2016 Postmortem

WI_DEM

(33,497 posts) Mon Oct 8, 2012, 11:32 PM Oct 2012

Kos' Polling Wrap makes a good point about the upcoming Gallup 'likely voter' screen'

And, as a fitting coda to a complete perplexing day, Gallup is apparently going to debut their likely voter screen tomorrow, and that shift from registered voters to LVs will move the race to a dead heat. Of course, Gallup's likely voter screen has a pretty chequered past. It crapped the bed a little bit in 2008, when it overestimated Barack Obama's margin of victory by four points. But then the likely voter screen for Gallup really took a dump in 2010, when their RV/LV gap on the generic ballot was a cartoonish eleven points. Among registered voters, Gallup saw an R+4 electorate. Among "likely voters", Gallup saw an R+15 electorate.

The final outcome? R+6. So...yeah, let's say that the assumptions made in likely voter screens can be, shall we say, a little off.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/08/1141322/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Polling-Wrap-Did-Obama-weather-the-first-debate-storm?showAll=yes

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Kos' Polling Wrap makes a good point about the upcoming Gallup 'likely voter' screen' (Original Post) WI_DEM Oct 2012 OP

My guess obama will be up by 2 hrmjustin Oct 2012 #1

I wouldn't be surprised with a tie... regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #2

my fav the pew pol 1200 skewed right... litlbilly Oct 2012 #3

hrmjustin

(71,265 posts)

1. My guess obama will be up by 2

Reply to WI_DEM (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 11:35 PM

Oct 2012

regnaD kciN

(26,044 posts)

2. I wouldn't be surprised with a tie...

Reply to hrmjustin (Reply #1)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 12:12 AM

Oct 2012

Since 10/1, apparently a big Obama polling day, will be falling out of the sample, replaced by whatever today recorded.

You can count on one thing, though: even if it's only a reduced lead, any narrowing, combined with the taken-on-Thursday-and-Friday PPP/dKos poll -- which we already know will show Romney in the lead -- will result in another new round of Mittgasms in the corporate media. I suspect staying away from here tomorrow, unless you want to be spending all your time in what will probably be a vain attempt to stop the panic.

litlbilly

(2,227 posts)

3. my fav the pew pol 1200 skewed right...

Reply to WI_DEM (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 12:16 AM

Oct 2012

if they poll 1200 people and 81% are to the right, and your'e guy ends up only ahead by
5, what does that say? Even messing with the polls from the right leaning ones, they can't seem to change things much. I guess the MSM has to have a close race, they don't want
to lose all that ad revenue. Lets hope Joe does what he can do and Obama can follow him with some spunk as well. Can't wait till this is over and we get rid of all the crazies and the cranks like that guy from Austrailia said.

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