It's the other way around.

That is awesome.

I'd expect to see Romney assume a 3 - 4 point lead by Monday unless the job data has stemmed the tide.

Obama hasn't really dropped any from his 49-50 baseline. How does Romney take a lead when Obama hasn't declined? Their totals can't add to more than 100%.

Secondly these bumps tend to be impulses coming in over a day or two. So trend won't likely be linear.

I'm a terminal pessimist.

Much harder to be disappointed that way.

Water on all positive news. If you think Romney will assume the lead then fine. Don't feel the need to throw water on every bit of good news. Besides, for months Gallup was always Obama's weakest poll.

But I'm clinging to any positive news at all. Any glimmer that shows that maybe Obama did not ruin his chances to win. Just as I begin to feel a little better ( not that he is going to have a huge lead but that he might possibly survive this) there is someone there to throw cold water.

I think Obama can now bounce back hugely with the second debate, assuming there's no bad news between now and then, or Biden doesn't get demolished by Ryan (that would be very problematic, and it wouldn't have been had Obama at least appeared a bit more alive). Lift from the Reagan model: After a narcoleptic first performance, bound out all bright and breezy and make a joke about Romney's many personas.

State polls, GOTV operation, etc.