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Chichiri

(4,667 posts)
Sat Feb 13, 2016, 03:48 PM Feb 2016

State of the Primary - February 13, 2016

[font color="blue"]Delegate Count
Total Delegates (AP): Clinton 394, Sanders 44.
Pledged Delegates: Sanders 36, Clinton 32.
Delegate Targets (Cook): Clinton +7, Sanders -7.

Next Primary
Nevada, February 20 (35 pledged delegates).

Latest Polls
Nevada (TargetPoint): Clinton 45, Sanders 45.

Current Polls-Plus Projections (538)
Nevada: Clinton/Sanders 50%.
South Carolina: Clinton 95%.
Michigan: Clinton 97%.
North Carolina: Clinton 96%.

Current Endorsement Score (538)
Clinton 467, Sanders 2.[/font]

[font color="brown"]Quick Glance at the GOP
Pledged Delegates: Trump 17, Cruz 11, Rubio 10.
Delegate Targets: Trump -4, Cruz -5, Rubio -10.
538 South Carolina Projection: Trump 64%, Rubio 15%.
Endorsement Score: Rubio 65, Bush 51, Kasich 20.[/font]

Comments
That TargetPoint poll is a pro-Sanders push poll conducted by the far-right Washington Free Beacon. 538's projection is based on it, however, because it's the only recent poll.

This is a daily sheet I started to compile a few days ago, just for my own reference. My qualifications for objectivity are a similar project I ran in the 2012 general election, as well as the fact that I relied on subjective information in 2004 and was completely blindsided when Kerry lost. I intended to post this in the Hillary Clinton group, but I'll give it a pilot test in GD-P, and we'll see if both sides deem it useful (and can keep it civil and stuff). If you have a suggestion for a scorecard or model not covered above, let me know.

[font color="purple"]Pun of the Day
I don't know why the calendar maker fired me. All I did was take a day off![/font]


9 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Time expired
This information is useful, and belongs in GD:P.
8 (89%)
This information is useful, but belongs in the Hillary group (and I'll say why in the comments).
0 (0%)
This information is not useful (and I'll say why in the comments).
1 (11%)
Show usernames
Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll
18 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
State of the Primary - February 13, 2016 (Original Post) Chichiri Feb 2016 OP
Just for the record............ leftofcool Feb 2016 #1
Just for the record, I'm curious what color code you used for that reddish font Bucky Feb 2016 #2
Brown. Chichiri Feb 2016 #3
I see what you did there. kjones Feb 2016 #15
K&R. I appreciate the work you have done. JonLeibowitz Feb 2016 #4
There are no facts, only interpretations. Friedrich Nietzsche Tierra_y_Libertad Feb 2016 #5
Thanks for the info! Lucinda Feb 2016 #6
As we go further in the primary season... yallerdawg Feb 2016 #7
I'm optimistic that Bernie supporters will be cool with it. Chichiri Feb 2016 #8
Well... yallerdawg Feb 2016 #12
It is helpful to see the ACTUAL pledged delegate count that does not include superdelegates. jillan Feb 2016 #9
Yeah, I thought you guys would like it. Chichiri Feb 2016 #11
Thanks for doing this. Nice summary. livetohike Feb 2016 #10
My pleasure. Chichiri Feb 2016 #16
there is a great Les McCann song olddots Feb 2016 #13
If that's feedback, I'm not sure what you're trying to say. nt Chichiri Feb 2016 #14
Good stuff JustAnotherGen Feb 2016 #17
You betcha. nt Chichiri Feb 2016 #18

leftofcool

(19,460 posts)
1. Just for the record............
Sat Feb 13, 2016, 03:55 PM
Feb 2016

That Nevada poll is a Republican push poll and has a rating of about 0.42% of being accurate according to Nate Silver.

Bucky

(54,027 posts)
2. Just for the record, I'm curious what color code you used for that reddish font
Sat Feb 13, 2016, 03:59 PM
Feb 2016

I appreciate someone who takes the time to make their posting flow so effectively to the eye.

yallerdawg

(16,104 posts)
7. As we go further in the primary season...
Sat Feb 13, 2016, 04:20 PM
Feb 2016

you'll probably have to move this entirely to a Group posting.

Chichiri

(4,667 posts)
8. I'm optimistic that Bernie supporters will be cool with it.
Sat Feb 13, 2016, 04:26 PM
Feb 2016

Maybe I'm naive, but I think that, in the end, they'd rather know than not know.

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