2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumCan anyone tell me why there is such a dearth of state polling?
Anyone know if this was true in 2004 and 2008?
Thanks...
HereSince1628
(36,063 posts)rightwing scags are producing obviously biased polls.
Don't ask for polls. If they are done they will be BAD!
--at least that's the meme being circulated
Todays_Illusion
(1,209 posts)Skwmom
(12,685 posts)Todays_Illusion
(1,209 posts)restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)kath
(10,565 posts)Skwmom
(12,685 posts)cali
(114,904 posts)SC is a primary state.
A lot of people have been wondering about that, particularly in the next Democratic contest in Nevada. The only recent polling there was conducted by a right-wing push-poll organization, and it's credibility is next to zero.
The problem (at least for Nevada) is that this will be only the third time they've held caucuses. Without more historical data, polling firms have almost no way of knowing who the "likely voters" will be. They'd rather do no polling at all than risk their reputations on prediction in an unpredictable place.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)It is a poll done with a solid method and a large, well thought out sample that is weighted to favor Hillary (60% female).
Yes it is a right wing poll.
Yes it includes questions of the type that will find their way into push polls. Doing the research to find which memes are most effective is clearly the object of the poll.
Neither of those points - that it is by a right wind group or that it includes what will become push poll questions - has any bearing on the demographic and preference data that was collected before they began testing the push poll questions.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)by Jon Ralston Fri, 02/12/2016 - 08:12
Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are in a tight race to win Nevada, according to a poll taken this week.
The survey, paid for by the conservative Free Beacon, shows a 45-45 tie. It was conducted by TargetPoint of 1,236 potential Nevada caucusgoers from Feb. 8-10, with a margin of error just under 3 percent. That's a lot of interviews -- "867 interviews were completed using automated telephone technology and 369 were conducted using mobile phones," according to the polling instrument, which I have posted below along with the crosstabs.
<snip>
►Clinton loses on trust, 53-29; on who cares about people like you, 49-36; and who is progressive, 49-36. Danger, Will Robinson!
►The sample is almost 60 percent female (about what it as in '08), which ought to worry Clinton. Sanders leads 63-16 among young voters (18-29), and if there are a lot of youngsters who register on Caucus Day.... She's also losing among independents, as the Free Beacon reported.
https://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/poll-sanders-and-clinton-nevada-dead-heat
Full poll available at link
zazen
(2,978 posts)Just sayin.'
aspirant
(3,533 posts)are now admitting they're neutered in Nevada, it's priceless.
They can't present their lame polls so close to each primary state election and be so obviously wrong without being laughed into oblivion.
MineralMan
(146,317 posts)Polling companies don't work for free. Generally, it's the media who pays them. Candidates also pay for polling, but that polling usually isn't released publicly.
Maybe you can commission a poll in some state that interests you. If you like, I can direct you to some polling companies.
aspirant
(3,533 posts)MineralMan
(146,317 posts)as a free public service? Most publicly released polls are commissioned by the news media. Nobody works for free on stuff like that. What did you think?
aspirant
(3,533 posts)Wall Street pays Hills for speeches and MSM pays quasi-pollsters for propaganda.
MineralMan
(146,317 posts)Some polling is quite accurate as a predictor of the actual results. I'm just pointing out that all polls are paid for by someone. It costs money to conduct a poll. Nobody's doing it for free.
I'm not defending anyone, nor attacking anyone. I'm just stating the facts. My opinion is that some polling companies do a more accurate job than others. I find polling to be useful, but not influential to me. I don't form my decisions based on them, but I do watch them to see how things are developing. That's because I'm interested in politics. I get one vote, though, just like everyone else.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)is not interested in more state by state polling, since the national stuff doesn't really matter all that much.
MineralMan
(146,317 posts)Typically, in-state polls are commissioned by news media in a particular state. In Minnesota, for example, the most recent polling for the primary race for President was commissioned by the Minneapolis Star-Tribune.
The national media often reports the results of such polling, but less often commissions such polls.
The best source for state-wide Democratic primary polls I've found is:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/dem_pres_primary/
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)although given the obsession of the three cable outfits, i would think they would be able to pay for a few upcoming state polls, or at leaat better report the ones that are done
thanks for the link!
SheenaR
(2,052 posts)It seems like it's too difficult
http://lasvegassun.com/news/2016/feb/11/whos-polling-well-in-nevada-heres-why-thats-diffic/
As far as others? No clue why my neighbors in Massachusetts haven't had a poll in 3 months.
Le Taz Hot
(22,271 posts)that it's too difficult to poll Nevada because of their unique caucus system (unique from an Iowa perspective) and lack of historical data.
But think about it. Who commissions these polls? Candidates, think tanks and media outlets. Virtually all serve the same .01%. Is there any reason that they, a) would not be conducting any polling or b) would not release poll numbers?