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Rilgin

(787 posts)
Tue Feb 16, 2016, 12:26 PM Feb 2016

The GOP will attack our nominee. However, one of the candidates has high unfavorables already.

Last edited Tue Feb 16, 2016, 01:26 PM - Edit history (1)

The GOP will attack and it will certainly leave marks and affect the vote. Just like our candidate will defend and attack the GOP and we will leave marks and affect the vote.

The difference between Sanders and Clinton is that the GOP does not even have to attack her to have polls show that her unfavorable outweigh her favorables. Understand that. It is not the General Election and Hillary already has high unfavorable and the polls show that people view her as dishonest. This is very high in the Republicans and Independents but also exists in the Democratic Party who already proved this ambivalence by not nominating her back in 2008 when she was the sure thing. I think this mostly stems from her Iraq War Vote but is buoyed by the clear division between the corporatist centrists and the leftists in the Democratic Party.

So stop worrying about whether Bernie will hold up to GOP attacks and understand that we know Hillary can not hold up even if they do not attack her. Sure they will attack Bernie but they do not even have to attack her for her to have high unfavorable. With the openings she has given the GOP in the emails and payments for her speeches, they will have fertile ground to actually attack her. And god forbid if more comes out on the foundation or the emails or she continues to have real legal problems at the FBI.

The issue is not Bernie and the question whether his high favorable and perception of honesty will hold up to attack. The issue is Hillary has already been tested and has high unfavorable with Republicans and Independents and causes ambivalence within the democratic party itself. It has already been proved. Worrying if Bernie can hold up is worrying if you car battery has juice after someone spiked the motor so it will not run.

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The GOP will attack our nominee. However, one of the candidates has high unfavorables already. (Original Post) Rilgin Feb 2016 OP
The other part of this EmperorHasNoClothes Feb 2016 #1
Agree Rilgin Feb 2016 #2
I disagree. I think it's hard to get people back once you've lost them Jarqui Feb 2016 #3
I believe the GOP wants to run against Bernie Sanders. FarPoint Feb 2016 #4
Did you even read my post? Rilgin Feb 2016 #6
I read your weak post.... FarPoint Feb 2016 #12
Yes We disagree. You wrote we agree. Your opinion is your opinion. Rilgin Feb 2016 #13
And yet Obama beat her in 2008 EmperorHasNoClothes Feb 2016 #10
What a difference a day makes.... FarPoint Feb 2016 #11
She's already a lightning rod. JudyM Feb 2016 #5
But the attack ads on Sanders write themselves Gothmog Feb 2016 #7
Yes they will run ads against him and your point is? Rilgin Feb 2016 #8
You do realize that Rove is already throwing everything he has against Clinton in the primaries Gothmog Feb 2016 #14
You ignore my point. Address the fact that Hillary has unfavorables NOW. I understand yours. Rilgin Feb 2016 #16
Addition Rilgin Feb 2016 #17
you make a good point. bbgrunt Feb 2016 #9
If she's the nominee she will go up in flames hifiguy Feb 2016 #15

EmperorHasNoClothes

(4,797 posts)
1. The other part of this
Tue Feb 16, 2016, 12:33 PM
Feb 2016

She has been prominent on the national stage for 25 years. At this point everyone has pretty much decided what they think of her, making it that much more difficult to shift those opinions.

Although Bernie has been in national politics just as long, he hasn't been such a prominent figure except among strong progressives. There is still a lot of room for many people out there to form positive opinions of him, and he currently has net positives which gives him a better starting point.

Rilgin

(787 posts)
2. Agree
Tue Feb 16, 2016, 12:39 PM
Feb 2016

I actually think its more likely that his favorable will go down some but I think it is impossible for Hillary's to move upwards.

Attacks on his honesty are likely to fail mostly because he is so consistent and is believable. However, they will call him a radical and attack him on taxes. The same garbage that Hillary and her surrogates are throwing. I think it will work on the Republicans so his numbers will go down and the Republicans will reclaim some Independents. However, it is hard to see him ever going to negative numbers on honesty and favorable.

Your point on Hillary is exactly correct. She is known and it will be very hard for her favorable to move far. It is this fact that Hillary supporters can not even acknowledge to themselves but must feel as cognitive dissonance. If they acknowledged it, they would not be able to actually support her since so much of her claim is based on electability or electability as the first woman.

Jarqui

(10,130 posts)
3. I disagree. I think it's hard to get people back once you've lost them
Tue Feb 16, 2016, 12:40 PM
Feb 2016

Hillary has lot a lot of folks so she's got a low ceiling.

But there's lots of room in Hillary's numbers to dislike her or not trust her more. Her numbers can get worse.

She talks about being vetted but she really hasn't been fully vetted. She's only run two campaigns against the GOP in Democratically safe New York. She hasn't fully faced the wolves.

Does anyone really think they're going to stop at Benghazi? Emails, Clinton Foundation and whatever else they've dug up is what is coming - on top of her 25 years of flip-flops, lies, etc.

Anyone buying this crap that she's already been vetted is kidding themselves. The GOP isn't even warmed up.

FarPoint

(12,444 posts)
4. I believe the GOP wants to run against Bernie Sanders.
Tue Feb 16, 2016, 12:49 PM
Feb 2016

Over 25 years, they still can't beat the Clintons. It is not for lack of trying on a daily basis either and spending millions, and millions of taxpayer funds trying... . Bernie Sanders is not a national figure and appears to them as an equal to their pool of candidates.

Yes, I agree that Hillary has been tested and beat them at every wave of false allegations.

Rilgin

(787 posts)
6. Did you even read my post?
Tue Feb 16, 2016, 12:53 PM
Feb 2016

She has higher unfavorables than favorable. More people in this country already view her unfavorably. Polls show that the word most often associated with her is dishonest.

She has not beaten anything. She is considered dishonest and the General Election has not even started yet.

FarPoint

(12,444 posts)
12. I read your weak post....
Tue Feb 16, 2016, 02:13 PM
Feb 2016

the bucket has several holes in it....Hillary has never been beaten by the GOP harassment squad.

That said...Bernie Sanders has yet to be challenged by the GOP at least on a national level. Believe me, they are ready to stake him hard if they get their way and have Bernie Sanders as their opponent. They are praying for him to be the nominee.

EmperorHasNoClothes

(4,797 posts)
10. And yet Obama beat her in 2008
Tue Feb 16, 2016, 01:33 PM
Feb 2016

The only national seat she has run for and won is Senator from a fairly left-leaning state. The same issues that allowed Obama to beat her are still present this year, and Obama was arguably a weaker candidate that Bernie is, at least in terms of experience on the national stage.

FarPoint

(12,444 posts)
11. What a difference a day makes....
Tue Feb 16, 2016, 02:11 PM
Feb 2016

Now, President Obama will be supporting Hillary......not Bernie Sanders. I sense President Obama has been supporting her all along through the back door.

JudyM

(29,279 posts)
5. She's already a lightning rod.
Tue Feb 16, 2016, 12:52 PM
Feb 2016

The rethugs are going to have a much easier time getting out their voters *against her* as opposed to *for* their eventual candidate.

I hate to say this, it's not intended as a smear, but I've been thinking that they are going to trot out the spectre of letting Bill back into the White House for more sexual escapades as a way to further rally their voters... So it's not just Hillary they're running against, it's also all of Bill's baggage, as well, including his "it depends what the meaning of 'is' is"... There is so much ammunition waiting in storage for Hillary.

Gothmog

(145,567 posts)
7. But the attack ads on Sanders write themselves
Tue Feb 16, 2016, 01:12 PM
Feb 2016

The attack ads from this appearance on Meet the Press write themselves https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/10/12/why-bernie-sanders-isnt-going-to-be-president-in-5-words/

Meet the Press ✔ @meetthepress
CHUCK TODD: Are you a capitalist?@BernieSanders: No. I'm a Democratic Socialist.
8:33 AM - 11 Oct 2015

And, in those five words, Sanders showed why — no matter how much energy there is for him on the liberal left — he isn't getting elected president.

Why? Because Democrat or Republican (or independent), capitalism remains a pretty popular concept — especially when compared to socialism. A 2011 Pew Research Center survey showed that 50 percent of people had a favorable view of capitalism, while 40 percent had an unfavorable one. Of socialism, just three in 10 had a positive opinion, while 61 percent saw it in a negative light.

Wrote Pew in a memo analyzing the results:

Of these terms, socialism is the more politically polarizing — the reaction is almost universally negative among conservatives, while generally positive among liberals. While there are substantial differences in how liberals and conservatives think of capitalism, the gaps are far narrower.

...The simple political fact is that if Sanders did ever manage to win the Democratic presidential nomination — a long shot but far from a no shot at this point — Republicans would simply clip Sanders's answer to Todd above and put it in a 30-second TV ad. That would, almost certainly, be the end of Sanders's viability in a general election.

Americans might be increasingly aware of the economic inequality in the country and increasingly suspicious of so-called vulture capitalism — all of which has helped fuel Sanders's rise. But we are not electing someone who is an avowed socialist to the nation's top political job. Just ain't happening.

You can try to argue that the two terms are not the same but that will not stop the Kochs from running $200 milion to $300 million using that term in negative ads that would be very effective.

Rilgin

(787 posts)
8. Yes they will run ads against him and your point is?
Tue Feb 16, 2016, 01:22 PM
Feb 2016

Is your point that if they run ads they might cause him to be as unfavorable as Hillary already is?

I say we bet on a non sure thing. It is not sure that he will have unfavorables under that attack. He is starting from a strong position.

It is a guarantee that Hillary will be viewed unfavorably but you keep ignoring it. The kocks will spend 200 million against Hillary too if she is the nominee but they do not have to. She is already viewed unfavorably by the population in general, is the devil to Republicans and is viewed with mixed feelings by the Democratic Party. This is before any of the attacks which you say are coming and which there is ample further ammunition.

I think you are right that his favorables will fall. How much is a question. However, we already know the answer on Hillary. Again, you just ignore that. You are supporting a candidate that is in the place the Kochs would try to get Bernie too. It is not a guarantee that they can tarnish Bernie but it is a guarantee that they can Hillary because she already has high unfavorables.

Gothmog

(145,567 posts)
14. You do realize that Rove is already throwing everything he has against Clinton in the primaries
Wed Feb 17, 2016, 06:14 PM
Feb 2016

Rove has determined that Sanders would be the weakest possible Democratic nominee and so has been running negative ads against Clinton in Iowa, NH and Nevada. For example, the ads in Iowa were normal Karl Rove lies http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hillary-clinton-flattered-karl-rove-attack-ad/story?id=36343405

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton laughed off a new attack ad from a Republican super PAC run by Karl Rove during an interview Sunday on “This Week” with George Stephanopoulos.

The web spot, titled “Hillary’s Bull Market,” was launched by American Crossroads, which is run by the Republican strategist and former President George W. Bush adviser. After watching the ad for the first time during her interview on “This Week,” Clinton just smiled.

“I think it shows how desperate the Republicans are to prevent me from becoming the nominee,” Clinton said about the ad, which goes after her ties to Wall Street. “I find that, in a perverse way, an incredibly flattering comment on their anxiety, because they know that not only will I stand up for what the country needs, I will take it to the Republicans.”

In Nevada, Rove is accusing Clinton of being anti-immigrant http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/269460-rove-super-pac-links-clinton-to-trump-on-immigration-in

The super-PAC founded by Republican operative Karl Rove is running a provocative new attack ad in Nevada designed to paint Hillary Clinton as anti-immigrant.

American Crossroads is launching a digital ad titled "Hillary's Wall" that attempts to tie some of Clinton's harsher past remarks about immigration to those of Donald Trump, the current Republican front-runner.
In one scene in the commercial, influential Univision anchor Jorge Ramos asks Clinton, "What's the difference between your idea and Donald Trump's idea on building a wall?"

Preceding that moment are clips - all subtitled in Spanish - that show Clinton making tough comments about immigration that could now alienate large sections of the Democratic base.

Sanders would be a far weaker general election candidate which is why Rove is targeting Clinton.

What more do you think that Rove has to throw at Clinton that he has not used so far in Iowa. Clinton is surviving the worse that Rove can throw at her and is still doing well in these races. Again, the claims that Rove is holding back on Clinton is amusing.

Why do you think that Rove is spending so much to attack Clinton in these primaries?

Rilgin

(787 posts)
16. You ignore my point. Address the fact that Hillary has unfavorables NOW. I understand yours.
Wed Feb 17, 2016, 07:14 PM
Feb 2016

Yes. Hillary claims that the Republicans are spending so much attacking her now. They always cite to Karl Rove as though that proves anything. He is not airing ads. American Crossroads has a web site that attacks lots of democrats including Hillary. Yes he attacks her so what. Its not because they think she is a good candidate just the most likely one.

The first reason they go after Hillary now is she is a lightning rod for Republicans. That is our point. She is red meat to the Republicans and will be that if she loses or wins the primary. It helps their fund raising in the republican party base just like we attack George Bush and Cheney still even though they are not running at all.

The second reason they attack her besides history and the fact that they can fundraise off her is till recently she was considered the inevitable candidate. Parties and political players start building memes a year ahead for candidates they consider relevant. When Bernie started and till recently he was thought to have NO chance so they dont attack him.

Hillary attacks Trump. Do you think its because she wants to run against Rubio or Kasich btw? But she polls well against Trump. Dont you think under your logic she would be going after Cruz?

You know the answers to these questions and your single point already.

Candidates always run against the frontrunner. If Bernie ends up the candidate, the Republicans will start attacking him. That is your point and its one pretty obvious and meaningless point. Yes, they will attack Bernie but they will attack Hillary and they will attack every candidate for the house senate and dog catcher who has a d next to their name.

You know the answers to your questions and single point already. Now see if you can address my point rather than just assert that Republicans will attack Bernie if he is the nominee and expressing an opinion that it will lower his unfavorables.

You do know that is the sole purpose of attack ads ... to lower the opponents unfavorables. Why would you want to have a nominee who already starts with high unfavorables.

Rilgin

(787 posts)
17. Addition
Wed Feb 17, 2016, 07:40 PM
Feb 2016

To add to my point. Now that Bernie is considered possible as a nominee, they are starting to attack him too. Which is the point you ignore, its not because Hillary is the best candidate its because of likelihood.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511258961

 

hifiguy

(33,688 posts)
15. If she's the nominee she will go up in flames
Wed Feb 17, 2016, 06:47 PM
Feb 2016

in the GE and take the party with her. The Hindenburg will look like a damp squib in comparison. Even if she isn't indicted. She will severely depress turnout of the left/liberal base and be worth 1-3 million extra Repig votes from their suddenly- motivated cave Orc base.

And anyone who can't understand that is dumber than a sack of hammers.

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