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KingFlorez

(12,689 posts)
Wed Feb 17, 2016, 12:21 PM Feb 2016

Clinton leads in 10 out of 12 Super Tuesday and beyond states

Last edited Wed Feb 17, 2016, 12:59 PM - Edit history (2)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/02/clinton-leads-in-10-of-12-early-march-primaries-benefits-from-overwhelming-black-support.html

Alabama

Clinton 59%
Sanders 31%

Arkansas

Clinton 57%
Sanders 32%

Georgia

Clinton 60%
Sanders 26%

Louisiana

Clinton 60%
Sanders 29%

Massachusetts

Clinton 42%
Sanders 49%

Michigan

Clinton 50%
Sanders 40%

Mississippi

Clinton 60%
Sanders 26%

Oklahoma

Clinton 46%
Sanders 44%

Tennessee

Clinton 58%
Sanders 32%

Texas

Clinton 57%
Sanders 34%

Plus this


Clinton is benefiting in these states from overwhelming African American support. She leads by anywhere from 40-62 points among black voters in the nine of these states that have more black voters than the national average. Her support ranges from 63-74% with black voters in those states, while Sanders gets 12-23%:

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Clinton leads in 10 out of 12 Super Tuesday and beyond states (Original Post) KingFlorez Feb 2016 OP
Didn't realize Super Tuesday was almost all far RW states. Erich Bloodaxe BSN Feb 2016 #1
Obama got the nomination in '08 by winning a lot of those states BeyondGeography Feb 2016 #2
Uh, it's Democrats that are voting, not Republicans KingFlorez Feb 2016 #4
Funny, how Obama won most of these states, too in08--what you are overlookin WI_DEM Feb 2016 #5
Clinton is no Obama. nt Erich Bloodaxe BSN Feb 2016 #8
That's not the point KingFlorez Feb 2016 #10
Will tighten after a Sanders win in NV and a close loss in SC... hoosierlib Feb 2016 #3
Remember jham123 Feb 2016 #6
Can't wait for super tuesday! workinclasszero Feb 2016 #7
Right now. But is it Super Tuesday yet? casperthegm Feb 2016 #9
She's leading in the states Dems lose speaktruthtopower Feb 2016 #11
You left out VT and Virginia karynnj Feb 2016 #12
I posted those numbers too, I'm not sure why they didn't show KingFlorez Feb 2016 #15
There's PPP doing work on behalf of a pro-Clinton PAC again... DemocraticWing Feb 2016 #13
Super Tuesday states are disproportionately African-American, John Poet Feb 2016 #14

BeyondGeography

(39,380 posts)
2. Obama got the nomination in '08 by winning a lot of those states
Wed Feb 17, 2016, 12:28 PM
Feb 2016

They count just the same in the delegate column.

KingFlorez

(12,689 posts)
4. Uh, it's Democrats that are voting, not Republicans
Wed Feb 17, 2016, 12:31 PM
Feb 2016

And in most of these states the most reliable voters for Democrats in the general election are the ones who dominate the primary votes. Valiant effort, though.

WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)
5. Funny, how Obama won most of these states, too in08--what you are overlookin
Wed Feb 17, 2016, 12:40 PM
Feb 2016

is that the overwhelmingly Democratic vote in these states are African-Americans who are staunch Democrats make up much of the Democratic primaries in the South-- but of course from your comments you are ignorant of that fact.

KingFlorez

(12,689 posts)
10. That's not the point
Wed Feb 17, 2016, 01:00 PM
Feb 2016

The point is that right-wingers are not driving the primary. Those people are voting on the Republican side, not the Democratic one.

 

hoosierlib

(710 posts)
3. Will tighten after a Sanders win in NV and a close loss in SC...
Wed Feb 17, 2016, 12:30 PM
Feb 2016

Its pretty telling from the issue repsonses that most voters polled aren't paying attention yet...

jham123

(278 posts)
6. Remember
Wed Feb 17, 2016, 12:45 PM
Feb 2016

All the Polls that are being published

"Registered Democrat with a landline"

Iowa and New Hampshire results...look at how many Independents came and voted. Many many many young people have no land line...I don't have a land line and I'm almost 52.....what's the use in a landline?? Telemarketers tool? A tool that "I" pay for?? Many old Dinosaurs cannot give up the Landline

casperthegm

(643 posts)
9. Right now. But is it Super Tuesday yet?
Wed Feb 17, 2016, 12:59 PM
Feb 2016

Nope. Has Bernie been gaining on Hillary? Yep. Are Hillary, Bill, and the Super Pacs throwing the kitchen sink at Bernie? You know it. I suspect someone is starting to feel the Bern

karynnj

(59,504 posts)
12. You left out VT and Virginia
Wed Feb 17, 2016, 01:20 PM
Feb 2016

I think Vermont is worth adding. I have never seen anyone poll 76 percent more in a non incumbent race in any state ever! It does say that Vermont Democrats and Democratic leaning Independents - the people who know Bernie best, like him. This matches the fact that I have not heard one person in Burlington that I know say they were for HRC. I know one person undecided between them - a woman in her 70s. Everyone else, including many many women over 65 are for Bernie. Most personally know Sanders.

It is also shocking that Clinton in losing MA.

KingFlorez

(12,689 posts)
15. I posted those numbers too, I'm not sure why they didn't show
Wed Feb 17, 2016, 01:28 PM
Feb 2016

Vermont

Clinton 10%
Sanders 86%

Virginia

Clinton 56%
Sanders 34%

DemocraticWing

(1,290 posts)
13. There's PPP doing work on behalf of a pro-Clinton PAC again...
Wed Feb 17, 2016, 01:20 PM
Feb 2016

Look, these numbers aren't "wrong" necessarily, although PPP has had a heavy house effect for Clinton in Iowa and New Hampshire. In Iowa they had her leading by 8% but she won by 0.2%. In New Hampshire their last poll had her leading by 3%, but she lost by 22%.

A lot of people, including Nate Silver, think it's because the robocall technique favors Clinton because of the people more likely to get samples.

All that being said, these numbers have to be taken into account. She is doing very well in many Super Tuesday states. But those primaries are not tomorrow, and Sanders is closing fast regardless of how far he is behind.

 

John Poet

(2,510 posts)
14. Super Tuesday states are disproportionately African-American,
Wed Feb 17, 2016, 01:22 PM
Feb 2016

compared with the rest of the country, with seven of the states having been part of the former Confederacy.

As things presently stand, I would expect Hillary to be leading after this bunch of states vote if her lead with African-Americans stands, and if they turn out as usual.

After that, things won't be as easy for her. Check out the map on this page:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_African-American_population





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