2016 Postmortem

cali

(114,904 posts) Wed Feb 17, 2016, 08:49 AM Feb 2016

Why Bernie Sanders Wins Even If He Loses

Sen. Bernie Sanders’ trouncing of Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire was an enormous psychological victory, but what about under the hood? If you look at the delegates right now, it’s a little less dramatic: Sanders picked up 15 of New Hampshire’s delegates. Clinton got nine. Including the haul from the Iowa caucuses, Sanders has 36 and Clinton 32—a lead, yes, but just a drop in the bucket in the total number needed for victory: 2,382.

So that’s good news for Hillary, right? Not quite. When you look at the Democrats’ rules for winning a primary, you can see a very different picture coming into focus: a delegate knife fight, which could lead to a fractious convention.

There are no “winner take all” states in the Democratic primaries. Every state allocates delegates on a proportional basis. So even if Clinton rights her ship and starts racking up clear primary wins—likely, considering that Sanders has yet to prove himself in racially diverse territory—her victories could be as thin as his in terms of delegates. The primary system is set up perfectly for a strong insurgent candidacy, someone with enough money and enthusiasm to keep pulling big chunks of voters in state after state, to carry clout all the way to the convention. And if he does, he could use it to reshape the White House ticket, and even the future direction of the party.

The Democrats’ formula for distributing delegates is downright socialist. While candidates get extra delegates for winning statewide, most delegates are distributed by candidate performance within congressional districts. Most districts offer four to six delegates. In most cases, those congressional district delegates will be divided evenly or, in districts with five delegates, in a 3-2 split. To win bigger delegate spreads, candidates have to score supermajorities of at least 63 percent within a congressional district. Opening up a wide lead against a persistent opponent with a stubborn base of support is impossible.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/02/bernie-sanders-2016-delegates-nomination-convention-213622#ixzz40QfLoGlU

5 replies

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Why Bernie Sanders Wins Even If He Loses (Original Post) cali Feb 2016 OP

Same thing is happening to the Republicans. PatrickforO Feb 2016 #1

Quite true. It's never been about him, but about his populist principles and policies. Mister Ed Feb 2016 #2

K & R !!! WillyT Feb 2016 #3

Message auto-removed Name removed Feb 2016 #4

All I can say is... release the Kraken inside the convention nadinbrzezinski Feb 2016 #5

PatrickforO

(14,592 posts)

1. Same thing is happening to the Republicans.

Reply to cali (Original post)

Wed Feb 17, 2016, 08:55 AM

Feb 2016

I'm sick of the status quo. I'm tired of getting fucked by the establishment. I want single payer healthcare and the payroll tax cap lifted so we can have stronger Social Security. I want my grandkids to be able to get free tuition at state colleges, as many did in my day. When I first got into college, the state school I attended was $350/semester. Seriously. Why the bloody hell can't we INVEST in this new generation of kids.

So yeah, I'm ready to sign petitions, write, email, telephone and march for Bernie because I AGREE WITH EVERYTHING HE WANTS TO DO.

Mister Ed

(5,944 posts)

2. Quite true. It's never been about him, but about his populist principles and policies.

Reply to cali (Original post)

Wed Feb 17, 2016, 09:40 AM

Feb 2016

I think he's been fighting not to promote himself, but to make his populist principles into Democratic party policy, and then into U.S. policy. If he can do that from the Oval Office, fine. But he doesn't have to make it all the way to the presidency to accomplish his goal. He's accomplishing that goal already, and it looks as though he'll continue to. For my part, I'll continue to support him in his struggle.