2016 Postmortem

lebkuchen

(10,716 posts) Tue Oct 9, 2012, 12:01 PM Oct 2012

Finally, a ND Senate poll, updated from July--Heitkamp has improved to a tie!!

In July she was down 9 points to Berg. If that isn't a bellwether, I don't know what is.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/nd/north_dakota_senate_berg_vs_heitkamp-3212.html

We must bring in Dem senators in ND, MT, NV, AZ, WI, MA, IN, and CT! We can sweep this!

8 replies

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Finally, a ND Senate poll, updated from July--Heitkamp has improved to a tie!! (Original Post) lebkuchen Oct 2012 OP

The republican is not very liked in the state. He won his only term in the house in 2010. hrmjustin Oct 2012 #1

Still, I think his 9 point lead in July and now 9 point loss is a testament lebkuchen Oct 2012 #2

the gop thought as did the democrats at the beginning of the cycle that the seat was... hrmjustin Oct 2012 #3

Interesting. Its good news but not really a change. The same firm had the same numbers in June. grantcart Oct 2012 #4

True, though organizations predicting elections take both Rasmussen and Mason/Dixon into account lebkuchen Oct 2012 #6

In cases like this there is just no way of knowing because there aren't enough polls. grantcart Oct 2012 #7

Go Heidi Go! progressoid Oct 2012 #5

There are people in North Dakota? Arkana Oct 2012 #8

hrmjustin

(71,265 posts)

1. The republican is not very liked in the state. He won his only term in the house in 2010.

Reply to lebkuchen (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 12:06 PM

Oct 2012

The race was ugly , and he never recovered from it. He also voted for the ryan budget that was not popular there.

lebkuchen

(10,716 posts)

2. Still, I think his 9 point lead in July and now 9 point loss is a testament

Reply to hrmjustin (Reply #1)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 12:21 PM

Oct 2012

to how so many races will go, in the Senate, House, the WH. At least I hope so. Berg has been in some sort of public office in ND since 1985. He's had a lot of face time as Majority Leader of the state's House. He's gotten some big endorsements. The early prediction that this was to be a safe red state. Now it's being seriously challenged.

Thanks for the background info!

hrmjustin

(71,265 posts)

3. the gop thought as did the democrats at the beginning of the cycle that the seat was...

Reply to lebkuchen (Reply #2)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 12:33 PM

Oct 2012

... a safe gop pickup. They were wrong.

grantcart

(53,061 posts)

4. Interesting. Its good news but not really a change. The same firm had the same numbers in June.

Reply to lebkuchen (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 12:35 PM

Oct 2012

Another case of Ras being way out?

lebkuchen

(10,716 posts)

6. True, though organizations predicting elections take both Rasmussen and Mason/Dixon into account

Reply to grantcart (Reply #4)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 02:14 PM

Oct 2012

Time Magazine considers Rasmussen to weigh more heavily on the conservative side. If it does, that would explain its giving Berg a 9 point advantage over the Mason/Dixon poll showing Berg and Heitkamp basically tied.

If polls help to predict election outcomes, I'm glad we're still seeing a tie. I'd prefer to donate to a close race than one deep in the red.

grantcart

(53,061 posts)

7. In cases like this there is just no way of knowing because there aren't enough polls.

Reply to lebkuchen (Reply #6)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 04:20 PM

Oct 2012

I hope thatt you will bring this up after the election because on or the other has been consistently right and the other wrong.

I suspect Ras but if he is right give him credit. If he is wrong it is a clear example of incompetence.

progressoid

(49,991 posts)

5. Go Heidi Go!

Reply to lebkuchen (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 01:14 PM

Oct 2012

Arkana

(24,347 posts)

8. There are people in North Dakota?

Reply to lebkuchen (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 04:21 PM

Oct 2012

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