2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumClinton leads in 10 out of 12 Super Tuesday and beyond states
Last edited Wed Feb 17, 2016, 12:59 PM - Edit history (2)
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/02/clinton-leads-in-10-of-12-early-march-primaries-benefits-from-overwhelming-black-support.htmlAlabama
Clinton 59%
Sanders 31%
Arkansas
Clinton 57%
Sanders 32%
Georgia
Clinton 60%
Sanders 26%
Louisiana
Clinton 60%
Sanders 29%
Massachusetts
Clinton 42%
Sanders 49%
Michigan
Clinton 50%
Sanders 40%
Mississippi
Clinton 60%
Sanders 26%
Oklahoma
Clinton 46%
Sanders 44%
Tennessee
Clinton 58%
Sanders 32%
Texas
Clinton 57%
Sanders 34%
Plus this
Clinton is benefiting in these states from overwhelming African American support. She leads by anywhere from 40-62 points among black voters in the nine of these states that have more black voters than the national average. Her support ranges from 63-74% with black voters in those states, while Sanders gets 12-23%:
Erich Bloodaxe BSN
(14,733 posts)No wonder she's leading in so many of them.
BeyondGeography
(39,380 posts)They count just the same in the delegate column.
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)And in most of these states the most reliable voters for Democrats in the general election are the ones who dominate the primary votes. Valiant effort, though.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)is that the overwhelmingly Democratic vote in these states are African-Americans who are staunch Democrats make up much of the Democratic primaries in the South-- but of course from your comments you are ignorant of that fact.
Erich Bloodaxe BSN
(14,733 posts)KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)The point is that right-wingers are not driving the primary. Those people are voting on the Republican side, not the Democratic one.
hoosierlib
(710 posts)Its pretty telling from the issue repsonses that most voters polled aren't paying attention yet...
jham123
(278 posts)All the Polls that are being published
"Registered Democrat with a landline"
Iowa and New Hampshire results...look at how many Independents came and voted. Many many many young people have no land line...I don't have a land line and I'm almost 52.....what's the use in a landline?? Telemarketers tool? A tool that "I" pay for?? Many old Dinosaurs cannot give up the Landline
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)casperthegm
(643 posts)Nope. Has Bernie been gaining on Hillary? Yep. Are Hillary, Bill, and the Super Pacs throwing the kitchen sink at Bernie? You know it. I suspect someone is starting to feel the Bern
speaktruthtopower
(800 posts)karynnj
(59,504 posts)I think Vermont is worth adding. I have never seen anyone poll 76 percent more in a non incumbent race in any state ever! It does say that Vermont Democrats and Democratic leaning Independents - the people who know Bernie best, like him. This matches the fact that I have not heard one person in Burlington that I know say they were for HRC. I know one person undecided between them - a woman in her 70s. Everyone else, including many many women over 65 are for Bernie. Most personally know Sanders.
It is also shocking that Clinton in losing MA.
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)Vermont
Clinton 10%
Sanders 86%
Virginia
Clinton 56%
Sanders 34%
DemocraticWing
(1,290 posts)Look, these numbers aren't "wrong" necessarily, although PPP has had a heavy house effect for Clinton in Iowa and New Hampshire. In Iowa they had her leading by 8% but she won by 0.2%. In New Hampshire their last poll had her leading by 3%, but she lost by 22%.
A lot of people, including Nate Silver, think it's because the robocall technique favors Clinton because of the people more likely to get samples.
All that being said, these numbers have to be taken into account. She is doing very well in many Super Tuesday states. But those primaries are not tomorrow, and Sanders is closing fast regardless of how far he is behind.
John Poet
(2,510 posts)compared with the rest of the country, with seven of the states having been part of the former Confederacy.
As things presently stand, I would expect Hillary to be leading after this bunch of states vote if her lead with African-Americans stands, and if they turn out as usual.
After that, things won't be as easy for her. Check out the map on this page:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_African-American_population