Lots of phone banking to do folks.

Sweet fancy Moses!

GO Bernie!

I don't think the odds are reliable. We need more polling that is actually not full of push questions from the GOP.

The graph clearly shows that. We need more reliable polling, period. This pollster worked for Mitt Romney of all people, so I think we need to be careful about trusting it. The race could be close, but Republican pollster are sketchy.

Yes, that poll is the most recent so it's weighted more, but they take the source's validity into consideration:

"The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones."

Meaning that it was the only one used. That makes sense since the last Nevada poll before the present one - one that resulted in a tie - was taken in late December - much too old.

Last edited Sat Feb 13, 2016, 01:10 AM - Edit history (1)

Silver does not use older polls. The last poll before the current "tie" poll was back around Christmas - much to old to use. (See my reply to the OP below.)

With the Nevada caucuses coming up soon, we should get additional Nevada polls fairly quickly and then we well have a better idea what is going on.

On Sat Feb 13, 2016, 04:42 AM an alert was sent on the following post:

52 Bernie 47 Hillary the rest go O'Malley and Vermin Supreme.
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Calling Hillary Clinton, a Democratic candidate for President, on a Democratic discussion board "Vermin Supreme" is ground for hide if not expulsion.

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Like Hillary and Vermin Supreme are even in the same league.

The writing on the wall seems to me that Hillary is writing off Nevada to emphasize the March 1 primaries.

That way if she wins its a plus. If she loses, she plays it off as it were no big deal.

Just my theory.

just like NH.

Hillary goes into SC with a Victory from Iowa, and after winning SC she will go into Super Tuesday tied on states and way ahead on delegates (counting supers).

I thought Sanders supporters considered Nate Silver is a loser who made all kinds of mistakes in his predictions. Oh, that's right, that was when Silver was predicting Bernie would lose a state.

You should understand that according to Silver's his current prediction of a tie is based the only poll in Nevada which has been taken lately. According to Nate's ratings of organization which conducted the poll, it is not known for producing accurate polling data. If you don't believe me check it out for yourself using the poll information available on the link and Silver's ratings of polling organizations on his site.

If you dig deeper you will find that polling organization is a right wing political group and if you look at the questions on the poll itself you will find that they written to try to lead the people answering the questions in a particular direction. Not good.

Many Bernie supporters have claimed that the polls are rigged, well this might serve as their best example. Now ask yourself, why would a right wing organization try to get people to believe that Clinton is not as far ahead in Nevada as they thought? You might also what to ask yourself why Carl Rowe's super PAC spent $1.5 million in NH right before the primary on ads attacking Clinton using Bernie's talking points?

Here's the bottom line, I would wait until you see the next Nevada poll to get excited. I don't know what the next poll is going to show, but it will probably be much more accurate than the current one. I am going to wait until the next two or three Nevada polls come out before I get excited one way or the other.

Last edited Sat Feb 13, 2016, 01:06 PM - Edit history (1)

approximations.

I am familiar with Silver's techniques - he uses only recent polls because the public's opinion can change a great deal over time.

Note that the second to last poll - Gravis Marketing poll was taken why back between Dec. 23rd and 27th. and it had Clinton ahead by +23%. That was a long time ago in polling terms. Look at the polls before that one where Clinton was ahead by 29% 16%, 27% etc. Those couldn't possibly be combined with a poll which showed a tie to come out with combined score of a tie. No, only the last poll - with the tie result - was used.

Also look at the graph of Clinton's and Sander's poll results over time where the two line intersect at the present date. Note that those lines correspond exactly to the results of the other six polls and ultimately to tie poll.

You can see that now can't you, right JudyM?

Also I noted that his comment about the most recent polls being heavily weighted. No argument. But he determines the validity of the poll and I trust that if he's counting it he made an independent determination how to weight it.

Have a good night, signing off. I'm directing a canvassing team in the morning.

Try averaging 6 polls where Clinton was way ahead with one poll where she and Sanders tied and see if you come up with a tie. (please show your work)

Mathematically, the only way you can do that, even with weighting the polls, is to put all of the weight on the last poll and none on the previous six. That is the mathematical equivalent of using only the last poll - the was one that resulted in a tie.

I have taken far too many statistics and math courses to doubt myself on this one. Even a Sanders supporter who knows his/her math will support me on this.

The reason he gets general elections right is because there are dozens and dozens of polls running up to the election. Tens of thousands of people polled. Of course if you aggregate them you're going to have fantastic results. The primaries, however, are all over the place.

Nate Silver is an excellent statistician. His formulas and techniques are very sound.

But as they say in the computer trade: Garbage in, garbage out. Silver does not use old polling data because public opinion can change quickly over time - witness the Sanders surge. The only recent Nevada poll of the Democratic race came out of a polling organization which Silver has rated as "poor". But it is the only recent Nevada poll he has; the last poll before this one was taken back around Christmas - much to old to use.

I suggest that Bernie supporters waiting until new Nevada polls come out before getting excited. With the primary coming up soon, that shouldn't take too long.

However, base on the posts above, but now that you mention it, I did notice that some Sanders fans are suddenly taking a liking to Silver.

predict a caucus state, especially one with same
day registration.

Thus this is just hedging his bets,imo.

Silver knows that other (better) Nevada polls will be out soon.

I like Sanders' chances, but there hasn't been much reliable polling recently. Reid has been neutral so far. Wonder if he will send out his vaunted machine to buttress the chances of Clinton.

I just went to a panel tonight in Las Vegas that included Cornel West, Donna Murch, Christopher Whitt and James Small who all talked about why they were supporting Bernie. Given the reaction of the audience, I'm thinking Hillary's firewall is crumbling.

lots of discussion...and we get Bernie tomorrow night. It's an amazing weekend in Vegas.

I think she's dead in the water.

Just my opinion, tho' - so don't mind me.

square the result, and subtract that from the poll number

you'll predict "right" every single time!

Not following your math.