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Can anyone tell me why there is such a dearth of state polling? (Original Post) cali Feb 2016 OP
No one knows how. The pollsters are afraid of risking their reputations! Only HereSince1628 Feb 2016 #1
Differences in polling and vote counts have proved embarassing. Especially exit polling.nt Todays_Illusion Feb 2016 #2
Polling is supposed to be, in part, a tool against fraud in the vote count. n/t Skwmom Feb 2016 #4
That is why there is less of it now. Todays_Illusion Feb 2016 #7
ding, ding! nt restorefreedom Feb 2016 #15
Yes, that is *exactly* why they got rid of exit polling. kath Feb 2016 #21
How is the vote counted in SC and NV? Skwmom Feb 2016 #3
Good question. I don't know, but Nevada is a caucus state and cali Feb 2016 #5
Nevada Bagsgroove Feb 2016 #6
That is bullshit spin out of the Hillary camp. It's a solid poll. kristopher Feb 2016 #20
Just released poll: Sanders and Clinton in Nevada dead heat kristopher Feb 2016 #22
you'd think Nevada would have specialists in probability, odds, etc., hanging around zazen Feb 2016 #8
All these scientific polling statisticians aspirant Feb 2016 #9
Probably because nobody is paying for that polling. MineralMan Feb 2016 #10
Polling companies are bought and paid for, really? aspirant Feb 2016 #11
They are paid for their work. Did you think they do that MineralMan Feb 2016 #12
A common thread: aspirant Feb 2016 #13
Whatever you say. MineralMan Feb 2016 #14
i am surprised that the media restorefreedom Feb 2016 #16
The national media focuses mainly on national polling. MineralMan Feb 2016 #17
yeah i guess that makes sense.. restorefreedom Feb 2016 #18
At least for Nevada SheenaR Feb 2016 #19
In the case of Nevada, the official excuse is Le Taz Hot Feb 2016 #23

HereSince1628

(36,063 posts)
1. No one knows how. The pollsters are afraid of risking their reputations! Only
Sat Feb 13, 2016, 10:21 AM
Feb 2016

rightwing scags are producing obviously biased polls.

Don't ask for polls. If they are done they will be BAD!

--at least that's the meme being circulated

Bagsgroove

(231 posts)
6. Nevada
Sat Feb 13, 2016, 10:30 AM
Feb 2016

A lot of people have been wondering about that, particularly in the next Democratic contest in Nevada. The only recent polling there was conducted by a right-wing push-poll organization, and it's credibility is next to zero.

The problem (at least for Nevada) is that this will be only the third time they've held caucuses. Without more historical data, polling firms have almost no way of knowing who the "likely voters" will be. They'd rather do no polling at all than risk their reputations on prediction in an unpredictable place.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
20. That is bullshit spin out of the Hillary camp. It's a solid poll.
Sat Feb 13, 2016, 12:17 PM
Feb 2016

It is a poll done with a solid method and a large, well thought out sample that is weighted to favor Hillary (60% female).

Yes it is a right wing poll.

Yes it includes questions of the type that will find their way into push polls. Doing the research to find which memes are most effective is clearly the object of the poll.

Neither of those points - that it is by a right wind group or that it includes what will become push poll questions - has any bearing on the demographic and preference data that was collected before they began testing the push poll questions.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
22. Just released poll: Sanders and Clinton in Nevada dead heat
Sat Feb 13, 2016, 12:20 PM
Feb 2016
Poll: Sanders and Clinton in Nevada dead heat
by Jon Ralston Fri, 02/12/2016 - 08:12

Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are in a tight race to win Nevada, according to a poll taken this week.

The survey, paid for by the conservative Free Beacon, shows a 45-45 tie. It was conducted by TargetPoint of 1,236 potential Nevada caucusgoers from Feb. 8-10, with a margin of error just under 3 percent. That's a lot of interviews -- "867 interviews were completed using automated telephone technology and 369 were conducted using mobile phones," according to the polling instrument, which I have posted below along with the crosstabs.

<snip>

►Clinton loses on trust, 53-29; on who cares about people like you, 49-36; and who is progressive, 49-36. Danger, Will Robinson!

►The sample is almost 60 percent female (about what it as in '08), which ought to worry Clinton. Sanders leads 63-16 among young voters (18-29), and if there are a lot of youngsters who register on Caucus Day.... She's also losing among independents, as the Free Beacon reported.

https://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/poll-sanders-and-clinton-nevada-dead-heat

Full poll available at link

aspirant

(3,533 posts)
9. All these scientific polling statisticians
Sat Feb 13, 2016, 11:05 AM
Feb 2016

are now admitting they're neutered in Nevada, it's priceless.

They can't present their lame polls so close to each primary state election and be so obviously wrong without being laughed into oblivion.

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
10. Probably because nobody is paying for that polling.
Sat Feb 13, 2016, 11:25 AM
Feb 2016

Polling companies don't work for free. Generally, it's the media who pays them. Candidates also pay for polling, but that polling usually isn't released publicly.

Maybe you can commission a poll in some state that interests you. If you like, I can direct you to some polling companies.

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
12. They are paid for their work. Did you think they do that
Sat Feb 13, 2016, 11:35 AM
Feb 2016

as a free public service? Most publicly released polls are commissioned by the news media. Nobody works for free on stuff like that. What did you think?

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
14. Whatever you say.
Sat Feb 13, 2016, 11:50 AM
Feb 2016

Some polling is quite accurate as a predictor of the actual results. I'm just pointing out that all polls are paid for by someone. It costs money to conduct a poll. Nobody's doing it for free.

I'm not defending anyone, nor attacking anyone. I'm just stating the facts. My opinion is that some polling companies do a more accurate job than others. I find polling to be useful, but not influential to me. I don't form my decisions based on them, but I do watch them to see how things are developing. That's because I'm interested in politics. I get one vote, though, just like everyone else.

restorefreedom

(12,655 posts)
16. i am surprised that the media
Sat Feb 13, 2016, 11:54 AM
Feb 2016

is not interested in more state by state polling, since the national stuff doesn't really matter all that much.

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
17. The national media focuses mainly on national polling.
Sat Feb 13, 2016, 12:00 PM
Feb 2016

Typically, in-state polls are commissioned by news media in a particular state. In Minnesota, for example, the most recent polling for the primary race for President was commissioned by the Minneapolis Star-Tribune.

The national media often reports the results of such polling, but less often commissions such polls.

The best source for state-wide Democratic primary polls I've found is:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/dem_pres_primary/

restorefreedom

(12,655 posts)
18. yeah i guess that makes sense..
Sat Feb 13, 2016, 12:02 PM
Feb 2016

although given the obsession of the three cable outfits, i would think they would be able to pay for a few upcoming state polls, or at leaat better report the ones that are done

thanks for the link!

Le Taz Hot

(22,271 posts)
23. In the case of Nevada, the official excuse is
Sat Feb 13, 2016, 12:24 PM
Feb 2016

that it's too difficult to poll Nevada because of their unique caucus system (unique from an Iowa perspective) and lack of historical data.

But think about it. Who commissions these polls? Candidates, think tanks and media outlets. Virtually all serve the same .01%. Is there any reason that they, a) would not be conducting any polling or b) would not release poll numbers?

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