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woolldog

(8,791 posts)
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 12:35 PM Oct 2012

A bit of positive polling news:

ABC/Wapo hasn't released their horse-race figures yet, but have released favorablity ratings:

Obama Favorable (55) Unfavorable (44) +11

Romney Favorable (47) unfavorable (51) -4

Obama actually increased his favorablity ratings over the last poll. So did Romney, slightly. Romney was -5 in the last poll. Obama was +7.

Night-to-night data indicate a sizable boost for Romney, and drop for Obama, on Thursday night, a day after their first debate, which Romney widely is seen as having won. But both of those trends subsequently subsided in this poll, conducted Thursday through Sunday.

http://www.langerresearch.com/uploads/1127-45a1FavorabilityNo45a1.pdf


The Wapo excerpt is consistent with all the other data out there which shows that Romney received a substantial bump in the wake of his debate performance. But most of that bump appears to be temporary.

My suggestion: we all settle down, and check in about a week from now on the state of the race. Even if the Wapo numbers turn out to be good for Romney, Obama can make up ground quickly. It would be extremely unusual for a likable incumbent, with the kind of favorability ratings Obama has to lose to a challenger that's underwater in favorability.
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A bit of positive polling news: (Original Post) woolldog Oct 2012 OP
Good call but I am warning people today Shivering Jemmy Oct 2012 #1
How does a polling company go from a five point spread in favor of O Baitball Blogger Oct 2012 #2
They are switching for RV to LV. LisaL Oct 2012 #4
I'm not TOO upset... jenmito Oct 2012 #9
Yes but this could have been put away so quickly. gordianot Oct 2012 #3
The time for recriminations has passed. woolldog Oct 2012 #6
Settle down over polling, yes ... cilla4progress Oct 2012 #5
agree woolldog Oct 2012 #8
k/r Dawson Leery Oct 2012 #7
bump woolldog Oct 2012 #10
Could it be that polling done right after the debate picked up those who had a good Grammy23 Oct 2012 #11

Shivering Jemmy

(900 posts)
1. Good call but I am warning people today
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 12:37 PM
Oct 2012

Not to let Gallup upset them today too. I suspect it will push some over the edge

Baitball Blogger

(46,720 posts)
2. How does a polling company go from a five point spread in favor of O
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 12:42 PM
Oct 2012

and drop to something that favors R in one day, and still call itself reliable?

jenmito

(37,326 posts)
9. I'm not TOO upset...
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 01:03 PM
Oct 2012

Obama-Romney are at 49%-46% among RV and 47%-49% among LV (just -1 and +1 respectively), but Obama's approval-disapproval is at 53%-42%: http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

gordianot

(15,238 posts)
3. Yes but this could have been put away so quickly.
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 12:42 PM
Oct 2012

Watching the debate In real time I had the same feeling that SNL skit wrote several days later. Been there done that myself Obama was distracted.

 

woolldog

(8,791 posts)
6. The time for recriminations has passed.
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 12:44 PM
Oct 2012

I only care about the state of the race going forward. No point in crying about what might've been. (and I mean that respectfully)

cilla4progress

(24,736 posts)
5. Settle down over polling, yes ...
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 12:43 PM
Oct 2012

But not over GOTV, doorbelling, phone banking - working to get this president re-elected!

Grammy23

(5,810 posts)
11. Could it be that polling done right after the debate picked up those who had a good
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 03:48 PM
Oct 2012

Impression of Romney...just based on the optics of the whole thing and his demeanor. Contrasted with Obama's very low key affect and lack of engagement.

Then polling that took place 2-3 days later began to pick up the fact that Romney's LIES were well documented and covered over and over on the news. Well, at least on everything except Fox. So if they read a paper or heard any political news on TV, they may have gotten a little disenchanted with Mitt after the extent of his lies was revealed.

In that case, he would have an initial bump, followed by a cooling off period.

Just wondering.....
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