2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumA bit of positive polling news:
ABC/Wapo hasn't released their horse-race figures yet, but have released favorablity ratings:
Obama Favorable (55) Unfavorable (44) +11
Romney Favorable (47) unfavorable (51) -4
Obama actually increased his favorablity ratings over the last poll. So did Romney, slightly. Romney was -5 in the last poll. Obama was +7.
http://www.langerresearch.com/uploads/1127-45a1FavorabilityNo45a1.pdf
The Wapo excerpt is consistent with all the other data out there which shows that Romney received a substantial bump in the wake of his debate performance. But most of that bump appears to be temporary.
My suggestion: we all settle down, and check in about a week from now on the state of the race. Even if the Wapo numbers turn out to be good for Romney, Obama can make up ground quickly. It would be extremely unusual for a likable incumbent, with the kind of favorability ratings Obama has to lose to a challenger that's underwater in favorability.
Shivering Jemmy
(900 posts)Not to let Gallup upset them today too. I suspect it will push some over the edge
Baitball Blogger
(46,720 posts)and drop to something that favors R in one day, and still call itself reliable?
LisaL
(44,973 posts)jenmito
(37,326 posts)Obama-Romney are at 49%-46% among RV and 47%-49% among LV (just -1 and +1 respectively), but Obama's approval-disapproval is at 53%-42%: http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx
gordianot
(15,238 posts)Watching the debate In real time I had the same feeling that SNL skit wrote several days later. Been there done that myself Obama was distracted.
woolldog
(8,791 posts)I only care about the state of the race going forward. No point in crying about what might've been. (and I mean that respectfully)
cilla4progress
(24,736 posts)But not over GOTV, doorbelling, phone banking - working to get this president re-elected!
woolldog
(8,791 posts)I was only talking about polling.
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)woolldog
(8,791 posts)Grammy23
(5,810 posts)Impression of Romney...just based on the optics of the whole thing and his demeanor. Contrasted with Obama's very low key affect and lack of engagement.
Then polling that took place 2-3 days later began to pick up the fact that Romney's LIES were well documented and covered over and over on the news. Well, at least on everything except Fox. So if they read a paper or heard any political news on TV, they may have gotten a little disenchanted with Mitt after the extent of his lies was revealed.
In that case, he would have an initial bump, followed by a cooling off period.
Just wondering.....