything fall apart. Meanwhile, to their utter surprise and shock, Bernie Sanders (a Socialist for crying out loud) didn't just fade away, even though until maybe two weeks ago the mainstream media totally ignored him. Meanwhile, his supporters kept on giving money, in small amounts, and opening offices on their own, and doing phone banking and then going to Iowa, and New Hampshire, and now they're going to Nevada. And her assured strong victory in Iowa turned out to be a squeaker -- heck, it's more than possible Bernie actually won by a tiny amount -- and New Hampshire was a total rout.
So now the fallback is "Black people support Hillary!". And back last summer, when Bernie was being slammed by the Black Lives Matter movement, too many of whom unfortunately had no idea of his history in the civil rights movement, Hillary actually said, while talking to Black activists saying things she didn't want to hear, ". . . then I will only talk to white people . . ."
I think perhaps word of that exchange is getting around, and I think many more black people are understanding how positions she championed back in the 1990s have been so terrible for the black community.
Addendum: I have two good friends who moved from other parts of the country to South Carolina within the past few years, both to be with family. While I understand that impetus, I honestly don't know how they tolerate the political climate there. One, who has been there for nearly a decade, is planning to relocate, probably to Massachusetts. The other will probably remain in SC so long as her son lives there.
Where we live is usually a confluence of opportunity, inertia, and chance. I've lived in several different parts of the country myself, and I understand all of that.
SoapBox
(18,791 posts)defy the votes of the citizens and push her through to the nomination.
My advice to the DNC, DWS and those rigged up Super Delegates...don't even go there.
SheilaT
(23,156 posts)needed at the convention to win the nomination.
Historically the Super Delegates have gone with the candidate who got the most votes/delegates during the primary season.
These are not people who are so totally beholden to Hillary that they will stay with her to the bitter end. More to the point, it's very important to understand that the SDs are not rigged in any way. They are elected Democrats, for the most part, who are entitled by their office to be at the National Convention and cast a vote. They are going to go with the majority.
Back in 2008, I seem to recall, that people here were also freaking out over the Super Delegates. Chill. If in the end Hillary really does win enough primaries and caucuses, of course they will stick with her. I am sincerely hoping Bernie does vastly better in the next few months.
Maybe we should be making book on when she'll bow out, and how spending time with her grandchildren will be deemed the most important thing in her life, all of a sudden.
noiretextatique
(27,275 posts)Is gaining more members every day. I was on today, and many people were expressing displeasure (to put it mildly) about her "pulling the Obama card" in the debate. Honestly, she has proven to far more tonedeaf than Sanders.
AzDar
(14,023 posts)whereisjustice
(2,941 posts)buy what she's missing. There's just no money in this world.
Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)hedda_foil
(16,375 posts)Larkspur
(12,804 posts)Hillary has not won the nomination, so not sure if the DNC can actually write her a check.
hedda_foil
(16,375 posts)cui bono
(19,926 posts)They'll be trying to shove Wall Street money to his campaign and he'll keep telling them to cut it out.
.
Uncle Joe
(58,366 posts)Thanks for the thread, INdemo.
pat_k
(9,313 posts)SoapBox
(18,791 posts)That they've just been talking the African American community and their votes, for granted.
Rosa Luxemburg
(28,627 posts)Hillary is like Ann Romney she is so rich and tells them to heel - she doesn't resonate with young black people.
appalachiablue
(41,145 posts)Spitfire of ATJ
(32,723 posts)Then remember she spent 90% of her resources already in Iowa.
Good thing her interns are unpaid or she'd be in real trouble!
WhaTHellsgoingonhere
(5,252 posts)Here's the math
1+2 = Bernie probability of winning the primary 97%
Enthusiast
(50,983 posts)21st Century Poet
(254 posts)Everything is stacked against Bernie Sanders but sometimes I think that he might just run away with this thing.
99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)WillyT
(72,631 posts)Jarqui
(10,126 posts)Bernie is evidently making so much progress with the black vote that she is cutting her losses.
That's still hard to believe.
Seemed unlikely after what they've done to Bernie with civil rights over the last few days and all the endorsing surrogates they had in the news and working in SC recently.
But the Reuters poll indicates Sanders is closing the gap with blacks substantially
http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131/filters/SC_RACE:2,PD1:1/dates/20160112-20160212/type/day
(saw this on DKos)
If that is so and Bernie has closed also closed the gap with Latinos in Nevada, Hillary's campaign is in real trouble. Maybe they hope to regroup for Super Tuesday.
Of course, the email problem continue to bruise her
Obama Intel Chief: Hillary Clinton should withdraw from presidential race 2/12/16
More Hillary Clinton Emails Released, Including 3 Now Secret, 84 more classified
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/14/us/politics/more-hillary-clinton-emails-released-including-3-now-secret.html
And CNN talked about the Clinton Foundation getting subpoenaed ...
DrBulldog
(841 posts). . . and I will do it EVERY TIME!
stage left
(2,962 posts)My first time knocking doors. I was phonebanking before. There were a couple of dozen teams out canvassing as well as phone bankers. Two of those teams had Spanish speakers and they were going into Hispanic neighborhoods.We had volunteers in from Indiana as well as North Carolina to work on turning the heat up for Bernie. It's Bernie Y'all.