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UglyGreed

(7,661 posts)
Thu Feb 18, 2016, 02:20 PM Feb 2016

Clinton’s Lead Has Evaporated in Nevada and Her Supporters Are Panicking

HillaryWorld is feeling the Bern.
BY TINA NGUYEN
For months, pundits have marked Nevada in the “win” column for Hillary Clinton, who was thought to hold an unassailable lead with the state’s large Hispanic population. But according to a new poll, Clinton might not win Nevada in the landslide that everyone predicted. In fact, she might not win it at all.

Somehow, while everyone was focused on the showdown between her and Bernie Sanders scheduled to take place in South Carolina next week, the gap between the two Democratic rivals had quietly narrowed from 23 points in December to a gut-rendering one point in a CNN/ORC poll released on Wednesday, just three days before the caucus.

Allies in Clinton’s orbit are panicking, according to The Hill, as the campaign prepares for the possibility of losing a state that one Democrat strategist called “tailor-made” for Clinton. Latinos have long been considered a key part of Clinton’s supposed minority firewall, which her campaign is relying on to fend off Sanders, whose victories in in New Hampshire and Iowa were driven by white voters, but political observers everywhere will now have to revisit that assumption. “I don’t get it. I don’t think anyone expected this race to look like this,” one former Clinton aide said.

http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/02/hillary-clinton-nevada-bernie-sanders

Hope Vanity Fair passes the smell test

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Clinton’s Lead Has Evaporated in Nevada and Her Supporters Are Panicking (Original Post) UglyGreed Feb 2016 OP
They should panic. Nothing is certain in this primary race. Nothing. morningfog Feb 2016 #1
its a wretched thing to take people for granted, to assume that people will follow you no roguevalley Feb 2016 #15
She's up 6 here... artyteacher Feb 2016 #2
Gravis had Hillary up 53-42 in Iowa....so thanks for the good news for Bernie virtualobserver Feb 2016 #3
+ a lot; Gravis is horrible. Horrible polling methodology. nt stillwaiting Feb 2016 #4
This message was self-deleted by its author AZ Progressive Feb 2016 #6
Except Gravis has proven to be off by 8-10 points, so... reformist2 Feb 2016 #12
Maybe they can start by not referring to minorities as a "firewall"? EmperorHasNoClothes Feb 2016 #5
Well, 'firewall' polled better than 'superpredators'....[n/t] Maedhros Feb 2016 #7
Gut rendering? Jane Austin Feb 2016 #8
I noticed that too. kath Feb 2016 #16
Vanity Fair is the Drudge Report in drag! senz Feb 2016 #9
LOL!! Fawke Em Feb 2016 #10
Doh!!! I knew I would run into a problem UglyGreed Feb 2016 #11
I wish he had a huge lead so she can't steal it like she did Iowa. in_cog_ni_to Feb 2016 #13
"If HRC doesn't win by 15 pts., the shit will hit the fan." Divernan Feb 2016 #14
The "panic" not be as bad as you think. 538 has Clinton's win chances at 75% now that Persondem Feb 2016 #17
Thanks for the kick UglyGreed Feb 2016 #18
Anytime, now that CLINTON HAS A 75% CHANCE TO WIN NV!! Persondem Feb 2016 #20
Thanks again UglyGreed Feb 2016 #21
Nawww I like this one. CLINTON 75% - Sanders 25% for the WIN IN NEVADA!!! YEAH!!! Persondem Feb 2016 #22
No surprise to me UglyGreed Feb 2016 #23
Huge K & R !!! WillyT Feb 2016 #19

roguevalley

(40,656 posts)
15. its a wretched thing to take people for granted, to assume that people will follow you no
Thu Feb 18, 2016, 03:24 PM
Feb 2016

matter how much your platform doesn't help them just because. This is hubris being handed back to HRC, the presumption that she could take them for granted. They like all other Americans will vote for their own best interests and she doesn't supply that.

Response to virtualobserver (Reply #3)

in_cog_ni_to

(41,600 posts)
13. I wish he had a huge lead so she can't steal it like she did Iowa.
Thu Feb 18, 2016, 02:54 PM
Feb 2016

Everyone take video and pictures! TRUST NO ONE....ESPECIALLY FROM THE CLINTON CAMP.

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

Divernan

(15,480 posts)
14. "If HRC doesn't win by 15 pts., the shit will hit the fan."
Thu Feb 18, 2016, 02:55 PM
Feb 2016

More from OP link:

No matter how Nevada shakes out on Saturday, anything less than a Clinton blowout could be disastrous for her campaign, especially in a state that was once so obviously one-sided that no one had bothered to poll there since December 2015. Even if Clinton ekes out a narrow win, much like she did in Iowa, the fact that Sanders was even close will prove that his minority outreach is working, giving him added momentum going into the South Carolina Democratic primary one week later. Or, as one friend of the Clintons put it in more colorful, relatable terms to The Hill: “The shit will hit the fan.

The surprising surge of Sanders in Nevada has only added to speculation that much like Barack Obama in 2008, the crotchety Vermont senator could present a strong challenge to Clinton’s once-inevitable nomination, if not snatch it from her outright. Statistics guru Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight has even laid out a numerical path to a Sanders victory, projecting how much he needs to outperform expectations to secure the nomination. In Nevada, assuming she holds a 12-point lead nationally, Hillary should be winning by 15 points. That may not be happening anymore. If it doesn’t, that could mean Clinton is in for one hell of a fight.
Tina Nguyen is a political reporter for VanityFair.com. Follow her on Twitter @Tina_Nguyen.
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Hill's campaign team will be putting on their Haz-Mat suits in 10. . .9. . . 8. . .

Persondem

(1,936 posts)
17. The "panic" not be as bad as you think. 538 has Clinton's win chances at 75% now that
Thu Feb 18, 2016, 06:06 PM
Feb 2016

a couple of new polls have been released. That's up from a 50/50 tossup a few days ago.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/nevada-democratic/



UglyGreed

(7,661 posts)
23. No surprise to me
Thu Feb 18, 2016, 07:26 PM
Feb 2016

and others like fellow DU member grntuscarora who has been hurt by fracking....... carry on.

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